Uluslararas\u0131 Para Fonu (IMF), ABD ile \u0130ran aras\u0131ndaki gerilimin k\u00fcresel enerji ve g\u0131da maliyetlerini art\u0131rmas\u0131 nedeniyle k\u00fcresel ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc.
\nIMF Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamada, k\u00fcresel ekonominin bu y\u0131l y\u00fczde 3,1 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesini bekledi\u011fini belirtti. Bu oran, ABD ve \u0130srail’in 28 \u015eubat’ta \u0130ran’a kar\u015f\u0131 sava\u015f ba\u015flatmas\u0131ndan \u00f6nce yay\u0131nlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fczde 3,3’l\u00fck \u00f6nceki tahmine g\u00f6re bir yava\u015flamay\u0131 temsil ediyor.
\nO zamandan beri \u0130ran, petrol ve gaz tedarikleri i\u00e7in kritik bir ge\u00e7i\u015f noktas\u0131 olan H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131’n\u0131 kapatarak ve b\u00f6lgedeki enerji altyap\u0131s\u0131na sald\u0131rarak misilleme yapt\u0131. Bu durum, petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fckseltti ve petrol ile gaz tedarikini k\u0131s\u0131tlad\u0131; bu geli\u015fmeler, bu ithalatlara en \u00e7ok ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 \u00fclkeleri \u00f6zellikle sert vurdu.
\nYeni rapor ayr\u0131ca, ekonominin y\u00fczde 3,4 b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc ge\u00e7en y\u0131la g\u00f6re bir yava\u015flamaya i\u015faret ediyor. IMF, baz\u0131 b\u00f6lgelerin ve \u00fclkelerin di\u011ferlerinden daha sert etkilenece\u011fini belirtti.
\n\u00d6rne\u011fin, \u0130ran’\u0131n g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc \u00fclke d\u00fczeyindeki en b\u00fcy\u00fck revizyonlardan birini g\u00f6rd\u00fc; 2026 i\u00e7in ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7ta \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahmini 7,2 puan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fclerek y\u00fczde 6,1’lik bir daralma tahminiyle sonu\u00e7land\u0131.
\nIMF ayr\u0131ca Suudi Arabistan i\u00e7in GSY\u0130H b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminlerini y\u00fczde 4,5’ten y\u00fczde 3,1’e d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc.
\nIMF, D\u00fcnya Ekonomik G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm raporunda, “Orta Do\u011fu’daki mevcut d\u00fc\u015fmanl\u0131klar acil politika ikilemleri yarat\u0131yor: enflasyonla m\u00fccadele ile b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi koruma ve artan ya\u015fam maliyetinden etkilenenleri destekleme ile mali tamponlar\u0131 yeniden in\u015fa etme aras\u0131nda bir denge kurma zorunlulu\u011fu var,” ifadelerini kulland\u0131.
\nBa\u015f Ekonomist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas bir a\u00e7\u0131klamada, “Bu durum \u00fclkeler aras\u0131nda olduk\u00e7a dengesiz olacak; \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma b\u00f6lgesindeki \u00fclkeleri, emtia ithal eden d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck gelirli \u00fclkeleri ve geli\u015fmekte olan piyasa ekonomilerini en sert \u015fekilde vuracak,” dedi.
\nOrta Do\u011fu ve Kuzey Afrika i\u00e7in 2026 b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahmini 2,8 puan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fclerek y\u00fczde 1,1’e \u00e7ekildi. IMF, Orta Do\u011fu ve Orta Asya i\u00e7in 2026 tahminini 2 puan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrerek y\u00fczde 1,9’a indirdi.
\nBu arada, Euro b\u00f6lgesinde b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin bu y\u0131l y\u00fczde 1,4’ten y\u00fczde 1,1’e yava\u015flamas\u0131 ve Ocak ay\u0131nda tahmin edilen y\u00fczde 1,3’\u00fcn alt\u0131nda kalmas\u0131 bekleniyor.
\nD\u00fc\u015f\u00fck tahminler, d\u00fcnya petrol ve s\u0131v\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f do\u011fal gaz tedarikinin yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 20’sinin ge\u00e7ti\u011fi H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131’ndaki trafi\u011fin yava\u015flamas\u0131yla birlikte petrol, gaz ve g\u00fcbre maliyetlerinin artmas\u0131yla a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131.
\nBoston College Strateji, \u0130novasyon ve Teknoloji Dekan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 Aleksandar Tomic, Al Jazeera’ya yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamada, “Bu, bildi\u011fimiz bir \u015feyin daha teyidi; Orta Do\u011fu’daki sava\u015f\u0131n k\u0131sa vadede b\u00fcy\u00fcme y\u00f6r\u00fcngesini de\u011fi\u015ftirdi\u011fi ve e\u011fer geni\u015flerse, muhtemelen uzun vadede de de\u011fi\u015ftirece\u011fi,” dedi.
\nEnflasyonist bask\u0131lara de\u011finen IMF, k\u00fcresel enflasyonun y\u00fczde 4,4’e y\u00fckselece\u011fini ve Ocak ay\u0131ndaki tahmininden 0,6 puan daha y\u00fcksek olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti.
\nGourinchas, fonun, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n geli\u015fmekte olan ekonomilerdeki enflasyon \u00fczerindeki etkisini izledi\u011fini, \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc bunun geli\u015fmekte olan piyasalarda daha s\u0131k\u0131 finansal ko\u015fullar i\u00e7in tipik bir aktar\u0131m kanal\u0131 oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi.
\nIMF, ABD’nin bu y\u0131lki b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc Ocak ay\u0131ndaki tahmininden sadece onda bir puan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrerek y\u00fczde 2,3’e indirdi.
\nUzmanlar, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131’ndaki devam eden gerilimlerin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylarda enflasyonist bask\u0131lar\u0131 k\u00f6t\u00fcle\u015ftirebilece\u011fini savundu.
\nAmerican University Uluslararas\u0131 \u0130\u015fletme Profes\u00f6r\u00fc Babak Hafezi, Al Jazeera’ya verdi\u011fi deme\u00e7te, “Petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda varil ba\u015f\u0131na her 10 dolarl\u0131k s\u00fcrekli art\u0131\u015f i\u00e7in GSY\u0130H b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinde yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 0,4’l\u00fck bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklemeliyiz. Yani, ortalama fiyat\u0131n \u00fczerinde 60 dolarl\u0131k s\u00fcrekli bir art\u0131\u015f, ABD’yi kesinlikle resesyon b\u00f6lgesine sokacakt\u0131r,” dedi.
\nG\u00fcnl\u00fck benzin fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 takip eden Amerikan Otomobil Birli\u011fi’ne g\u00f6re, ABD’de benzin fiyatlar\u0131 y\u00fckselmeye devam etti; bir galon (3,78 litre) ortalama fiyat\u0131, ABD ve \u0130srail’in \u0130ran’a sald\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 28 \u015eubat’taki 2,98 dolardan 4,11 dolara \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.
\nAncak petrol fiyatlar\u0131 \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131lar hafifleyebilir. \u0130ran’\u0131n sava\u015f\u0131 sona erdirmek i\u00e7in ABD ile g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelere yeniden ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131 umuduyla petrol fiyatlar\u0131 Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.
\nBrent ham petrol vadeli i\u015flemleri varil ba\u015f\u0131na 95,02 dolara gerileyerek g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde y\u00fczde 4,37 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ya\u015fad\u0131. Bat\u0131 Teksas ham petrol\u00fc ise 7,27 dolar veya y\u00fczde 7,32 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 91,84 dolara indi. Ancak bu fiyatlar, \u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131 \u00f6ncesi seviyelerin hala \u00e7ok \u00fczerinde.
\n#IMF #K\u00fcreselEkonomi #H\u00fcrm\u00fczBo\u011faz\u0131 #PetrolFiyatlar\u0131 #Enflasyon #EkonomikB\u00fcy\u00fcme #OrtaDo\u011fu #ABD\u0130ranGerilimi #EnerjiPiyasalar\u0131 #Geli\u015fmekteOlanPiyasalar<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Uluslararas\u0131 Para Fonu (IMF), ABD ile \u0130ran aras\u0131ndaki gerilimin k\u00fcresel enerji ve g\u0131da maliyetlerini art\u0131rmas\u0131 nedeniyle k\u00fcresel ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc. IMF Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamada, k\u00fcresel ekonominin bu y\u0131l y\u00fczde 3,1 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesini bekledi\u011fini belirtti. Bu oran, ABD ve \u0130srail’in 28 \u015eubat’ta \u0130ran’a kar\u015f\u0131 sava\u015f ba\u015flatmas\u0131ndan \u00f6nce yay\u0131nlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fczde 3,3’l\u00fck \u00f6nceki tahmine g\u00f6re bir yava\u015flamay\u0131 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1061,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[24],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1060","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-iran_haberler"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1060","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1060"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1060\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/1061"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1060"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1060"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1060"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}