Son alt\u0131 haftan\u0131n \u00e7o\u011funda, size t\u0131kanm\u0131\u015f H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131’n\u0131n haritalar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdik. Yakla\u015f\u0131k 800 geminin K\u00f6rfez’de s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131na inan\u0131l\u0131yor; bunlar\u0131n \u00e7o\u011fu petrol ve gaz ta\u015f\u0131yor ve a\u00e7\u0131k denizlere \u00e7\u0131kmakta isteksiz ve yetersiz kalm\u0131\u015f durumda. Bu s\u00fcre zarf\u0131nda, d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck trafik s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan y\u00fckselen benzin ve dizel fiyatlar\u0131na, daha y\u00fcksek u\u00e7ak biletlerine ve d\u00fcnya genelinde artan konut kredisi faiz oranlar\u0131na do\u011frudan bir ba\u011flant\u0131 oldu. Bir\u00e7ok \u00fclke, b\u00f6lgedeki rafinerilerde \u00fcretilen di\u011fer petrokimyasal \u00fcr\u00fcnlerin \u00f6nemli tedarikleri i\u00e7in de bu sulara ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131d\u0131r. Bunlar aras\u0131nda jet yak\u0131t\u0131, dizel, g\u00fcbre bile\u015fenleri ve mikro\u00e7ip \u00fcretimi i\u00e7in gerekli olan helyum gibi end\u00fcstriyel \u00fcr\u00fcnler bulunmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n
\u0130yi haber \u015fu ki, bir gecelik ate\u015fkes \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n daha fazla t\u0131rmanmas\u0131n\u0131 durduruyor ve gerilimi azaltma ve bar\u0131\u015f i\u00e7in bir yol sunuyor. Bu nedenle piyasalar, petrol ve gaz piyasa fiyatlar\u0131nda %15’lik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler ve borsa piyasalar\u0131nda bir ralli ile olumlu tepki verdi. Ancak, bu hassas anda ekonomik etki konusunda dikkatli olmak i\u00e7in bir\u00e7ok neden var. \u0130ran, ABD ve \u0130srail’den m\u00fczakerelerin temeli hakk\u0131nda farkl\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamalar geliyor. Bunun testi, y\u00fcz y\u00fcze m\u00fczakerelerin ger\u00e7ekten ger\u00e7ekle\u015fip ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmeyece\u011fidir.<\/p>\n
Bir de Bo\u011faz’daki fiziksel durum var. ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump’\u0131n \u00f6nerdi\u011fi gibi trafik serbest\u00e7e akacak m\u0131? Yoksa \u0130ran D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakan\u0131’n\u0131n \u00f6nerdi\u011fi gibi “\u0130ran Silahl\u0131 Kuvvetleri ile koordinasyon ve teknik s\u0131n\u0131rlamalar dikkate al\u0131narak” m\u0131 akacak? Bu sadece petrol ve gaz i\u00e7in de\u011fil, ayn\u0131 zamanda jet yak\u0131t\u0131, k\u00fck\u00fcrt, \u00fcre ve dizel i\u00e7in de hayati \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131yor. Ate\u015fkes ne kadar uzun s\u00fcrerse, enflasyondaki herhangi bir y\u00fckseli\u015fin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylarda azalmas\u0131 o kadar olas\u0131d\u0131r. Bu ayn\u0131 zamanda herhangi bir bar\u0131\u015f hakk\u0131nda temel bir soruyu da g\u00fcndeme getiriyor. \u0130ran \u015fimdi K\u00f6rfez’de yeni bir ger\u00e7eklik yaratt\u0131. Bir donanmas\u0131 ve hava kuvveti olmasa bile, kilit deniz ge\u00e7i\u015f noktas\u0131n\u0131 kontrol edebilece\u011fini kan\u0131tlad\u0131. Hatta ge\u00e7i\u015f \u00fccreti toplamaya bile ba\u015flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu devam edecek mi? K\u00f6rfez \u00fclkeleri bunu kabul edecek mi?<\/p>\n
\u0130ran’\u0131n \u015fimdi Bo\u011faz’\u0131n kontrol\u00fcn\u00fc Umman ile ortakla\u015fa koordine edece\u011fi \u00f6nerisi ola\u011fan\u00fcst\u00fc. Sava\u015f, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131’n\u0131 d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en kazan\u00e7l\u0131 gi\u015fesine mi d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcrd\u00fc, bir\u00e7ok gemi milyon dolarl\u0131k ge\u00e7i\u015f \u00fccretleri mi \u00f6d\u00fcyor? A\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7as\u0131, bunlar\u0131n hi\u00e7biri sava\u015ftan \u00f6nce s\u00f6z konusu de\u011fildi. K\u00fcresel gaz \u00fcretimi, \u00e7o\u011funlukla Katar’daki altyap\u0131ya verilen do\u011frudan hasar nedeniyle muhtemelen birka\u00e7 y\u0131l boyunca zarar g\u00f6recek. \u00dcretimin yeniden ba\u015flamas\u0131 haftalar, sava\u015f \u00f6ncesi kapasiteye d\u00f6nmesi ise y\u0131llar alacak. Avrupa do\u011fal gaz stoklar\u0131n\u0131 doldurmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131rken, faturalardaki art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 kontrol alt\u0131na almak i\u00e7in K\u00f6rfez’den \u015fimdi yaz aylar\u0131na kadar s\u00fcrekli bir s\u0131v\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f do\u011fal gaz (LNG) tankeri ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 gerekecek. Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k’taki ev enerji faturalar\u0131nda Temmuz ay\u0131nda m\u00fctevaz\u0131 bir art\u0131\u015f neredeyse kesin olsa da, Ekim ay\u0131nda korkulan \u00f6nemli art\u0131\u015f \u015fimdi \u00f6nlenebilir. E\u011fer s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcl\u00fcrse, enflasyondaki daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bir y\u00fckseli\u015f de faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131n\u0131 engellemeye yard\u0131mc\u0131 olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Piyasalar, \u0130ngiltere dahil Avrupa h\u00fck\u00fcmetlerinin \u00f6dedi\u011fi efektif faiz oranlar\u0131nda \u00f6nemli bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Be\u015f y\u0131ll\u0131k devlet tahvili faizi, \u00e7eyrek puanl\u0131k bir faiz indirimi e\u015fde\u011feri kadar d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Bu ate\u015fkes, sabit konut kredisi faiz oranlar\u0131ndaki kayda de\u011fer art\u0131\u015f\u0131 durdurmaya yard\u0131mc\u0131 olacak. E\u011fer s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcl\u00fcrse, konut kredisi faiz oranlar\u0131 burada ve d\u00fcnya genelinde tekrar d\u00fc\u015fmeye ba\u015flayacak. Bu sava\u015f\u0131n ekonomisi her zaman merkezi bir fakt\u00f6r olmu\u015ftur, bir yan \u00fcr\u00fcn de\u011fil. \u0130ranl\u0131lar, Bo\u011faz’da bir t\u00fcr k\u00fcresel ekonomik kald\u0131ra\u00e7 olu\u015fturdu ve bunun kullan\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi. Temel diplomasi hakk\u0131nda hala \u00e7ok fazla belirsizlik var. Fiyatlar, faiz oranlar\u0131 ve hassas b\u00fcy\u00fcme \u00fczerindeki etkisi hakk\u0131nda daha da fazlas\u0131 var. D\u00fcn, olaylar petrol\u00fcn varil fiyat\u0131n\u0131 200 dolara ve di\u011fer t\u00fcm zincirleme etkileri bu hafta kadar erken bir zamanda \u00e7\u0131karabilirdi. \u015eimdi ise, varil ba\u015f\u0131na 60 ila 70 dolara geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f, kontrol alt\u0131na al\u0131nm\u0131\u015f enflasyon, daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck benzin fiyatlar\u0131 ve daha sakin faiz oranlar\u0131 i\u00e7in bir yol g\u00f6rmek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn. Bu nedenle, daha fazla t\u0131rmanman\u0131n olmamas\u0131, maliye bakanlar\u0131 \u00f6nemli IMF toplant\u0131lar\u0131 i\u00e7in Washington DC’ye u\u00e7arken k\u00fcresel ekonomi i\u00e7in kesin bir rahatlama. Bu \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n gaz arz\u0131 \u00fczerindeki ve d\u00fcnyan\u0131n kilit ekonomik arterlerinden birinin kontrol\u00fc \u00fczerindeki yaralar\u0131n\u0131n derinli\u011fi hala a\u00e7\u0131k bir soru olmaya devam ediyor.<\/p>\n
#H\u00fcrm\u00fczBo\u011faz\u0131 #\u0130ranSava\u015f\u0131 #EkonomikEtki #PetrolFiyatlar\u0131 #Do\u011falGaz #K\u00fcreselEkonomi #Ate\u015fkes #Enflasyon #FaizOranlar\u0131 #Jeopolitik<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Son alt\u0131 haftan\u0131n \u00e7o\u011funda, size t\u0131kanm\u0131\u015f H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131’n\u0131n haritalar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdik. Yakla\u015f\u0131k 800 geminin K\u00f6rfez’de s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131na inan\u0131l\u0131yor; bunlar\u0131n \u00e7o\u011fu petrol ve gaz ta\u015f\u0131yor ve a\u00e7\u0131k denizlere \u00e7\u0131kmakta isteksiz ve yetersiz kalm\u0131\u015f durumda. Bu s\u00fcre zarf\u0131nda, d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck trafik s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan y\u00fckselen benzin ve dizel fiyatlar\u0131na, daha y\u00fcksek u\u00e7ak biletlerine ve d\u00fcnya genelinde artan konut kredisi faiz […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1463,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[24],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1462","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-iran_haberler"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1462","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1462"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1462\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/1463"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1462"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1462"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1462"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}