Bu hafta sonu \u0130slamabad’da ABD Ba\u015fkan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 JD Vance ile \u0130ran Meclis Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Muhammed Bak\u0131r Galibaf’\u0131n bir araya gelmesi ve muhtemelen bir foto\u011fraf \u00e7ektirmesi, \u015f\u00fcphesiz tarihi bir an<\/b> olacak. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fme, 1979 \u0130slam Devrimi’nin iki \u00fclke aras\u0131ndaki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc stratejik ba\u011f\u0131 koparmas\u0131ndan ve ili\u015fkileri g\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcze kadar g\u00f6lgeleyen derin bir g\u00fcvensizlik yaratmas\u0131ndan bu yana, \u0130ran \u0130slam Cumhuriyeti ile Amerika Birle\u015fik Devletleri aras\u0131ndaki en \u00fcst d\u00fczey y\u00fcz y\u00fcze g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri temsil edecek.<\/p>\nDerin G\u00fcvensizli\u011fin G\u00f6lgesinde<\/h3>\n
\u0130ki liderin g\u00fcl\u00fcmsememesi, hatta el s\u0131k\u0131\u015fmamas\u0131 bile olas\u0131. Bu durum, sorunlu ili\u015fkileri daha kolay veya daha az d\u00fc\u015fmanca hale getirmeyecek. Ancak bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fme, her iki taraf\u0131n da d\u00fcnya genelinde \u015fok dalgalar\u0131 yaratan bir sava\u015f\u0131 sona erdirmeye, daha riskli bir t\u0131rman\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00f6nlemeye ve diplomasiye y\u00f6nelerek bir anla\u015fma yapmaya istekli oldu\u011funa dair bir sinyal<\/b> g\u00f6nderecektir. ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump’\u0131n iki haftal\u0131k k\u0131r\u0131lgan ate\u015fkes s\u00fcresince bir “bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131”na dair iyimser tahmini i\u00e7in s\u0131f\u0131r \u015fans var; zira ate\u015fkesin \u015fartlar\u0131 daha bu hafta ba\u015f\u0131nda a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131\u011f\u0131 andan itibaren tart\u0131\u015fmal\u0131 hale geldi ve ihlal edildi.<\/p>\n\u00d6nceki \u00c7abalar ve Zorluklar<\/h3>\n
\u0130ranl\u0131lar, \u0130srail’in L\u00fcbnan’da ate\u015fkes olmayaca\u011f\u0131 konusunda \u0131srar etmesine ra\u011fmen, son ana kadar gelip gelmeyecekleri konusunda herkesi merak i\u00e7inde b\u0131rakt\u0131. Ancak ciddi ve s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler ba\u015flarsa, bu ayn\u0131 zamanda Trump’\u0131n ilk d\u00f6neminde, 2018’de \u00f6nceki d\u00f6n\u00fcm noktas\u0131 niteli\u011findeki n\u00fckleer anla\u015fmadan \u00e7ekilmesinden bu yana yap\u0131lan en \u00f6nemli diplomatik hamle olacak. Trump, Obama y\u00f6netiminin d\u0131\u015f politika ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclen bu anla\u015fmay\u0131 “tarihin en k\u00f6t\u00fc anla\u015fmas\u0131” olarak nitelendirmi\u015fti. Uluslararas\u0131 Kriz Grubu’ndan Ali Vaez, “Daha \u00fcst d\u00fczey yetkililerin g\u00f6revlendirilmesi ve t\u00fcm taraflar i\u00e7in ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131n y\u00fcksek riskleri, daha \u00f6nce olmayan olas\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131 a\u00e7abilir,” de\u011ferlendirmesinde bulunuyor. Ancak Vaez, bu seferin “katlanarak daha zor” oldu\u011funu da belirtiyor.<\/p>\n
\u0130ki taraf aras\u0131ndaki u\u00e7urumlar \u00e7ok geni\u015f ve g\u00fcvensizlik \u00e7ok derin<\/b>. \u00d6zellikle Tahran i\u00e7in bu durum, Haziran 2025 ve bu y\u0131l \u015eubat ay\u0131ndaki son iki m\u00fczakere serisinin, bir ABD-\u0130srail sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131n ilk salvolar\u0131yla aniden kesintiye u\u011framas\u0131ndan sonra daha da belirginle\u015fti. M\u00fczakere tarzlar\u0131 da kutuplar kadar farkl\u0131. Trump, \u00f6zel temsilcisi Steve Witkoff ve damad\u0131 Jared Kushner’\u0131 en iyi anla\u015fma yap\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Ancak \u0130ran, bu el\u00e7ileri \u0130srail’e \u00e7ok yak\u0131n buldu\u011fu i\u00e7in, kat\u0131l\u0131m d\u00fczeyinin \u00f6zellikle Vance’e y\u00fckseltilmesi konusunda \u0131srar etti. Vance, ABD y\u00f6netiminde resmi bir konuma sahip olmas\u0131 ve Trump ekibinde bu askeri kampanyaya en g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc \u015f\u00fcpheyle yakla\u015fan ki\u015fi olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclmesi nedeniyle tercih edildi. \u0130ran’\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 da s\u0131n\u0131rlamalar getirdi; \u00f6zellikle m\u00fczakerelerin ana hatlar\u0131yla g\u00fcvenilir arabulucular\u0131 Umman arac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131yla dolayl\u0131 olarak y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fclmesi konusundaki \u0131srar\u0131 dikkat \u00e7ekiyor.<\/p>\nDe\u011fi\u015fen G\u00fcvenlik Denklemi<\/h3>\n
\u015eubat ay\u0131nda Cenevre’de, y\u00fcksek duvarlar\u0131n arkas\u0131nda ve d\u00fcnya kameralar\u0131ndan uzakta, dolayl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin ortas\u0131nda baz\u0131 do\u011frudan konu\u015fmalar da ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Ancak bu yolu derinden g\u00fcvensiz bulan \u0130ranl\u0131 sertlik yanl\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n, d\u00fc\u015fmanca veya a\u015fa\u011f\u0131lay\u0131c\u0131 al\u0131\u015fveri\u015f riskinden ka\u00e7\u0131nmak isteyen m\u00fczakerecilerin ellerini ba\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00f6yleniyor. Bu d\u00fc\u015fmanl\u0131klar, t\u00fcm taraflar i\u00e7in g\u00fcvenlik denklemini de\u011fi\u015ftirdi<\/b>. Bu \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmadan \u00f6nce bile, \u0130ran’\u0131n g\u00fcvenlik kurumlar\u0131ndaki sertlik yanl\u0131s\u0131 sesler n\u00fckleer bomba geli\u015ftirilmesi gerekti\u011fini savunuyordu. \u0130ran \u015fimdi balistik f\u00fcze cephaneli\u011fini kendini savunma i\u00e7in korumakta ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00fczerinde etkili olmaya devam etmekte \u0131srar edecek. Bu durum Tahran’a \u00f6nemli bir kald\u0131ra\u00e7 ve umutsuzca ihtiya\u00e7 duyulan bir ekonomik cankurtaran halat\u0131 sa\u011fl\u0131yor. Ancak 2015 n\u00fckleer anla\u015fmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kan, ancak daha sonra kom\u015fular\u0131yla temkinli bir yak\u0131nla\u015fmaya ula\u015fan \u00e7o\u011fu K\u00f6rfez \u00fclkesi, \u00fclkelerine \u00e7arpan f\u00fczelerin m\u00fczakere masas\u0131nda olmas\u0131n\u0131 talep ediyor.<\/p>\nTarihin Yank\u0131lar\u0131 ve Mevcut Durum<\/h3>\n
On \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131l \u00f6nce, \u0130ran’\u0131n merhum Y\u00fcce Lideri Ayetullah Ali Hamaney, m\u00fczakerecilerinin ABD ile n\u00fckleer g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri yo\u011funla\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131na isteksizce izin vermi\u015fti. Buna “kahramanca esneklik” denmi\u015fti. Tahran’\u0131n \u00fcst d\u00fczey din adam\u0131, “B\u00fcy\u00fck \u015eeytan” olarak hor g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc \u00fclkeye g\u00fcvenmiyordu. Ancak \u0130ran’\u0131n yeni se\u00e7ilen reformist ba\u015fkan\u0131 Hasan Ruhani, \u00fclkenin i\u00e7inde bulundu\u011fu k\u00f6t\u00fc ekonomik durumun kendilerine fel\u00e7 edici uluslararas\u0131 yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 kald\u0131rmak i\u00e7in her \u015feyi yapmaktan ba\u015fka se\u00e7enek b\u0131rakmad\u0131\u011f\u0131na ikna etmi\u015fti. \u015eimdi, bu sava\u015f\u0131n ilk saatlerinde babas\u0131n\u0131n suikast\u0131ndan sonra iktidara y\u00fckselen o\u011flu M\u00fccteba Hamaney, m\u00fczakerecilerinin \u0130slamabad’da ABD el\u00e7ileriyle g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmesine onay verdi. Ancak o sald\u0131r\u0131da yaraland\u0131 ve kat\u0131l\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n ve yetkisinin kapsam\u0131 belirsizli\u011fini koruyor. Sertlik yanl\u0131lar\u0131, en ba\u015fta g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131, \u015fimdi kararlar\u0131 veriyor. \u0130ran ekonomisi \u00e7ok daha derin bir krizin i\u00e7inde<\/b> ve Ocak ay\u0131ndaki \u00fclke \u00e7ap\u0131ndaki protestolar\u0131n binlerce kay\u0131pla bast\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan evde daha \u00f6nemli bir muhalefetle kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya.<\/p>\n
Trump, alt\u0131 haftal\u0131k bu sava\u015f\u0131n “rejim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi” sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve \u0130ran’\u0131n yeni liderlerini “daha az radikal, \u00e7ok daha makul” olarak tan\u0131ml\u0131yor. On \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131l \u00f6nce, g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler ba\u015flarken, iki taraf\u0131n “\u00e7ok uzak” oldu\u011funu belirten a\u00e7\u0131klamalar yap\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. \u0130ran, ABD’nin uranyum zenginle\u015ftirme “hakk\u0131n\u0131” tan\u0131mas\u0131n\u0131 talep etmi\u015fti; ABD ise \u0130ran \u0130slam Cumhuriyeti’nin n\u00fckleer silah aray\u0131\u015f\u0131nda oldu\u011fu \u015f\u00fcphesini dile getirerek bunu reddetmi\u015fti. \u015eimdilik ABD, bu hakk\u0131n tan\u0131naca\u011f\u0131n\u0131, ancak \u0130ran’da zenginle\u015ftirme yap\u0131lmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece ge\u00e7erli olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Tarih kendini tekrar etmeyebilir, ama kesinlikle kafiyeli.<\/p>\n
#VanceGhalibaf #\u0130ranABD\u0130li\u015fkileri #Diplomasi #N\u00fckleerAnla\u015fma #Ortado\u011fu #Bar\u0131\u015fG\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri #GerilimAzaltma #\u0130slamabad #Jeopolitik #Uluslararas\u0131\u0130li\u015fkiler<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Bu hafta sonu \u0130slamabad’da ABD Ba\u015fkan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 JD Vance ile \u0130ran Meclis Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Muhammed Bak\u0131r Galibaf’\u0131n bir araya gelmesi ve muhtemelen bir foto\u011fraf \u00e7ektirmesi, \u015f\u00fcphesiz tarihi bir an olacak. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fme, 1979 \u0130slam Devrimi’nin iki \u00fclke aras\u0131ndaki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc stratejik ba\u011f\u0131 koparmas\u0131ndan ve ili\u015fkileri g\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcze kadar g\u00f6lgeleyen derin bir g\u00fcvensizlik yaratmas\u0131ndan bu yana, \u0130ran \u0130slam Cumhuriyeti […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2490,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[24],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2489","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-iran_haberler"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2489","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=2489"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2489\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/2490"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=2489"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=2489"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=2489"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}