Security around Beijing’s historic Tiananmen Square has been heightened for days, with anticipation building for a significant, choreographed event. Preparations for this major occasion began subtly, but China appears ready to host US President Donald Trump with a grand display.
The visit is slated to include high-level talks, a state banquet, and a tour of the Temple of Heaven, an ancient complex where emperors once prayed for bountiful harvests. Both President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping will be hoping the visit yields positive outcomes. This summit between the world’s two most powerful leaders is poised to be one of the most consequential encounters in years, shaping the trajectory of superpower relations for the foreseeable future.
Key Stakes in US-China Relations
For months, US-China relations had taken a backseat for Trump, whose focus was on the ongoing situation with Iran, military operations in the Western Hemisphere, and domestic concerns. However, this week marks a significant shift. The future of global trade, rising tensions surrounding Taiwan, and intense competition in advanced technologies are all critical issues on the agenda.
Economically, the ongoing trade dynamics with the US and the situation in Iran might present challenges for Xi. Still, from an ideological and political standpoint, these circumstances could be perceived as advantageous, allowing him to negotiate from a position of strength. This visit has the potential to lay the groundwork for either future cooperation or increased conflict in the years ahead.
China’s Role in the Iran Conflict
China has been quietly attempting to position itself as a peacemaker amidst the ongoing conflict, which is now in its third month. Beijing has joined Pakistan in mediating efforts regarding the US-Israel war against Iran. Officials in Beijing and Islamabad presented a five-point plan in March, aiming to achieve a ceasefire and facilitate the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Behind the scenes, Chinese officials have reportedly been gently encouraging their Iranian counterparts towards negotiation.
Despite its consistent display of strength, there is little doubt that China is eager for an end to this conflict. The country’s economy is already grappling with slower growth and higher unemployment. Rising oil prices have driven up the cost of petrochemical-based items, from textiles to plastics, with some Chinese producers experiencing cost increases of up to 20%. While China possesses significant oil reserves and its leadership in renewables and electric vehicles has offered some insulation from the fuel crisis, the conflict is adding strain to a sluggish Chinese economy heavily reliant on exports. However, if China is to assist the US, it will likely seek concessions in return.
The visit of Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi to Beijing last week appeared to underscore China’s influence in the Middle East. The US observed closely, with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stating, “I hope the Chinese tell him what he needs to be told. And that is that what you are doing in the Strait is causing you to be globally isolated. You’re the bad guy in this.” The US has also sought to prevent China from blocking a new UN Security Council resolution condemning actions against ships in Hormuz, following earlier vetoes by China and Russia. Ali Wyne, Senior Research and Advocacy Advisor for US-China relations at International Crisis Group, noted, “I think if we’re going to bring Iran back to the negotiating table in an enduring way, I think that the United States recognises that China is going to play some role.” Trump, for his part, has seemingly remained unconcerned by China’s close ties with Tehran. While the US recently sanctioned a China-based refinery for transporting Iranian oil, the president last week downplayed any Chinese support for Iran during the conflict, stating, “It is what it is, right? We do things, too, against them.”
The Future of Taiwan
The Trump administration has sent mixed signals regarding Taiwan. Last December, the US announced an $11 billion arms deal with Taiwan, a move that angered the Chinese government. However, Trump has also downplayed the US’s willingness to defend Taiwan, which China claims as its own territory. He remarked of Xi, “He considers it to be a part of China, and that’s up to him, what he’s going to be doing.” Trump has also criticized Taiwan for not adequately reimbursing the US for security guarantees, stating it “doesn’t give us anything.” Last year, he imposed a 15% tariff on Taiwan and accused it of stealing semiconductor manufacturing from the US.
Last week, Rubio confirmed that Taiwan would be a topic of conversation during the visit, with the goal of ensuring the issue does not become a new source of tension between the two superpowers. “We don’t need any destabilising events to occur with regards to Taiwan or anywhere in the Indo-Pacific,” he said, adding that this is “to the mutual benefit of both the United States and the Chinese.” China, for its part, has signaled Taiwan as a priority. Foreign Minister Wang Yi expressed hope that the US would make the “right choices” during a call with Rubio. Beijing has intensified its military pressure by sending warplanes and naval vessels around Taiwan almost daily.
Some analysts believe Chinese officials may push for a change in the carefully drafted 1982 wording on Taiwan. Washington’s current policy states it does not support Taiwan independence. Beijing might seek stronger language, such as “the US opposes Taiwan independence.” However, John Delury, a senior fellow from the Centre on US-China Relations at the Asia Society, believes, “I just don’t think that President Xi is going to go for that. Even if Trump says something kind of left field that looks like some capitulation on Taiwan, because he’s not so careful with his use of language, the Chinese know better than to put much stock in that, because he can reverse it with a Truth Social post a week later.”
Critical Trade Discussions
For much of 2025, the US and China appeared on the brink of a new trade war, threatening to shake the global economy. Trump repeatedly adjusted tariffs on America’s largest trading partner, at times reaching over 100%. China retaliated by curtailing rare earth mineral exports to the US and reducing purchases of American agricultural exports, impacting farmers in key Trump-voting states. Tensions have significantly cooled since Trump and Xi met in South Korea last October. The February Supreme Court decision limiting the president’s unilateral tariff power also helped temper Trump’s more unpredictable trade instincts.
Despite the calmer atmosphere, Trump and Xi will have much to discuss. The American leader will push for increased Chinese purchases of US agricultural products. China will likely pressure the US to drop a recently announced trade probe into unfair business practices, which could empower Trump to reimpose higher tariffs on Chinese goods. This will be a delicate issue for the American side. Michael O’Hanlan, Phil Knight Chair in Defense and Strategy at the Brookings Institute, commented, “It could be tough for the US to give up investigations of all unfair Chinese trade practices given how widespread and distorting the latter still are.” Reuters reported that the Trump administration is inviting CEOs from major companies like Nvidia, Apple, Exxon, and Boeing to accompany him on this visit. While China is less reliant on the US for trade than during Trump’s first term, Xi will want a successful meeting to ensure global economic stability. China is now the leading trade partner for over 120 countries, but Xi will be careful not to appear overly confident during Trump’s visit. Ryan Hass, Director of the John L Thornton China Centre at the Brookings Institute, warned, “So long as the visit proceeds smoothly and Trump concludes he was treated respectfully, then the uneasy calm in the bilateral relationship will endure. If, on the other hand, Trump leaves feeling disrespected or trifled with, then he could have a change of heart.”
The Race for Technological Dominance
China is actively pursuing leadership in future technologies, investing heavily in AI and humanoid robots. These initiatives are part of what Xi describes as “new productive forces,” intended to propel China’s economy forward. Many US policymakers, however, believe official Chinese policy involves co-opting or outright stealing US technology to advance domestic industries. This belief has led to restrictions on the export of the latest microprocessors, despite objections from American manufacturers. The successful resolution of the complex issue surrounding Chinese ownership and operation of the popular social media app TikTok was a rare positive outcome for US-China technology interactions, which are often fraught with accusations and suspicion.
This dynamic is particularly evident in the race to develop AI systems, arguably the most crucial technological advancement of modern times. The issue is complicated by US accusations that Chinese companies like DeepSeek are stealing American AI. Yingyi Ma, from the John L Thornton China Centre at the Brookings Institute, stated, “An opening chapter of an AI cold war is emerging. The White House has accused China of ‘industrial scale’ theft of American AI models, while Beijing reportedly moved to prevent Meta from acquiring Manus, a Chinese-founded AI start-up now based in Singapore. The deeper contest is not over who copies whose model, but over the talent capable of building the next generation of frontier AI.” While Chinese companies show prowess in building robot bodies, many are still developing the sophisticated programming for their creations. To build the best, Chinese companies require high-end computer chips, which are primarily sourced from the US. This is where Beijing could leverage its control over rare earths, a critical sector that Trump demonstrably values. China processes approximately 90% of the world’s rare earth minerals, essential for all modern technology, from smartphones to wind farms and jet engines. A potential deal could emerge: Chinese rare earths in exchange for high-end US chips. This represents China’s own strategic choke point, akin to the Strait of Hormuz, allowing it to control supply at any time.
For all the policy ground the two sides must cover, Trump’s visit will be a whirlwind tour, with meetings and events scheduled for Thursday and Friday. There may not be ample time for the two leaders to reach substantive agreements, but even such a brief encounter could set the trajectory for negotiations and relations between the two superpowers for years to come.
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