Donald Trump’\u0131n NATO m\u00fcttefiklerine kar\u015f\u0131 duydu\u011fu k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcmseme, ABD ba\u015fkan\u0131 olmadan bile \u00f6nceye dayan\u0131yor. Savunma harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n nispeten d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olmas\u0131ndan, daha yak\u0131n zamanda ise NATO \u00fcyesi Danimarka’ya ait Gr\u00f6nland’\u0131 ele ge\u00e7irme tehditlerine kadar, Amerikan lideri ittifak\u0131 uzun s\u00fcredir diken \u00fcst\u00fcnde tutuyor.<\/p>\n
Ancak analistler, NATO m\u00fcttefiklerinin Trump’\u0131n \u0130ran’a kar\u015f\u0131 sava\u015f\u0131na kat\u0131lmama karar\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7atla\u011f\u0131 daha \u00f6nce g\u00f6r\u00fclmemi\u015f seviyelere ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtiyor. Bu hafta Trump, m\u00fcttefiklerin destek eksikli\u011fini ittifak \u00fczerinde “asla silinmeyecek bir leke” olarak nitelendirdi. Almanya \u015eans\u00f6lyesi Friedrich Merz ise saatler sonra daha a\u00e7\u0131k bir ifadeyle \u015funlar\u0131 s\u00f6yledi: “\u00c7at\u0131\u015fma bir transatlantik stres testine d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.”<\/p>\n
Bu kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 at\u0131\u015fmalar, uzmanlar\u0131n NATO’nun art\u0131k erteleyemeyece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi\u011fi Orta Do\u011fu krizinin ortaya \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131\u011f\u0131 merkezi bir soruyu vurguluyor: Transatlantik ittifak, \u00f6zellikle ABD \u00e7ekilirse ayakta kalabilir mi?<\/p>\n
Yeni Amerikan G\u00fcvenli\u011fi Merkezi’nde yard\u0131mc\u0131 k\u0131demli ara\u015ft\u0131rmac\u0131 ve Avrupa ve NATO’dan sorumlu eski Savunma Bakan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 Jim Townsend, “Ne bu ABD y\u00f6netimi s\u0131ras\u0131nda ne de bir sonraki d\u00f6nemde NATO’da her \u015fey eskisi gibi olmayacak,” dedi. “Hi\u00e7 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 kadar bir ayr\u0131l\u0131\u011fa yak\u0131n\u0131z.”<\/p>\n
Trump, ABD’yi ittifaktan keyfi olarak \u00e7ekemez.<\/p>\n
Bunu resmi olarak yapmak i\u00e7in ABD Senatosu’nda \u00fc\u00e7te iki \u00e7o\u011funlu\u011fa veya bir Kongre karar\u0131na ihtiyac\u0131 var; bu senaryolar\u0131n yak\u0131n zamanda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi pek olas\u0131 de\u011fil, zira NATO hala her iki b\u00fcy\u00fck Amerikan partisinde de bir\u00e7ok yasa koyucu aras\u0131nda geni\u015f destek g\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Ancak Trump’\u0131n yapabilece\u011fi ba\u015fka \u015feyler de var. ABD’nin m\u00fcttefikleri sald\u0131r\u0131ya u\u011frad\u0131\u011f\u0131nda onlara yard\u0131m etme y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc bulunmuyor. Anla\u015fman\u0131n 5. Maddesi \u00fcyelerin kolektif savunma y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc belirtse de, bu otomatik olarak askeri bir m\u00fcdahaleyi zorunlu k\u0131lm\u0131yor ve Washington’\u0131n ger\u00e7ekten yard\u0131ma gelip gelmeyece\u011fi konusunda m\u00fcttefikler aras\u0131nda \u015f\u00fcpheler var.<\/p>\n
ABD ayr\u0131ca Avrupa’ya yay\u0131lm\u0131\u015f yakla\u015f\u0131k 84.000 Amerikan askerini k\u0131tadan \u00e7ekebilir. Wall Street Journal \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc, Trump’\u0131n \u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131 s\u0131ras\u0131nda yard\u0131mc\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclen \u00fclkelerdeki baz\u0131 ABD \u00fcslerini ta\u015f\u0131may\u0131 ve daha destekleyici \u00fclkelere aktarmay\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc bildirdi. ABD askeri \u00fcslerini kapatabilir ve m\u00fcttefiklerle askeri koordinasyonu durdurabilir.<\/p>\n
ABD’nin Avrupa’ya y\u00f6nelik g\u00fcvenlik garantileri NATO’nun kurulu\u015fundan bu yana temelini olu\u015fturdu\u011fundan, b\u00f6yle bir ayr\u0131l\u0131k yeterince zarar verir.<\/p>\n
2007’den 2010’a kadar eski \u0130talya’n\u0131n NATO B\u00fcy\u00fckel\u00e7isi ve \u0130talya Cumhurba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131’n\u0131n eski k\u0131demli dan\u0131\u015fman\u0131 Stefano Stefanini, “NATO’yu baltalamak i\u00e7in ayr\u0131lmas\u0131na gerek yok; sadece ayr\u0131labilece\u011fini s\u00f6yleyerek bile, etkili bir ittifak olarak g\u00fcvenilirli\u011fini zaten a\u015f\u0131nd\u0131rd\u0131,” dedi.<\/p>\n
Yine de m\u00fcttefikler \u00e7aresiz de\u011fil. Rusya’n\u0131n Ukrayna’y\u0131 i\u015fgali, Avrupa savunma sanayilerinin zay\u0131flam\u0131\u015f durumunu ve ABD’ye olan derin ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 ortaya koydu. Bu durum, ABD-NATO ortakl\u0131\u011f\u0131ndaki say\u0131s\u0131z diplomatik krizle (Trump’\u0131n Gr\u00f6nland’\u0131 ele ge\u00e7irme tehdidi dahil) birle\u015fince, Avrupal\u0131 m\u00fcttefikleri savunma yeteneklerine daha fazla yat\u0131r\u0131m yapmaya itti. 2020 ile 2025 aras\u0131nda \u00fcye devletlerin savunma harcamalar\u0131 y\u00fczde 62’den fazla artt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Ancak Uluslararas\u0131 G\u00fcvenlik \u00c7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 Enstit\u00fcs\u00fc (IISS) raporuna g\u00f6re, Avrupa’n\u0131n ABD’ye a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131k g\u00f6sterdi\u011fi alanlar aras\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015fman topraklar\u0131na derinlemesine sald\u0131rma yetene\u011fi, istihbarat, g\u00f6zetim ve ke\u015fif, uydu istihbarat\u0131 gibi uzay tabanl\u0131 yetenekler, lojistik ve entegre hava ve f\u00fcze savunmas\u0131 yer al\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu zorluklar \u00f6nemli olmaya devam ediyor. Bunlar\u0131 gidermek on y\u0131l veya daha fazla s\u00fcrecek ve ABD’nin temel konvansiyonel askeri yeteneklerinin yerini almak yakla\u015f\u0131k 1 trilyon dolara mal olacak. IISS raporu, Avrupa’n\u0131n savunma sanayilerinin \u00fcretimi h\u0131zland\u0131rmakta zorland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve bir\u00e7ok Avrupa ordusunun i\u015fe al\u0131m ve elde tutma hedeflerine ula\u015famad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti.<\/p>\n
Yine de baz\u0131 uzmanlar, bir Avrupa NATO’sunun m\u00fcmk\u00fcn oldu\u011funa inan\u0131yor. \u0130sve\u00e7 Uluslararas\u0131 \u0130li\u015fkiler Enstit\u00fcs\u00fc’n\u00fcn Stockholm Do\u011fu Avrupa \u00c7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 Merkezi’nden analist Minna Alander, NATO’nun y\u0131llar i\u00e7inde Avrupa \u00fclkeleri aras\u0131nda askeri i\u015fbirli\u011fi i\u00e7in bir yap\u0131 haline geldi\u011fini s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Alander, “Bu nedenle NATO, \u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131ndan ve hatta ABD’nin \u00e7ekilmesinden bile sa\u011f \u00e7\u0131kabilir, \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc Avrupal\u0131 \u00fcyelerin onu s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmek i\u00e7in bir te\u015fviki var, radikal bir \u015fekilde farkl\u0131 bir bi\u00e7imde olsa bile,” dedi.<\/p>\n
Baz\u0131lar\u0131 i\u00e7in son tarih 2029. Almanya Genelkurmay Ba\u015fkan\u0131 General Carsten Breuer’in tahminlerine g\u00f6re, Rusya’n\u0131n kuvvetlerini NATO topraklar\u0131na sald\u0131rmak i\u00e7in yeterince yeniden yap\u0131land\u0131rabilece\u011fi zaman bu. Breuer, ge\u00e7en y\u0131l May\u0131s ay\u0131nda “Ancak bizi \u00e7ok daha erken test etmeye ba\u015flayabilirler,” demi\u015f ve Alman ordusuna o zamana kadar silah ve di\u011fer malzemelerle tam donan\u0131ml\u0131 olmas\u0131 talimat\u0131n\u0131 vermi\u015fti. Di\u011ferleri ise Moskova’n\u0131n bu tehdidi 2027 gibi erken bir tarihte olu\u015fturabilece\u011fini tahmin ediyor.<\/p>\n
Peki ya ABD – NATO olmadan daha m\u0131 iyi olurdu?<\/p>\n
Eski b\u00fcy\u00fckel\u00e7i Stefanini’ye g\u00f6re, NATO hakk\u0131ndaki tart\u0131\u015fma genellikle ittifak\u0131n varl\u0131k nedenini yaln\u0131zca Avrupa’y\u0131 Rusya’dan koruma i\u015flevi olarak, ABD’nin k\u0131taya bir l\u00fctfu olarak g\u00f6stermek i\u00e7in “\u00e7arp\u0131t\u0131l\u0131yor”.<\/p>\n
NATO, So\u011fuk Sava\u015f’\u0131n ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131nda Sovyetler Birli\u011fi’ne kar\u015f\u0131 do\u011fmu\u015f bir ittifaklar a\u011f\u0131yd\u0131. Onlarca y\u0131l boyunca ABD, m\u00fcmk\u00fcn oldu\u011funca \u00e7ok \u00fclkeyi ittifaka \u00e7ekmek i\u00e7in m\u00fccadele etti ve reddedenleri d\u00fc\u015fman\u0131n dostlar\u0131 olarak g\u00f6rd\u00fc.<\/p>\n
11 Eyl\u00fcl 2001’de ABD’ye yap\u0131lan sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan NATO, Washington’\u0131n arkas\u0131nda durmak i\u00e7in ilk ve tek kez 5. Madde’yi y\u00fcr\u00fcrl\u00fc\u011fe koydu ve Afganistan’da sava\u015fmak \u00fczere asker g\u00f6nderdi. Aralar\u0131nda Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k’tan yakla\u015f\u0131k 500, Fransa, Danimarka, \u0130talya ve di\u011fer \u00fclkelerden d\u00fczinelerce olmak \u00fczere binlerce asker orada hayat\u0131n\u0131 kaybetti.<\/p>\n
Ve \u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131nda, bir\u00e7ok \u00fclke \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmadan alenen uzak dursa bile, Avrupa \u00fcsleri ABD ordusu i\u00e7in faydal\u0131 birer haz\u0131rl\u0131k alan\u0131yd\u0131.<\/p>\n
Stefanini, “NATO, ABD \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131na hizmet etti ve Trump bu y\u00f6nleri rahat\u00e7a g\u00f6z ard\u0131 ediyor,” dedi. “Avrupa’n\u0131n savunmaya yat\u0131r\u0131m yapmayarak ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131k yaratarak kendi sorumlulu\u011fu var, ancak NATO’nun sadece Avrupa’n\u0131n stratejik \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131na hizmet etti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmek kesinlikle do\u011fru de\u011fil.”<\/p>\n
#NATO #DonaldTrump #ABD #AvrupaSavunmas\u0131 #Transatlantik\u0130ttifak #\u0130ranSava\u015f\u0131 #RusyaTehdidi #Askeri\u0130ttifak #Jeopolitik #G\u00fcvenlikPolitikas\u0131<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Donald Trump’\u0131n NATO m\u00fcttefiklerine kar\u015f\u0131 duydu\u011fu k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcmseme, ABD ba\u015fkan\u0131 olmadan bile \u00f6nceye dayan\u0131yor. Savunma harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n nispeten d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olmas\u0131ndan, daha yak\u0131n zamanda ise NATO \u00fcyesi Danimarka’ya ait Gr\u00f6nland’\u0131 ele ge\u00e7irme tehditlerine kadar, Amerikan lideri ittifak\u0131 uzun s\u00fcredir diken \u00fcst\u00fcnde tutuyor. Ancak analistler, NATO m\u00fcttefiklerinin Trump’\u0131n \u0130ran’a kar\u015f\u0131 sava\u015f\u0131na kat\u0131lmama karar\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7atla\u011f\u0131 daha \u00f6nce g\u00f6r\u00fclmemi\u015f seviyelere ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1241,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[24],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1240","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-iran_haberler"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1240","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1240"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1240\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/1241"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1240"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1240"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1240"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}