Bu hafta sonu \u0130slamabad’da ABD Ba\u015fkan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 JD Vance ile \u0130ran Meclis Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Muhammed Bak\u0131r Galibaf’\u0131n bir araya gelerek foto\u011fraf \u00e7ektirmesi, \u015f\u00fcphesiz tarihe ge\u00e7ecek bir an<\/b> olacak. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fme, 1979 \u0130slam Devrimi<\/b>‘nin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc stratejik ba\u011flar\u0131 koparmas\u0131ndan ve ili\u015fkileri bug\u00fcne kadar g\u00f6lgeleyen derin bir g\u00fcvensizlik yaratmas\u0131ndan bu yana, \u0130ran \u0130slam Cumhuriyeti ile Amerika Birle\u015fik Devletleri aras\u0131ndaki en \u00fcst d\u00fczey y\u00fcz y\u00fcze g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelere<\/b> i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
\u0130ki liderin g\u00fcl\u00fcmsemeyebilece\u011fi, hatta el s\u0131k\u0131\u015fmayabilece\u011fi belirtiliyor. Bu durum, sorunlu ili\u015fkileri daha kolay veya daha az d\u00fc\u015fmanca hale getirmeyecek. Ancak, her iki taraf\u0131n da d\u00fcnya \u00e7ap\u0131nda \u015fok dalgalar\u0131 yaratan bir sava\u015f\u0131 sona erdirmeye<\/b>, daha riskli bir t\u0131rman\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00f6nlemeye ve diplomasi yoluyla bir anla\u015fmaya<\/b> varmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair bir sinyal g\u00f6nderecektir.<\/p>\nBar\u0131\u015f Anla\u015fmas\u0131 \u0130htimali ve Mevcut Zorluklar<\/h3>\n
ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump’\u0131n bu iki haftal\u0131k k\u0131r\u0131lgan ate\u015fkes<\/b> s\u00fcresince bir ‘bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131’na dair iyimser tahmini i\u00e7in s\u0131f\u0131r \u015fans oldu\u011fu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcl\u00fcyor; zira ate\u015fkesin \u015fartlar\u0131, bu hafta ba\u015f\u0131nda duyuruldu\u011fu andan itibaren tart\u0131\u015fmal\u0131 hale geldi ve ihlal edildi. \u0130srail’in L\u00fcbnan’da ate\u015fkes olmayaca\u011f\u0131 konusunda \u0131srar etmesine ra\u011fmen, \u0130ranl\u0131lar son ana kadar g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelere kat\u0131l\u0131p kat\u0131lmayacaklar\u0131 konusunda herkesi merakta b\u0131rakt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Ancak ciddi ve s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler ba\u015flarsa, bu ayn\u0131 zamanda Trump’\u0131n ilk d\u00f6neminde 2018’de \u00f6nceki d\u00f6n\u00fcm noktas\u0131 n\u00fckleer anla\u015fmas\u0131ndan<\/b> \u00e7ekilmesinden bu yana yap\u0131lan en \u00f6nemli diplomatik hamle olacak. Trump, Obama y\u00f6netiminin d\u0131\u015f politika ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclen bu anla\u015fmay\u0131 ‘tarihin en k\u00f6t\u00fc anla\u015fmas\u0131’ olarak nitelendirmi\u015fti.<\/p>\nGe\u00e7mi\u015fteki G\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler ve Mevcut Engeller<\/h3>\n
Yakla\u015f\u0131k 18 ay s\u00fcren, at\u0131l\u0131mlar ve aksakl\u0131klarla dolu o d\u00f6nemdeki g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler, d\u00f6nemin ABD D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakan\u0131 John Kerry ile \u0130ran’\u0131n d\u00f6nemin D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakan\u0131 Muhammed Cevad Zarif aras\u0131ndaki son \u00fcst d\u00fczey toplant\u0131lard\u0131. ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Joe Biden d\u00f6neminde de dahil olmak \u00fczere o zamandan bu yana yap\u0131lan \u00e7abalar ise pek ilerleme kaydetmedi.<\/p>\n
Uluslararas\u0131 Kriz Grubu’ndan Ali Vaez, ‘Daha \u00fcst d\u00fczey yetkililerin g\u00f6nderilmesi ve t\u00fcm taraflar i\u00e7in ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131n y\u00fcksek riskleri, daha \u00f6nce olmayan olas\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131 a\u00e7abilir’ de\u011ferlendirmesinde bulunuyor. Ancak Vaez, bu sefer durumun ‘katlanarak daha zor<\/b>‘ oldu\u011funu da belirtiyor. \u0130ki taraf aras\u0131ndaki u\u00e7urumlar \u00e7ok geni\u015f ve g\u00fcvensizlik \u00e7ok derin. \u00d6zellikle Tahran i\u00e7in, Haziran 2025 ve bu y\u0131l \u015eubat ay\u0131ndaki son iki m\u00fczakere serisinin bir ABD-\u0130srail sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f salvolar\u0131yla aniden kesintiye u\u011framas\u0131 nedeniyle bu g\u00fcvensizlik daha da artt\u0131.<\/p>\nM\u00fczakere Tarzlar\u0131ndaki Farkl\u0131l\u0131klar<\/h3>\n
Taraflar\u0131n m\u00fczakere tarzlar\u0131<\/b> da kutuplar kadar farkl\u0131. Trump, \u00f6zel temsilcisi eski emlak geli\u015ftiricisi Steve Witkoff ve ilk d\u00f6neminde \u0130srail ile baz\u0131 Arap devletleri aras\u0131ndaki ili\u015fkileri normalle\u015ftiren \u0130brahim Anla\u015fmalar\u0131<\/b>‘nda kilit rol oynayan damad\u0131 Jared Kushner’\u0131n en iyi anla\u015fmac\u0131lar oldu\u011funu iddia ediyor. Ancak \u0130ran, bu el\u00e7ileri \u0130srail’e \u00e7ok yak\u0131n g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc i\u00e7in, kat\u0131l\u0131m seviyesinin \u00f6zellikle Vance’e y\u00fckseltilmesi konusunda \u0131srar etti. Vance, ABD y\u00f6netimi i\u00e7inde resmi bir pozisyona sahip olmas\u0131n\u0131n yan\u0131 s\u0131ra, Trump’\u0131n ekibindeki bu askeri kampanyaya en g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc \u015f\u00fcpheyle yakla\u015fan ki\u015fi olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran’\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 da s\u0131n\u0131rlamalar getirdi, \u00f6zellikle m\u00fczakerelerin a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olarak g\u00fcvenilir arabulucular\u0131 Umman arac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131yla dolayl\u0131 yollardan y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fclmesi<\/b> konusundaki \u0131srar\u0131 dikkat \u00e7ekiyor. \u015eubat ay\u0131nda Cenevre’de, y\u00fcksek duvarlar\u0131n arkas\u0131nda ve d\u00fcnya kameralar\u0131ndan uzakta, dolayl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin ortas\u0131nda baz\u0131 do\u011frudan konu\u015fmalar da ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Ancak bu yolu derinlemesine g\u00fcvensizlikle kar\u015f\u0131layan \u0130ranl\u0131 sertlik yanl\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n, d\u00fc\u015fmanca veya a\u015fa\u011f\u0131lay\u0131c\u0131 al\u0131\u015fveri\u015f riskinden ka\u00e7\u0131nmak isteyen m\u00fczakerecilerin ellerini ba\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00f6yleniyor.<\/p>\n
Witkoff’un imzas\u0131 niteli\u011findeki tarz\u0131 genellikle tek ba\u015f\u0131na gelmekti. Bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te yer alan diplomatik kaynaklar, s\u0131k s\u0131k not bile almad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtiyor; bu da \u0130ran’\u0131n \u015f\u00fcphelerini art\u0131rd\u0131 ve g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin genellikle k\u0131s\u0131r d\u00f6ng\u00fcye girmesine neden oldu. Daha sonra Kushner ekibine dahil edildi. On y\u0131l \u00f6nceki m\u00fczakerelerle tezat daha keskin olamazd\u0131 \u2013 ABD ve \u0130ran delegasyonlar\u0131, deneyimli diplomatlar ve \u00f6nde gelen fizik\u00e7ilerden olu\u015fan g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc heyetlere sahipti. Ayr\u0131ca \u00fcst d\u00fczey Avrupal\u0131 diplomatlar ve BM G\u00fcvenlik Konseyi’nin di\u011fer d\u00f6rt daimi \u00fcyesinin (\u0130ngiltere, Fransa, \u00c7in ve Rusya) d\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri bakanlar\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan da destekleniyorlard\u0131.<\/p>\n
Bu y\u0131l \u015eubat ay\u0131ndaki son turlarda, Uluslararas\u0131 Atom Enerjisi Ajans\u0131 (UAEA) ba\u015fkan\u0131 Rafael Grossi ve di\u011fer \u00fclkelerden deneyimli arabulucular\u0131n teknik uzmanl\u0131\u011f\u0131yla iki delegasyonun ilerleme kaydetti\u011fi belirtiliyor. En az\u0131ndan n\u00fckleer dosya \u00fczerinde, \u0130ran’\u0131n y\u00fcksek oranda zenginle\u015ftirilmi\u015f uranyumunun seyreltilmesi de dahil olmak \u00fczere yeni tavizler sundu\u011fu ve baz\u0131 ama t\u00fcm bo\u015fluklar\u0131 kapatabildikleri s\u00f6yleniyordu. Ard\u0131ndan sava\u015f yeniden patlak verdi.<\/p>\n
\u015eimdi bu d\u00fc\u015fmanl\u0131klar, t\u00fcm taraflar i\u00e7in g\u00fcvenlik hesaplar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirdi. Bu \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmadan \u00f6nce bile, \u0130ran’\u0131n g\u00fcvenlik kurumlar\u0131ndaki sertlik yanl\u0131s\u0131 sesler n\u00fckleer bomba geli\u015ftirilmesi gerekti\u011fini savunuyordu. \u0130ran \u015fimdi balistik f\u00fcze cephaneli\u011fini<\/b> kendini savunma i\u00e7in saklamakta ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131<\/b> \u00fczerinde etkisini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmekte \u0131srar edecek. Bu durum Tahran’a \u00f6nemli bir kald\u0131ra\u00e7 ve umutsuzca ihtiya\u00e7 duyulan bir ekonomik cankurtaran halat\u0131 sa\u011fl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Ancak 2015 n\u00fckleer anla\u015fmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kan, ancak daha sonra kom\u015fular\u0131yla temkinli bir yak\u0131nla\u015fma sa\u011flayan \u00e7o\u011fu K\u00f6rfez \u00fclkesi, \u00fclkelerine isabet eden f\u00fczelerin m\u00fczakere masas\u0131nda olmas\u0131n\u0131 talep ediyor. \u0130srail ve \u00f6zellikle Ba\u015fbakan\u0131 Binyamin Netanyahu, \u0130ran’\u0131n tehditlerine ili\u015fkin derin endi\u015felerin giderildi\u011finden emin olmak i\u00e7in Beyaz Saray’\u0131 arayacak veya oraya ko\u015facak.<\/p>\n
On \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131l \u00f6nce, \u0130ran’\u0131n merhum Y\u00fcksek Lideri Ayetullah Ali Hamaney, m\u00fczakerecilerinin ABD ile n\u00fckleer g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri yo\u011funla\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131na isteksizce izin vermi\u015fti. Bu duruma ‘kahramanca esneklik<\/b>‘ denmi\u015fti. Tahran’\u0131n en \u00fcst d\u00fczey din adam\u0131, ‘B\u00fcy\u00fck \u015eeytan’ olarak hor g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc \u00fclkeye g\u00fcvenmiyordu. Ancak \u0130ran’\u0131n yeni se\u00e7ilen reformist ba\u015fkan\u0131 Hasan Ruhani, \u00fclkenin i\u00e7inde bulundu\u011fu k\u00f6t\u00fc ekonomik durumun<\/b>, fel\u00e7 edici uluslararas\u0131 yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 kald\u0131rmak i\u00e7in ellerinden geleni yapmaktan ba\u015fka se\u00e7enek b\u0131rakmad\u0131\u011f\u0131na onu ikna etmi\u015fti.<\/p>\n
\u015eimdi, bu sava\u015f\u0131n ilk saatlerinde babas\u0131n\u0131n suikast\u0131ndan sonra iktidara y\u00fckselen o\u011flu M\u00fccteba Hamaney, m\u00fczakerecilerinin \u0130slamabad’da ABD el\u00e7ileriyle g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmesine onay verdi. Ancak o sald\u0131r\u0131da yaraland\u0131 ve kat\u0131l\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n ve yetkisinin kapsam\u0131 hen\u00fcz net de\u011fil. En ba\u015fta g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131<\/b> olmak \u00fczere sertlik yanl\u0131lar\u0131 art\u0131k kararlar\u0131 veriyor. \u0130ran ekonomisi \u00e7ok daha derin bir krizin<\/b> i\u00e7inde. Ve Ocak ay\u0131ndaki \u00fclke \u00e7ap\u0131ndaki protestolar\u0131n binlerce zayiatla bast\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan evde daha \u00f6nemli muhalefetle kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya.<\/p>\n
Bu a\u011f\u0131r sava\u015fla sars\u0131lan bir ulus, ekonomik ve sosyal de\u011fi\u015fim, hatta baz\u0131lar\u0131 i\u00e7in temel de\u011fi\u015fim umuduna tutunmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. Trump, bu alt\u0131 haftal\u0131k sava\u015f\u0131n ‘rejim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi<\/b>‘ sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve \u0130ran’\u0131n yeni liderlerini ‘daha az radikal, \u00e7ok daha makul’ olarak tan\u0131ml\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Ger\u00e7e\u011fin an\u0131 t\u00fcm taraflar i\u00e7in yakla\u015f\u0131yor olabilir. Ve ba\u015fka bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcc\u00fc nokta daha var. On \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131l \u00f6nce, g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler ba\u015flarken, taraflar\u0131n ‘\u00e7ok uzak’ oldu\u011fu belirtiliyordu. \u0130ran, ABD’nin uranyum zenginle\u015ftirme<\/b> ‘hakk\u0131n\u0131’ tan\u0131mas\u0131n\u0131 talep etmi\u015fti \u2013 ki ABD bunu reddederek, \u0130slam Cumhuriyeti’nin n\u00fckleer silah aray\u0131\u015f\u0131nda oldu\u011fu \u015f\u00fcphesini dile getirmi\u015fti. \u015eimdilik ABD, bu hakk\u0131n tan\u0131naca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor \u2013 \u0130ran’da zenginle\u015ftirme olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece.<\/p>\n
Tarih tekerr\u00fcr etmeyebilir ama kafiyeli olabilir.<\/p>\n
#VanceGhalibaf #\u0130ranABDG\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri #Diplomasi #N\u00fckleerAnla\u015fma #\u0130slamabadZirvesi #Ortado\u011fuBar\u0131\u015f\u0131 #G\u00fcvenlikM\u00fczakereleri #\u0130ranSiyaseti #K\u00fcreselDiplomasi #Ate\u015fkesG\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Bu hafta sonu \u0130slamabad’da ABD Ba\u015fkan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 JD Vance ile \u0130ran Meclis Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Muhammed Bak\u0131r Galibaf’\u0131n bir araya gelerek foto\u011fraf \u00e7ektirmesi, \u015f\u00fcphesiz tarihe ge\u00e7ecek bir an olacak. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fme, 1979 \u0130slam Devrimi‘nin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc stratejik ba\u011flar\u0131 koparmas\u0131ndan ve ili\u015fkileri bug\u00fcne kadar g\u00f6lgeleyen derin bir g\u00fcvensizlik yaratmas\u0131ndan bu yana, \u0130ran \u0130slam Cumhuriyeti ile Amerika Birle\u015fik Devletleri aras\u0131ndaki […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2492,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[24],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2491","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-iran_haberler"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2491","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=2491"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2491\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/2492"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=2491"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=2491"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=2491"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}