\u0130ran ile \u0130srail aras\u0131nda ya\u015fanan 12 g\u00fcnl\u00fck sava\u015f\u0131n ard\u0131ndan geli\u015fen olaylar, gerilimin d\u00fc\u015fmesine de\u011fil, aksine \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n \u00e7ok daha geni\u015f bir \u00f6l\u00e7ekte yeniden tan\u0131mlanmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7t\u0131. Tahran ile Washington aras\u0131ndaki \u00e7alkant\u0131l\u0131 m\u00fczakereler devam ederken, iki taraf\u0131n beklentileri aras\u0131ndaki u\u00e7urum derinle\u015fti. Nihayetinde, bu u\u00e7urum Beyaz Saray’da iyimser bir de\u011ferlendirmeye dayal\u0131 bir karara yol a\u00e7t\u0131: S\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmaya girerek \u0130ran’\u0131 h\u0131zl\u0131 bir geri \u00e7ekilmeye zorlamak.<\/p>\n
Ancak sava\u015f alan\u0131 bu varsay\u0131m\u0131 h\u0131zla parampar\u00e7a etti. K\u0131sa, kontroll\u00fc ve y\u00f6netilebilir olmas\u0131 beklenen sava\u015f, 40 g\u00fcnl\u00fck bir y\u0131pratma sava\u015f\u0131na d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; bu sava\u015f sadece Amerika Birle\u015fik Devletleri’nin ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7taki hedeflerine ula\u015fmakta ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z olmakla kalmad\u0131, ayn\u0131 zamanda a\u011f\u0131r askeri, ekonomik ve siyasi maliyetler de getirdi.<\/p>\n
Anahtar soru \u015fuydu: Ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7taki de\u011ferlendirmeler ile ger\u00e7eklik aras\u0131ndaki bu derin kopuklu\u011fa ne sebep oldu? Bu soruyu yan\u0131tlamak i\u00e7in bu makale, sava\u015f \u00f6ncesi yanl\u0131\u015f hesaplamalara ve \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma s\u0131ras\u0131ndaki belirleyici de\u011fi\u015fkenlere odaklanmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n
1- 12 G\u00fcnl\u00fck Sava\u015f Deneyiminin Yanl\u0131\u015f Genellemesi
\nWashington, \u0130ran’\u0131n \u0130srail ile k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli sava\u015ftaki davran\u0131\u015f modelinin tekrarlanaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 varsayd\u0131, ancak bu sefer do\u011frudan ABD m\u00fcdahalesinin seviyesi \u00e7ok daha y\u00fcksekti. \u0130ran, buna g\u00f6re tepkisini ayarlad\u0131 ve en dikkat \u00e7ekici \u015fekilde H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 kart\u0131n\u0131 oynad\u0131. 12 \u015eubat’ta ABD durum odas\u0131nda yap\u0131lan bir toplant\u0131dan yay\u0131nlanan raporlara g\u00f6re, Genelkurmay Ba\u015fkan\u0131 General Keane, bo\u011faz\u0131n kapat\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n riskleri konusunda uyar\u0131da bulundu, ancak Trump generalin de\u011ferlendirmesini reddetti ve \u0130ran’\u0131n o noktaya gelmeden teslim olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 varsayd\u0131. Ancak sahada, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 hem ekonomik hem de askeri hesaplamalar\u0131 bozan belirleyici bir fakt\u00f6r haline geldi.<\/p>\n
2- \u0130ran’\u0131n Stratejik De\u011fi\u015fimini \u0130hmal Etmek
\nABD hala \u0130ran’\u0131n ana hedefinin \u0130srail olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 varsay\u0131yordu, ancak bu sefer Tahran b\u00f6lgedeki ABD \u00fcslerine odakland\u0131. BAE, Bahreyn, Kuveyt, Katar, Suudi Arabistan ve \u00dcrd\u00fcn do\u011frudan \u0130ran’\u0131n hedef listesine al\u0131nd\u0131.<\/p>\n
3- \u0130ran’\u0131n Askeri ve Savunma Yeteneklerini Yanl\u0131\u015f Hesaplamak
\n\u0130ran’\u0131n f\u00fcze teknolojisi, operasyonel hassasiyet ve hava savunma sistemlerindeki kademeli ilerlemeleri Washington’\u0131n hesaplamalar\u0131nda yeterince dikkate al\u0131nmad\u0131. ABD, \u0130ran’\u0131n hava savunmas\u0131n\u0131n sava\u015f u\u00e7aklar\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrebilece\u011fine veya \u0130ran f\u00fczelerinin K\u00f6rfez Arap devletlerinin \u00fcslerindeki geli\u015fmi\u015f radarlar\u0131 etkisiz hale getirebilece\u011fine inanm\u0131yordu. Sava\u015f alan\u0131 geli\u015fmeleri, \u0130ran’\u0131n sald\u0131r\u0131 ve savunma yeteneklerinde ger\u00e7ek bir s\u0131\u00e7rama oldu\u011funu ortaya koydu, ABD Hava Kuvvetleri’ne y\u00fcksek maliyetler getirdi ve hava \u00fcst\u00fcnl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc ciddi \u015fekilde zorlad\u0131.<\/p>\n
4- \u0130ran’\u0131n \u0130\u00e7 Durumu Hakk\u0131nda Yanl\u0131\u015f Tahminler
\nWashington’\u0131n temel varsay\u0131mlar\u0131ndan biri istikrars\u0131zl\u0131k veya i\u00e7 \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn patlak vermesiydi. Aral\u0131k ay\u0131ndaki istihbarat raporlar\u0131 onlar\u0131 yan\u0131ltm\u0131\u015f, Trump’\u0131 yayg\u0131n suikastlar ve halk protestolar\u0131n\u0131n aktivasyonu ile \u0130ran’\u0131n gerekli dirence sahip olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131na ikna etmi\u015fti. Ancak pratikte, bir sava\u015f durumu sosyal uyumu sa\u011flad\u0131 ve direni\u015f ruhunu g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi. Bunun nedeni, kriz zamanlar\u0131nda modern aktivizm ve kitlesel sokak varl\u0131\u011f\u0131 arac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131yla ulusal direni\u015fi \u015fekillendiren \u0130ran toplumundaki tarihi kimlik ve davran\u0131\u015f kal\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131n rol\u00fc olan \u201cmedeniyet de\u011fi\u015fkeni\u201dnde yatmaktad\u0131r. Washington, \u201culusal beka sava\u015f\u0131\u201dn\u0131 \u201csiyasi protestolar\u201d ile kar\u0131\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131.<\/p>\n
5- \u201cDireni\u015f Ekseni\u201dnin Uyumu Hafife Almak
\nABD, \u0130ran yanl\u0131s\u0131 gruplar\u0131n marjinal bir rol oynayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bekliyordu, ancak operasyonel koordinasyonlar\u0131 sava\u015f alan\u0131 karma\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde art\u0131rd\u0131. \u201cDireni\u015f ekseni\u201d ABD’ye kar\u015f\u0131 birle\u015fik bir cephe olu\u015ftururken, NATO Washington’a etkili destek sa\u011flayamad\u0131 ve Washington’\u0131n geleneksel ittifaklar\u0131nda maliyetli krizlerle kar\u015f\u0131la\u015f\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda \u00e7atlaklar ortaya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n
6- Artan \u0130\u00e7 ve Uluslararas\u0131 Bask\u0131
\nSava\u015f\u0131n devam\u0131 ABD i\u00e7inde muhalefetle kar\u015f\u0131land\u0131 \u2013 eski Trump destek\u00e7ileri ve Tucker Carlson gibi fig\u00fcrlerin medya ele\u015ftirilerinden, sivillere y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lara ili\u015fkin insan haklar\u0131 protestolar\u0131na, \u00f6zellikle de Minab okulu trajedisine kadar, bu durum operasyonun k\u00fcresel kamuoyundaki, hatta ABD i\u00e7indeki ahlaki me\u015fruiyetini h\u0131zla a\u015f\u0131nd\u0131rd\u0131.<\/p>\n
Bu arada, sava\u015f\u0131n b\u00f6lgeye yay\u0131lmas\u0131 petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n 120 dolar\u0131 a\u015fmas\u0131na neden oldu, bu da 200 dolarl\u0131k petrol hakk\u0131nda ciddi endi\u015felere ve analizlere yol a\u00e7arak ABD haneleri \u00fczerinde a\u011f\u0131r ekonomik bask\u0131 olu\u015fturdu.<\/p>\n
Uluslararas\u0131 sahnede ise, Bahreyn’in \u00f6nerdi\u011fi karar\u0131n Rusya ve \u00c7in taraf\u0131ndan veto edilmesi, baz\u0131 Bat\u0131l\u0131 m\u00fcttefiklerin ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z duru\u015flar\u0131yla birle\u015fince, sava\u015f\u0131n Washington i\u00e7in siyasi maliyetini dramatik bir \u015fekilde art\u0131rd\u0131.<\/p>\n
7 \u2013 ABD Askeri Karar Alma Yap\u0131lar\u0131ndaki \u00c7atlak Belirtileri
\nKomuta anla\u015fmazl\u0131klar\u0131 giderek \u015fiddetlendi. Sava\u015f\u0131n ortas\u0131nda genelkurmay ba\u015fkan\u0131 ve di\u011fer bir\u00e7ok komutan da dahil olmak \u00fczere \u00fcst d\u00fczey generallerin yayg\u0131n olarak g\u00f6revden al\u0131nmas\u0131 Pentagon’da b\u00fcy\u00fck bir deprem etkisi yaratt\u0131. Bu basit bir idari yeniden yap\u0131lanma de\u011fildi; modern askeri doktrindeki bir \u00e7\u0131kmaz\u0131 yans\u0131t\u0131yordu ve operasyonel s\u00fcreklili\u011fi olumsuz etkiledi.<\/p>\n
Bu hatalar\u0131n t\u00fcm\u00fc \u2013 \u0130ran’\u0131n davran\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 ve stratejik evrimini yanl\u0131\u015f okumaktan, e\u015f zamanl\u0131 i\u00e7 ve uluslararas\u0131 bask\u0131lar\u0131 g\u00f6z ard\u0131 etmeye kadar \u2013 ABD’yi, 40 g\u00fcn sonra m\u00fczakerelere ba\u015flamak i\u00e7in \u0130ran’\u0131n \u015fartlar\u0131n\u0131 kabul etmenin tek ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i se\u00e7enek oldu\u011fu bir konuma yerle\u015ftirdi.<\/p>\n
Sonu\u00e7 olarak, bu sava\u015f stratejik bir \u00e7\u0131kmaz\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131k bir \u00f6rne\u011fidir: \u0130yimser ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7 tahminleri ile sava\u015f alan\u0131 ger\u00e7ekleri aras\u0131ndaki u\u00e7urumun olaylar\u0131n seyrini temelden de\u011fi\u015ftirdi\u011fi bir durumdur.<\/p>\n
Bu, Washington’\u0131n stratejik \u00e7evrelerinde y\u0131llarca tart\u0131\u015f\u0131lacak ve tekrar g\u00f6zden ge\u00e7irilecek bir deneyim olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n
#\u0130ranSava\u015f\u0131 #ABD\u0130ranGerilimi #H\u00fcrm\u00fczBo\u011faz\u0131 #AskeriStrateji #OrtaDo\u011fu #Jeopolitik #Sava\u015fMaliyetleri #Direni\u015fEkseni #Uluslararas\u0131\u0130li\u015fkiler #Sava\u015fAnalizi<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
\u0130ran ile \u0130srail aras\u0131nda ya\u015fanan 12 g\u00fcnl\u00fck sava\u015f\u0131n ard\u0131ndan geli\u015fen olaylar, gerilimin d\u00fc\u015fmesine de\u011fil, aksine \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n \u00e7ok daha geni\u015f bir \u00f6l\u00e7ekte yeniden tan\u0131mlanmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7t\u0131. Tahran ile Washington aras\u0131ndaki \u00e7alkant\u0131l\u0131 m\u00fczakereler devam ederken, iki taraf\u0131n beklentileri aras\u0131ndaki u\u00e7urum derinle\u015fti. Nihayetinde, bu u\u00e7urum Beyaz Saray’da iyimser bir de\u011ferlendirmeye dayal\u0131 bir karara yol a\u00e7t\u0131: S\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmaya […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2438,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[24],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2437","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-iran_haberler"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2437","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=2437"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2437\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/2438"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=2437"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=2437"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=2437"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}