ABD Hazine Bakan\u0131 Scott Bessent, BBC’ye yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamada, uzun vadeli uluslararas\u0131 g\u00fcvenlik i\u00e7in “k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck bir ekonomik ac\u0131n\u0131n” \u00e7ekilmeye de\u011fer oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi.
\nUluslararas\u0131 Para Fonu (IMF), ABD-\u0130srail’in \u0130ran ile sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131n k\u00fcresel ekonomiyi resesyona s\u00fcr\u00fckleyebilece\u011fi uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulunurken, Bessent, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n \u0130ran’\u0131n Bat\u0131 ba\u015fkentlerine y\u00f6nelik n\u00fckleer sald\u0131r\u0131 tehdidini ortadan kald\u0131rmak amac\u0131yla yap\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti.
\n“E\u011fer bir n\u00fckleer silah Londra’y\u0131 vursayd\u0131, k\u00fcresel GSY\u0130H’ye etkisi ne olurdu merak ediyorum… Uzun vadeli g\u00fcvenlik i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli tahminler konusunda daha az endi\u015feliyim” dedi.
\n\u00dcst d\u00fczey ABD’li yetkililere g\u00f6re, sava\u015f\u0131n ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131nda \u0130ran %60 oran\u0131nda zenginle\u015ftirilmi\u015f uranyuma sahipti. Ancak n\u00fckleer silahlara sahip de\u011fil.
\n\u0130ngiltere h\u00fck\u00fcmeti, \u0130ran’\u0131n Avrupa’y\u0131 f\u00fczelerle hedef almaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair “herhangi bir de\u011ferlendirme olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131” belirtti.
\nBessent, BBC’ye yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamada, ekonomik darbeden ziyade \u0130ran’\u0131n k\u00fcresel g\u00fcvenli\u011fe y\u00f6nelik olu\u015fturdu\u011fu risk konusunda daha az endi\u015feli oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi.
\n“Alabilece\u011finiz en b\u00fcy\u00fck risk, ald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 bilmedi\u011finiz risktir.”
\n“\u015eimdi kesin olarak biliyoruz ki, \u0130ranl\u0131lar Diego Garcia’y\u0131 vurdu\u011funda, Londra’ya ula\u015fabilecek orta menzilli k\u0131talararas\u0131 balistik f\u00fczelere sahipler ve n\u00fckleer bir program istediklerini de biliyoruz” dedi.
\nABD ve \u0130srail sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n, \u0130ran’\u0131n Bat\u0131 \u00fclkelerine y\u00f6nelik n\u00fckleer sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n “kuyruk riskini” ortadan kald\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 da ekledi.
\nBBC’nin daha \u00f6nce bildirdi\u011fi gibi, \u0130ran balistik f\u00fczelerinin Londra’ya y\u00f6nelik tehdidi uzakt\u0131r.
\nBir \u0130ngiltere h\u00fck\u00fcmeti s\u00f6zc\u00fcs\u00fc \u015funlar\u0131 s\u00f6yledi: “\u0130ran’\u0131n Avrupa’y\u0131 f\u00fczelerle hedef almaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair bir de\u011ferlendirme yok.”
\n“Ancak \u0130ngiltere’yi topraklar\u0131m\u0131zda veya yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan gelebilecek her t\u00fcrl\u00fc sald\u0131r\u0131dan korumak i\u00e7in ihtiyac\u0131m\u0131z olan askeri yetene\u011fe sahibiz. Tehdit ne olursa olsun \u00fclkeyi savunmaya haz\u0131r\u0131z.”
\nIMF, D\u00fcnya Ekonomik G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm raporunda, en k\u00f6t\u00fc senaryoda \u2013 petrol, gaz ve g\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n bu y\u0131l ve gelecek y\u0131l zirve yap\u0131p y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131 durumunda \u2013 k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin 2026’da %2’nin alt\u0131na d\u00fc\u015febilece\u011fini belirtti.
\nRaporda, “Bu, 1980’den bu yana sadece d\u00f6rt kez ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen k\u00fcresel bir resesyon i\u00e7in k\u0131l pay\u0131 bir durum anlam\u0131na gelir” denildi ve en sonuncusunun Covid pandemisi s\u0131ras\u0131nda ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131 hat\u0131rlat\u0131ld\u0131.
\nSava\u015f\u0131n alt\u0131 haftadan uzun bir s\u00fcre \u00f6nce ba\u015flamas\u0131ndan bu yana, kilit H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 nakliye rotas\u0131n\u0131n fiilen kapanmas\u0131 ve ABD ile \u0130ran aras\u0131ndaki bar\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinin ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z olmas\u0131yla enerji fiyatlar\u0131 f\u0131rlad\u0131.
\nIMF \u015funlar\u0131 s\u00f6yledi: “Bir kez daha, k\u00fcresel ekonomi rotas\u0131ndan \u00e7\u0131kma tehdidiyle kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya \u2013 bu kez 2026 \u015eubat sonunda Orta Do\u011fu’da sava\u015f\u0131n patlak vermesiyle.”
\nD\u00fcnya \u00e7ap\u0131nda bir yava\u015flamaya yol a\u00e7abilecek en \u015fiddetli ko\u015fullar\u0131n, petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n bu y\u0131l ortalama 110 dolar varile ula\u015fmas\u0131 ve 2027’de 125 dolar\u0131 bulmas\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti.
\nBu varsay\u0131mlara dayanarak, IMF enflasyonun gelecek y\u0131l %6’ya kadar \u00e7\u0131kabilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Bu durum, merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131 fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131 yava\u015flatmak i\u00e7in faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rmaya zorlayabilir.
\nIMF ba\u015fekonomisti Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, BBC’ye yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamada, uzun s\u00fcreli bir \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n enflasyon sarmal\u0131na yol a\u00e7aca\u011f\u0131n\u0131, i\u015fsizli\u011fi art\u0131raca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve baz\u0131 \u00fclkelerde g\u0131da g\u00fcvensizli\u011fine neden olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi.
\n\u00c7at\u0131\u015fma bug\u00fcn sona erse bile, petrol arz\u0131 \u00fczerindeki etkinin, 1970’lerdeki petrol krizinin sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 kadar b\u00fcy\u00fck olaca\u011f\u0131 konusunda uyard\u0131; o d\u00f6nemde Arap petrol \u00fcreticileri, Yom Kippur Sava\u015f\u0131 s\u0131ras\u0131nda \u0130srail’i destekleyen ABD ve di\u011fer \u00fclkelere ambargo uygulam\u0131\u015ft\u0131.
\nAncak Gourinchas, d\u00fcnyan\u0131n art\u0131k petrol ve fosil yak\u0131tlara daha az ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 oldu\u011funu, bu nedenle t\u00fcketiciler \u00fczerindeki etkinin daha az \u015fiddetli olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti.
\n\u0130ran \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 s\u0131ras\u0131nda petrol 120 dolara yakla\u015fm\u0131\u015f, ancak o zamandan beri geri \u00e7ekilmi\u015f olsa da sava\u015f \u00f6ncesi seviyelerin \u00fczerinde kalmaya devam ediyor ve Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc bir varil ham petrol 95 dolardan i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc.
\nDahas\u0131, IMF, resesyon riskinin ancak \u015fiddetli ko\u015fullar\u0131n iki y\u0131l boyunca devam etmesi halinde artaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti.
\n\u00c7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki birka\u00e7 hafta i\u00e7inde \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmesi ve Orta Do\u011fu’dan enerji \u00fcretimi ve ihracat\u0131n\u0131n bu y\u0131l\u0131n ortas\u0131na kadar normalle\u015fmeye ba\u015flamas\u0131 halinde, k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin 2026 i\u00e7in %3,1’e gerileyece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.
\nBu, daha \u00f6nceki %3,3’l\u00fck tahminden daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck. Gelecek y\u0131l i\u00e7in k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminini de %3,2’de sabit b\u0131rakt\u0131.
\nD\u00fcnyan\u0131n geli\u015fmi\u015f ekonomileri aras\u0131nda, IMF, \u0130ngiltere’nin \u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131ndan kaynaklanan enerji \u015fokundan en \u00e7ok etkilenece\u011fini tahmin etti.
\n\u0130ngiltere’nin bu y\u0131lki b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminini \u00f6nceki %1,3’l\u00fck tahminden %0,8’e d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc. Ancak, \u0130ngiltere’nin daha sonra %1,3’l\u00fck bir ekonomik geni\u015fleme ile toparlanmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor.
\nIMF tahminlerine g\u00f6re, K\u00f6rfez’deki petrol ihra\u00e7 eden \u00fclkeler bu y\u0131l ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmede keskin bir yava\u015flama, hatta bir daralma ya\u015fayabilir.
\n\u0130ran ekonomisinin bu y\u0131l %6,1 oran\u0131nda k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclece\u011fini tahmin ediyor.
\nAncak, sava\u015f\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki birka\u00e7 hafta i\u00e7inde sona ermesi ko\u015fuluyla 2027’de %3,2’lik bir toparlanma \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Bu hi\u00e7 de kesin de\u011fil. Pazar g\u00fcn\u00fc ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump, ihracat\u0131 durdurmak i\u00e7in \u0130ran limanlar\u0131na ABD ablukas\u0131 ilan etti.
\nKatar gibi \u00f6nemli bir s\u0131v\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f do\u011fal gaz (LNG) tedarik\u00e7isi olan baz\u0131 \u00fclkeler, \u0130ran taraf\u0131ndan f\u00fczeler ve insans\u0131z hava ara\u00e7lar\u0131yla hedef al\u0131nd\u0131.
\nD\u00fcnyan\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck LNG rafinerisi olan Katar’daki Ras Laffan vuruldu ve bir s\u00fcre tam kapasiteyle \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 beklenmiyor.
\n“Orta Do\u011fu’daki baz\u0131 ekonomilerin bu y\u0131l daralmas\u0131 bekleniyor” ba\u015fl\u0131kl\u0131 bir \u00e7ubuk grafik, Orta Do\u011fu \u00fclkelerinin 2026 ve 2027 y\u0131llar\u0131 i\u00e7in GSY\u0130H b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminlerini g\u00f6steriyor. Umman’\u0131n tahminleri s\u0131ras\u0131yla %3,5 ve %3,4, Suudi Arabistan’\u0131n %3,1 ve %4,5, BAE’nin %3,1 ve %5,3, Bahreyn’in %-0,5 ve %4,5, Kuveyt’in %-0,6 ve %2,8, \u0130ran’\u0131n %-6,1 ve %3,2, Irak’\u0131n %-6,8 ve %11,3 ve Katar’\u0131n %-8,6 ve %8,6 idi. Kaynak IMF’dir.
\nIMF, Katar ekonomisinin 2026’da %8,6 oran\u0131nda daralaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131, ard\u0131ndan gelecek y\u0131l %8,6’l\u0131k bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme ile toparlanaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tahmin ediyor.
\nAyr\u0131ca, \u0130ran’\u0131n kom\u015fusu Irak’\u0131n bu y\u0131l sava\u015ftan ekonomik bir darbe alaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve %6,8’lik bir yava\u015flama ya\u015fayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Ancak 2027’de %11,3’l\u00fck bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme ile toparlanmas\u0131 bekleniyor.
\nIMF, bir \u00fclkenin ekonomik dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n enerji altyap\u0131s\u0131na verilen zarar, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131’na ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131k ve alternatif ihracat yollar\u0131n\u0131n mevcudiyeti dahil olmak \u00fczere bir dizi fakt\u00f6re ba\u011fl\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti.
\n\u00d6rne\u011fin Suudi Arabistan, Basra K\u00f6rfezi’nden K\u0131z\u0131ldeniz’e uzanan ve g\u00fcnde 7 milyon varile kadar petrol pompalayabilen Do\u011fu-Bat\u0131 boru hatt\u0131na sahip.
\nSuudi Arabistan’\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi 2026’da yava\u015flayacak ancak ekonominin hala %3,1 oran\u0131nda geni\u015flemesi ve gelecek y\u0131l %4,5 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi bekleniyor.
\nIMF, \u00e7o\u011fu Orta Do\u011fu petrol ihracat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n gelecek y\u0131l “enerji \u00fcretimi ve ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki birka\u00e7 ay i\u00e7inde normalle\u015fece\u011fi varsay\u0131m\u0131na dayanarak” bir y\u00fckseli\u015f ya\u015fayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tahmin etti.
\nAncak, bu varsay\u0131m\u0131n “\u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n s\u00fcresi uzar ve u\u011fran\u0131lan hasar\u0131n derecesi yeniden de\u011ferlendirilirse revize edilmesi gerekebilece\u011fi” konusunda uyard\u0131.
\nIMF ayr\u0131ca \u00c7in’in bu y\u0131lki ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentilerini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrerek, Ocak ay\u0131nda tahmin etti\u011fi %4,5’lik art\u0131\u015ftan %4,4’e gerileyece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc.
\n\u00c7in ekonomisinin 2027’de %4 b\u00fcy\u00fcyece\u011fi tahmini de\u011fi\u015fmedi.
\nIMF tahminlerine g\u00f6re, petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015ftan faydalanan bir \u00fclke de Rusya oldu.
\nRus ekonomisinin bu y\u0131l ve gelecek y\u0131l s\u0131ras\u0131yla %0,8 ve %1’lik \u00f6nceki tahminlerin \u00fczerinde, %1,1 oran\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi bekleniyor.
\nRusya, d\u00f6rt y\u0131ldan uzun bir s\u00fcre \u00f6nce Ukrayna’y\u0131 tam \u00f6l\u00e7ekli i\u015fgal etmesinin ard\u0131ndan bir dizi yapt\u0131r\u0131mla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kalm\u0131\u015ft\u0131.
\nMart ay\u0131nda Trump, k\u00fcresel fiyatlar f\u0131rlarken Rus petrol ihracat\u0131na y\u00f6nelik k\u0131s\u0131tlamalar\u0131 kald\u0131rd\u0131.
\nAyr\u0131ca, 140 milyon varil \u0130ran petrol\u00fcne uygulanan yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 30 g\u00fcn s\u00fcreyle ge\u00e7ici olarak kald\u0131rd\u0131.
\nAvrupa Maliye Komiseri, Rusya’ya kar\u015f\u0131 yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 hafifleten \u00fclkelere kar\u015f\u0131 uyar\u0131da bulunarak, \u00fclkenin “bu sava\u015ftan kazanan olarak \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131” savundu.
\nValdis Dombrovskis, Washington’daki IMF zirvesi kapsam\u0131nda d\u00fczenlenen bir etkinlikte, “Enerji fiyatlar\u0131 y\u00fckseldi ve bu, Rusya’n\u0131n sava\u015f makinesi i\u00e7in ek gelir sa\u011fl\u0131yor” dedi.
\n“\u015eimdi Rusya \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131y\u0131 hafifletme zaman\u0131 de\u011fil.”
\n#\u0130ran #K\u00fcreselG\u00fcvenlik #Ekonomi #IMF #PetrolFiyatlar\u0131 #Ortado\u011fu #ABD #N\u00fckleerTehdit #Sava\u015f #Resesyon<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
ABD Hazine Bakan\u0131 Scott Bessent, BBC’ye yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamada, uzun vadeli uluslararas\u0131 g\u00fcvenlik i\u00e7in “k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck bir ekonomik ac\u0131n\u0131n” \u00e7ekilmeye de\u011fer oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi. Uluslararas\u0131 Para Fonu (IMF), ABD-\u0130srail’in \u0130ran ile sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131n k\u00fcresel ekonomiyi resesyona s\u00fcr\u00fckleyebilece\u011fi uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulunurken, Bessent, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n \u0130ran’\u0131n Bat\u0131 ba\u015fkentlerine y\u00f6nelik n\u00fckleer sald\u0131r\u0131 tehdidini ortadan kald\u0131rmak amac\u0131yla yap\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti. “E\u011fer bir n\u00fckleer silah Londra’y\u0131 vursayd\u0131, […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1053,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[24],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1052","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-iran_haberler"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1052","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1052"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1052\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/1053"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1052"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1052"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1052"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}