Throughout US President Donald Trump’s second term in office, a notable pattern has emerged: traders have been placing millions of dollars in bets just before the president makes significant public announcements. The BBC has conducted an examination of trade volume data across several financial markets, correlating these with some of President Trump’s most impactful market-moving statements.
This analysis revealed a consistent trend of trading spikes occurring mere hours, and sometimes even minutes, before a social media post or media interview was made public. Some financial analysts suggest these patterns bear the hallmarks of illegal insider trading, where individuals make financial bets based on privileged information not yet available to the general public. Others, however, argue that the situation is more complex, suggesting that some traders have simply become more adept at anticipating the president’s interventions.
Here are five of the most significant examples highlighted by the investigation:
9 March 2026: ‘The war is very complete, pretty much’
Some of the most substantial movements were observed in oil trades on the futures market. Amidst ongoing geopolitical developments, nine days into a period of heightened tensions, President Trump informed CBS News in a phone interview that a particular conflict was “very complete, pretty much.”
- 18:29 GMT: Oil bets surge
- 19:16 GMT: Trump states the conflict is nearly complete
- 19:17 GMT: Oil prices drop by 25%
The public first learned of the interview at 15:16 Eastern Time (19:16 GMT) when the reporter shared it on X. Oil traders reacted to the news of a potential early end to the conflict by selling oil, leading to a significant price plunge of approximately 25%. However, market data indicates a massive surge of bets placed on oil prices falling at 18:29 GMT – a full 47 minutes before the reporter’s public post. Traders who placed these early bets would have potentially earned millions of dollars from the subsequent oil price movement.
23 March 2026: ‘Complete and total resolution to hostilities’
On 23 March, following earlier strong statements regarding infrastructure, President Trump posted on Truth Social that Washington had engaged in “VERY GOOD AND PRODUCTIVE CONVERSATIONS” with Tehran, aiming for a “COMPLETE AND TOTAL RESOLUTION” to hostilities. This announcement came as a major surprise to both diplomatic observers and traders.
- 10:48-10:50 GMT: Oil bets surge
- 11:04 GMT: Trump posts about a “total resolution” to hostilities
- 11:05 GMT: Oil prices drop by 11%
Immediately after the post, stocks rose, and the US benchmark price of oil, which had been climbing, fell sharply. As the BBC reported at the time, an unusually high number of bets on the US oil price were placed 14 minutes before the president’s post. The same pattern was observed in traders buying contracts for Brent crude, another major oil benchmark. An oil analyst described these trades as “abnormal, for sure.”
9 April 2025: ‘Liberation Day’ pause
Beyond geopolitical events, other trading activities have raised concerns. On 2 April of the previous year, Trump announced what he termed Liberation Day – a comprehensive set of tariffs on goods from nearly every country globally, causing stock markets worldwide to plunge. However, a week later, when Trump declared a 90-day “pause” on these levies for all countries except China, stock markets soared. The benchmark S&P 500 index jumped by 9.5%, marking one of its largest single-day gains since the Second World War.
- 18:00 BST: Traders begin placing large bets on the stock market rising
- 18:18 BST: Trump announces tariffs pause
- 18:19 BST: Stock market begins historic surge
Again, a pattern of unusual trading preceded these events, with an exceptionally high number of bets placed on a fund tracking the S&P 500 before the announcement. The number of contracts traded surged to over 10,000 per minute just after 18:00 BST, a stark contrast to the hundreds traded earlier in the day. Some traders reportedly bet over $2 million on the stock market increasing that day, despite seven consecutive days of losses, potentially generating profits of almost $20 million. Later that week, several senior Democrats in the US Senate urged the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to investigate whether the president’s announcements “enriched administration insiders and friends at the expense of the American public.” The SEC declined to comment on these allegations, and the White House did not respond to the BBC’s request for comment on the unusual trading activities.
3 Jan 2026: Maduro removed from office
The recent growth of online predictions markets has also drawn scrutiny. Blockchain-powered platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi allow users to speculate on various events. Donald Trump Jr., President Trump’s son, is an investor in Polymarket and sits on its advisory board, also serving as a strategic advisor to Kalshi. He has been contacted by the BBC for comment.
- Dec 2025: Burdensome-Mix account created
- 2 Jan 2026: Account places $32,000 on Maduro being ousted
- 3 Jan 2026: Maduro is removed from office and Burdensome-Mix wins $436,000
In December 2025, a user named Burdensome-Mix created an account on Polymarket. On 30 December, the account placed its first bet on Venezuela’s President Nicolás Maduro being out of office by the end of January 2026. Between 30 December and 2 January, Burdensome-Mix placed a total of $32,500 on this position. When Maduro was removed from office the following day, Burdensome-Mix won $436,000. Shortly thereafter, the account changed its username and has not placed any bets since.
28 Feb 2026: Military actions involving Iran
According to the blockchain analysis website Bubblemaps, six accounts were created on Polymarket in February.
- Feb 2026: Six accounts created on Polymarket
- 28 Feb: Accounts win $1.2 million between them
All these accounts placed wagers on a US military action against Iran occurring by 28 February. When such actions were confirmed by President Trump in the early hours of that day, the accounts collectively earned $1.2 million. Five of these six users have placed no further bets, but one account’s recent activity shows it subsequently made $163,000 by correctly betting on a US-Iran ceasefire by 7 April, which was announced by Washington and Tehran on that day.
Polymarket stated to the BBC that it “sets, maintains, and enforces the highest standards of market integrity,” adding that it “proactively” works with regulators and law enforcement. In March of this year, both Polymarket and Kalshi introduced new rules to combat insider trading. Predictions markets fall under the jurisdiction of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The CFTC did not respond to a BBC request for comment, but its chair recently told a Congressional committee that his organization had “zero tolerance” for fraud and insider trading. It has also come to light that the White House sent an internal email to staff last month, cautioning them against using insider information for bets on predictions markets. Spokesman Davis Ingle told the BBC at the time that “any implication that Administration officials are engaged in such activity without evidence is baseless and irresponsible reporting.”
Hard to Prove
Insider trading has been illegal for most Americans since the Securities Act was passed in 1933, and its scope was extended to cover US government officials in 2012. However, to date, no one has been prosecuted under this specific law. Paul Oudin, a professor specializing in financial regulation law at the ESSEC Business School, notes that these rules are challenging to enforce. “The financial authorities will not carry out a prosecution if they can’t figure out who the source of information is,” says Oudin. None of the US financial authorities contacted by the BBC acknowledged any of the allegations of insider trading. “You can have massive trades on a financial instrument that clearly show that someone was privy to what Donald Trump was about to declare,” Oudin explains, “Yet there is a strong chance that no-one will be prosecuted.”
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