Cheering children, a military honor guard, cannon fire, and a marching band – the welcome for Vladimir Putin outside the Great Hall of the People was a near mirror image of the reception for Donald Trump just last week. These two high-stakes presidential visits, occurring just days apart, project the image Xi Jinping desires for the world: engaging with everyone, yet tied to no one. For China, these visits serve as proof that due to its massive economy and newfound diplomatic influence, all roads now lead to Beijing.
Samir Puri from King’s College London notes, ‘The new era of world affairs is less centered around the West.’ He adds, ‘There is a lot of latent power that China has on the world stage; it’s not necessarily using it in its most direct form to settle conflicts. Instead, China’s style is to try to utilize its stature in a more gradual sense.’
The optics were strikingly similar – Xi appeared confident in the spotlight as he played host. However, the political dynamics driving the two visits were distinctly different.
Putin, who has visited China over 20 times, seems to share a close personal relationship with Xi. Yet, the conflict in Ukraine and Western sanctions have compelled him to lean heavily on Beijing, which has become Russia’s top trading partner and its primary customer for oil and gas. This has been an unequal partnership for some time, a dynamic reinforced during the recent talks. Discussions concluded with over 20 agreements on trade and technology, but notably, no approval was granted for the long-stalled Russian gas pipeline that Putin has advocated for years. A lengthy joint statement also failed to produce any major breakthroughs.
Dr. Zheng Runyu, from the Centre for Russian Studies at East China Normal University in Shanghai, observes, ‘Both China and Russia need each other, but Russia clearly needs China more than before on the global stage.’ He further states, ‘Given today’s international environment, deep cooperation with China is extremely important for Russia in dealing with many of its current challenges.’
The Chinese leader also appeared to hold a strong hand in negotiations with the US president. Enhanced trade relationships globally and China’s dominance in rare earth minerals and advanced manufacturing have provided significant leverage. Beijing has found itself on a more equal footing with Washington, particularly in the wake of Trump’s unpredictable foreign policy.
In discussions with both Trump and Putin, Xi engaged with leaders embroiled in costly conflicts that have persisted longer than anticipated. For Trump, the conflict in the Middle East evolved into a global crisis, significantly impacting his approval ratings domestically. For Putin, the invasion of Ukraine, now in its fifth year, has led to Russia’s isolation and exacted a brutal toll on its own populace.
In both scenarios, it became apparent that China now possesses the power to set the tone and terms for its engagement on the global stage. This marks a remarkable turnaround for a country that, just five years ago, seemed on the verge of diplomatic isolation.
Its borders were closed due to a pandemic that then-President Trump had labeled a ‘Chinese virus.’ Relations with the West had sharply deteriorated amidst the rise of ‘wolf warrior’ diplomacy, characterized by aggressive rhetoric from Chinese diplomats and state media against Western critics. International criticism also mounted over alleged human rights abuses in Xinjiang and Beijing’s increasing control over Hong Kong, leading Western governments to impose sanctions and export controls on Chinese goods. China responded with countermeasures.
Yet, five years later, China has successfully repositioned itself as an indispensable center of global diplomacy and trade. Rather than being viewed as a problem to contain, China has emerged as a power to engage with.
Beijing has moderated its diplomatic style, likely recognizing uncomfortable realities. Its economic slowdown necessitates more foreign investment and trade, which in turn require stable international ties. Furthermore, its previously confrontational approach was pushing important regional trading partners, such as South Korea, the Philippines, and Vietnam, closer to Washington.
The timing has also been crucial. Since the US elected Donald Trump, China has worked to repair ties with Australia, Canada, and the UK – all key US allies. World leaders, including those from Canada, the UK, and Germany, have since walked Beijing’s red carpet to forge deals with the world’s second-largest economy.
For the past decade, Xi has promised his people to work towards ‘the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.’ This past week has served as an incredible piece of domestic propaganda: the Chinese leader appeared as the man everyone wants to meet.
Limits of China’s Diplomatic Power
However, these visits also highlight the limits of China’s diplomatic power.
A Diplomatic Tightrope
Xi explicitly mentioned only one conflict – the ongoing situation in the Middle East. He conveyed to Putin that a complete end to the conflict in the Middle East was of ‘utmost urgency,’ while notably making no reference to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Both Xi and Putin jointly condemned ‘treacherous military strikes against other countries, the hypocritical use of negotiations as cover for preparing such strikes, the assassination of leaders of sovereign states, the destabilization of the domestic political situation in these states and the provocation of regime change, and the brazen kidnapping of national leaders for trial.’
This stance was jarring and may have consequences beyond the Great Hall of the People. As China advocates for an end to conflicts elsewhere and critiques US actions, its silence on Ukraine, where hundreds of thousands have died, will undoubtedly raise questions in Europe regarding Beijing’s willingness or ability to act as a genuinely even-handed global player.
Beijing has attempted to maintain a neutral stance regarding the conflict in Ukraine, despite persistent calls from both the US and Europe for China to sever the economic lifeline it provides to Moscow. China fears losing a key ally should Russia face defeat in the conflict and is also concerned about potential instability in such a large neighboring country.
Samir Puri commented, ‘Obviously, Xi Jinping could take the easier way out and say nothing about it. Of course, tacitly this means – Russia, carry on with your invasion. If there’s any discussion about what a ceasefire or post-war future might look like, I would be surprised. I think it’s still a very ambiguous issue as to whether China wants to use its influence with regards to Russia’s conflict in Ukraine.’
In contrast, the escalating regional tensions affecting the Strait of Hormuz pose a threat to Chinese interests. While Beijing holds oil stockpiles, there appears to be no immediate end to the crisis impacting this vital shipping lane. Calling for an end to one conflict while remaining silent on another impacts Xi’s credibility as China endeavors to assume a more central role on the world stage. This selective engagement also risks relations with Europe at a time when Beijing is actively seeking to strengthen those ties to bolster its export-reliant economy.
However striking the past week of high-level diplomacy may appear, Xi still faces a significant challenge. China’s authoritarian leadership, which has only consolidated under Xi, remains controversial and is viewed with mistrust by many.
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