A leading fertiliser executive warns that the ongoing conflict in Iran could jeopardize billions of meals globally, primarily due to disruptions in fertiliser supplies and their key ingredients. Svein Tore Holsether, CEO of Yara, one of the world’s largest fertiliser producers, told the BBC that hostilities in the Gulf, which have obstructed shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, are threatening global food production.
Holsether estimates that the current situation is preventing the production of up to half a million tons of nitrogen fertiliser, which could result in as many as 10 billion meals not being produced weekly. He explained that a reduction in fertiliser use could slash crop yields for some crops by up to 50% in the first season, potentially leading to a global bidding war for food. He urged European nations to consider the severe impact of such a price war on the “most vulnerable” populations in other countries.
While the UK is unlikely to face food shortages, increased costs for food producers are expected to translate into higher weekly food bills within months. The fertiliser market is highly global, with major destinations including Asia, Southeast Asia, Africa, and Latin America, where the most immediate impacts are anticipated. Regions already experiencing under-fertilisation, such as several countries in sub-Saharan Africa, could see even more significant drops in crop yields.
Analysts suggest that the consequences of fertiliser shortages in Asia might not appear in food prices until the end of the year, when harvests planted this spring come in smaller than expected, or fail entirely. Professor Paul Teng, a senior fellow in food security in Singapore, noted that while some countries might have enough fertiliser for the immediate planting season, a prolonged crisis would affect staple crops like rice in the coming months.
Farmers worldwide are grappling with escalating challenges, as the prices they receive for their produce have not yet adjusted to cover rising operational costs, including energy, diesel, and fertiliser.
According to the United Nations, approximately one-third of the world’s fertilisers, including urea, potash, ammonia, and phosphates, typically transit through the Strait of Hormuz. The price of fertiliser has surged by 80% since the beginning of the US and Israel’s war on Iran. Holsether cautioned that a continuation of the conflict could trigger a bidding war for food between wealthier and poorer nations. He highlighted that in such a scenario, “the most vulnerable people pay the highest price for this in developing nations where they cannot afford to follow that,” leading to implications for “food affordability, food scarcity and hunger.”
In the UK, the Food and Drink Federation recently projected food inflation could reach 10% by December, while the Bank of England anticipates it could rise to 4.6% in September, potentially climbing higher later in the year. The UN World Food Programme estimates that the combined fallout from the Middle East conflict could push an additional 45 million people into acute hunger by 2026, with food insecurity in Asia and the Pacific expected to see the largest relative increase of any region, rising by 24%.
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