Uluslararas\u0131 Para Fonu (IMF), ABD-\u0130srail’in \u0130ran’\u0131 da etkileyen \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n\u0131n ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131’n\u0131n kapanmas\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fcnya ekonomisi \u00fczerindeki etkisini gerek\u00e7e g\u00f6stererek, 2026 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminini %3,3’ten %3,1’e d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc. Sava\u015f, K\u00f6rfez genelinde enerji altyap\u0131s\u0131na zarar verirken, \u0130ran’\u0131n bo\u011faz\u0131 kapatmas\u0131 ve ard\u0131ndan ABD donanmas\u0131n\u0131n \u0130ran limanlar\u0131n\u0131 abluka alt\u0131na almas\u0131 nedeniyle petrol, gaz, kimyasallar ve g\u00fcbre gibi kritik ihracat b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde engellenmi\u015f durumda. IMF, uzun s\u00fcreli bir sava\u015f\u0131n en k\u00f6t\u00fc senaryosunda, 2026’da k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin %2,5’e d\u00fc\u015febilece\u011fini ve d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck gelirli ve geli\u015fmekte olan ekonomilerin artan emtia ve enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndan en \u00e7ok etkilenece\u011fini belirtti. K\u00fcresel nakliye ve lojistik sekt\u00f6r\u00fc de ayr\u0131 bir krizle kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya. Ancak her ekonomik krizin ayn\u0131 zamanda kazananlar\u0131 da vard\u0131r: Makroekonomik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmdeki olumsuzlu\u011fa ra\u011fmen, k\u00fcresel ekonominin baz\u0131 k\u00f6\u015feleri belirsizlikten fayda sa\u011fl\u0131yor. \u0130\u015fte kararan ekonomik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcme ra\u011fmen \u2013 veya bu y\u00fczden \u2013 iyi performans g\u00f6steren be\u015f sekt\u00f6r:<\/p>\n
ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump’\u0131n ge\u00e7en y\u0131l ikinci d\u00f6neminin ba\u015flamas\u0131ndan bu yana k\u00fcresel yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar adeta bir rollercoaster deneyimi ya\u015f\u0131yor. Ba\u015fkan\u0131n \u00e7o\u011fu zaman bir g\u00fcn \u00fcltimatom verip ertesi g\u00fcn de\u011fi\u015ftirdi\u011fi tutars\u0131z karar alma s\u00fcreci, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n \u201cTACO ticareti\u201d terimini kullanmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7t\u0131; burada TACO, \u201cTrump Always Chickens Out\u201d (Trump Her Zaman Cayar) anlam\u0131na geliyor. Morningstar Research Services’te hisse senedi ara\u015ft\u0131rma direkt\u00f6r\u00fc Sean Dunlap’a g\u00f6re, son d\u00f6nemdeki dalgalanma baz\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 endi\u015felendirse de, artan i\u015flem hacminden milyonlarca komisyon ve gelir elde eden yat\u0131r\u0131m bankalar\u0131 i\u00e7in bir nimet oldu. Dunlap, Al Jazeera’ye yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamada, “M\u00fc\u015fteriler pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 yeniden ayarlamak istiyor, bu y\u00fczden s\u0131k s\u0131k i\u015flem yap\u0131yorlar,” dedi. “Farklar artma e\u011filiminde, bu da bankalar gibi i\u015flem arac\u0131lar\u0131 i\u00e7in karl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor.” Bu hafta a\u00e7\u0131klanan 2026 ilk \u00e7eyrek sonu\u00e7lar\u0131, Morgan Stanley’nin bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131la g\u00f6re %29 art\u0131\u015fla 5,57 milyar dolar<\/b> kar bildirdi\u011fini, Goldman Sachs’\u0131n ise bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131la g\u00f6re %19 art\u0131\u015fla 5,63 milyar dolar<\/b> kar a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi. JP Morgan Chase de ilk \u00e7eyrek kazan\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131la g\u00f6re %13 art\u0131\u015fla 16,49 milyar dolara<\/b> ula\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bildirdi. Bankalar\u0131n hepsi, artan karlar\u0131n\u0131n arkas\u0131ndaki nedenler olarak y\u00fcksek i\u015flem seviyelerini, anla\u015fma yapmay\u0131 ve \u201cg\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc m\u00fc\u015fteri etkile\u015fimini\u201d g\u00f6sterdi. Ancak Dunlap, dalgalanman\u0131n \u00e7ok uzun s\u00fcrmesi halinde bankalar i\u00e7in bu patlama d\u00f6neminin tersine d\u00f6nebilece\u011fi konusunda uyard\u0131, \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar giderek daha temkinli hale gelebilir ve i\u015flem yapmak i\u00e7in bor\u00e7 almaya daha az istekli olabilirler.<\/p>\nTahmin Piyasalar\u0131<\/b><\/h3>\n
Ana ak\u0131m Wall Street bankalar\u0131 kar elde ederken, kripto tabanl\u0131 tahmin platformu Polymarket, ay\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana g\u00fcnde 1 milyon dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde<\/b> gelir elde ediyor. Platform, kullan\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n spor turnuvalar\u0131ndan se\u00e7imlere kadar her konuda e\u015fler aras\u0131 bahisler yapmas\u0131na olanak tan\u0131yor. Polymarket, sava\u015f\u0131n ba\u015flamas\u0131ndan bu yana iyi bir performans sergiliyor, ancak pop\u00fclaritesinden daha fazla faydalanmak i\u00e7in 30 Mart’ta \u00fccret yap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 revize etti. Kalshi, Novig ve Robinhood gibi rakip platformlar da ayn\u0131 i\u015f modelini takip ediyor, ancak Polymarket, \u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131 gibi \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n sonu\u00e7lar\u0131na bahis yap\u0131lmas\u0131na tart\u0131\u015fmal\u0131 bir \u015fekilde izin vermesi nedeniyle 2026’n\u0131n \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan kazanan\u0131 oldu. Merkezi olmayan finans platformlar\u0131 i\u00e7in veri analizi sa\u011flayan DefiLlama’ya g\u00f6re, Polymarket’in 30 Mart’ta \u00fccret yap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 revize etmesi, platforma 1 Nisan’dan bu yana 21 milyon dolardan fazla<\/b> \u00fccret kazand\u0131rd\u0131; bu rakam, Mart ay\u0131n\u0131n tamam\u0131 i\u00e7in 11,6 milyon dolar ve \u015eubat ay\u0131n\u0131n tamam\u0131 i\u00e7in 6,23 milyon dolard\u0131. DefiLlama’n\u0131n analizine g\u00f6re, mevcut e\u011filim devam ederse Polymarket bu y\u0131l i\u00e7inde sadece \u00fccretlerden 342 milyon dolar<\/b> kazanabilir. Anonim kullan\u0131c\u0131lar da ABD-\u0130ran ate\u015fkesi gibi \u00f6nemli olaylar\u0131n tarihlerini do\u011fru tahmin ederek milyonlarca dolar kazand\u0131, ancak s\u0131radan kullan\u0131c\u0131lar i\u00e7in sonu\u00e7lar genellikle daha az etkileyicidir. Bu ay yay\u0131nlanan ve 2022’den 2025’e kadar 70 milyon i\u015flemi analiz eden yeni bir rapora g\u00f6re, Polymarket kullan\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n en \u00fcstteki %1’i t\u00fcm i\u015flem kazan\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n %84’\u00fcn\u00fc<\/b> elde etti. Getirilerin bu kadar y\u00fcksek olmas\u0131, ABD federal d\u00fczenleyicilerinin \u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131 sonu\u00e7lar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik \u015f\u00fcpheli zamanlamal\u0131 bahislerin ard\u0131ndan tahmin piyasalar\u0131ndaki i\u00e7eriden \u00f6\u011frenenlerin ticaretine kar\u015f\u0131 \u00f6nlem alma s\u00f6z\u00fc vermesine neden oldu.<\/p>\nHavac\u0131l\u0131k ve Savunma Sanayii<\/b><\/h3>\n
Beklendi\u011fi gibi, havac\u0131l\u0131k ve savunma sanayii, Ukrayna, \u0130ran, Sudan, Gazze ve L\u00fcbnan’daki b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar ve k\u00fcresel savunma harcamalar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f nedeniyle bu y\u0131l patlama ya\u015f\u0131yor. IMF’nin Nisan ay\u0131ndaki bir raporuna g\u00f6re, d\u00fcnya \u00fclkelerinin yakla\u015f\u0131k yar\u0131s\u0131 son be\u015f y\u0131lda askeri b\u00fct\u00e7elerini art\u0131rd\u0131; bu da dronlardan f\u00fczelere kadar her \u015feyi her zamankinden daha fazla sat\u0131n ald\u0131klar\u0131 anlam\u0131na geliyor. Talep, \u00f6zellikle NATO \u00fclkelerinin 2035 y\u0131l\u0131na kadar savunma harcamalar\u0131n\u0131 gayri safi yurt i\u00e7i has\u0131lan\u0131n (GSY\u0130H) %5’ine \u00e7\u0131karma taahh\u00fcd\u00fcnde bulundu\u011fu Avrupa’da h\u0131zla art\u0131yor. Savunma sanayii de buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k borsada b\u00fcy\u00fck kazan\u00e7lar elde etti. 23 k\u00fcresel pazardaki havac\u0131l\u0131k ve savunma hisselerini takip eden MSCI D\u00fcnya Havac\u0131l\u0131k ve Savunma Endeksi, Mart ay\u0131 sonunda bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131la g\u00f6re %32 net getiri<\/b> bildirdi. Savunma endeksi, ayn\u0131 23 pazardaki 1.300 b\u00fcy\u00fck ve orta \u00f6l\u00e7ekli \u015firketi takip eden MSCI D\u00fcnya Endeksi’ni geride b\u0131rakt\u0131. K\u00fcresel borsalara daha geni\u015f bir genel bak\u0131\u015f sunan bu endeks, ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemde %18,9 net getiri<\/b> bildirdi.<\/p>\nYapay Zeka<\/b><\/h3>\n
Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l, Birle\u015fmi\u015f Milletler Ticaret ve Kalk\u0131nma (UNCTAD) ofisi, yapay zeka end\u00fcstrisinin 2023’te 189 milyar dolardan 2033’e kadar 4,8 trilyon dolara<\/b> y\u00fckselece\u011fini tahmin etmi\u015fti ve \u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131 bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc zedelemi\u015f gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcnm\u00fcyor. Economist Intelligence Unit’in k\u00fcresel ticaret ba\u015f analisti Nick Marro, “\u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131n \u015foklar\u0131na ra\u011fmen, yapay zeka ve yenilenebilir enerji gibi bir\u00e7ok sekt\u00f6rde hala dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131k g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz,” dedi. Yapay zeka patlamas\u0131n\u0131n bir \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fct\u00fc, Do\u011fu Asya’dan hala y\u00fcksek hacimde ihra\u00e7 edilen yar\u0131 iletken \u00e7ipler oldu, dedi. Listenin ba\u015f\u0131nda, EIU analizine g\u00f6re Mart ay\u0131nda bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131la g\u00f6re %61,8 art\u0131\u015fla 80,2 milyar dolarl\u0131k<\/b> rekor k\u0131ran mal ihracat\u0131 bildiren \u00e7ip \u00fcretim devi Tayvan yer al\u0131yor. EIU, bu art\u0131\u015f\u0131n bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131la g\u00f6re %124 b\u00fcy\u00fcyen ABD’ye yap\u0131lan ihracattan kaynakland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti. D\u00fcnyan\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00e7ip \u00fcreticisi olan ve k\u0131saltmas\u0131 \u201cTSMC\u201d ile daha iyi bilinen Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, 2026’n\u0131n ilk \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131nda bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131la g\u00f6re Yeni Tayvan Dolar\u0131 (NTD) baz\u0131nda %58 art\u0131\u015fla 572,8 milyar NTD (18,1 milyar dolar)<\/b> net gelir a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Bir di\u011fer \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fct olan ilk halka arzlar (IPO’lar) da end\u00fcstrinin \u015fimdilik kendine g\u00fcvendi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor; sekt\u00f6r liderleri Anthropic ve OpenAI’nin her ikisi de bu y\u0131l halka a\u00e7\u0131lmay\u0131 planl\u0131yor.<\/p>\nYenilenebilir Enerji<\/b><\/h3>\n
\u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131, fosil yak\u0131tlardan ge\u00e7i\u015fin sadece \u00e7evresel nedenlerle de\u011fil, ayn\u0131 zamanda enerji g\u00fcvenli\u011fi nedenleriyle de gerekli oldu\u011funu vurgulad\u0131. Sava\u015f, COVID-19 pandemisi ve 2022 Rusya’n\u0131n Ukrayna’y\u0131 i\u015fgalinin ard\u0131ndan bu on y\u0131ldaki \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fck enerji \u015fokunu i\u015faret ediyor. EIU’dan Marro, \u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131n “fosil yak\u0131tlardan uzakla\u015fma ve yenilenebilir kaynaklara \u00e7e\u015fitlenme aciliyeti g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda” yenilenebilir enerjiyi “g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi\u011fini” s\u00f6yledi. \u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131 ba\u015flamadan \u00f6nce bile, Uluslararas\u0131 Enerji Ajans\u0131 (IEA), k\u00fcresel h\u00fck\u00fcmetlerin jeopolitik nedenlerle yenilenebilir enerjiye yat\u0131r\u0131m yapmak i\u00e7in zaten aktif \u00f6nlemler ald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bildirmi\u015fti. Bu ay yay\u0131nlanan bir IEA raporuna g\u00f6re, “150 \u00fclkenin yenilenebilir ve n\u00fckleer enerji da\u011f\u0131t\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 ilerletmek i\u00e7in aktif politikalar\u0131, 130 \u00fclkenin enerji verimlili\u011fi ve elektrifikasyon politikalar\u0131 ve 32 \u00fclkenin kritik mineraller ve temiz enerji teknolojileri genelinde tedarik zinciri dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve \u00e7e\u015fitlendirmesini te\u015fvik etmeye y\u00f6nelik politikalar\u0131 bulunmaktad\u0131r.” \u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131, genellikle H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131’ndan ge\u00e7en petrol ve gaz\u0131n %80 ila %90’\u0131n\u0131 sat\u0131n alan Asya’da yeni bir politika yap\u0131m dalgas\u0131n\u0131 tetikledi. Bo\u011faz\u0131n kapanmas\u0131ndan bu yana b\u00f6lge, alternatif enerji kaynaklar\u0131 bulmakta zorlan\u0131yor ve h\u00fck\u00fcmetleri yak\u0131t karneleme ve fiyat \u00fcst s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131 gibi acil durum \u00f6nlemleri almaya zorluyor. G\u00fcney Kore, Tayland, Hindistan, Kambo\u00e7ya, Endonezya, Vietnam ve Filipinler, ev tipi g\u00fcne\u015f panelleri i\u00e7in vergi indirimlerinden yeni yenilenebilir enerji projelerinin devreye al\u0131nmas\u0131na \u2013 ve hatta n\u00fckleer reakt\u00f6rlerin yeniden ba\u015flat\u0131lmas\u0131na \u2013 kadar \u00e7e\u015fitli \u00f6nlemler a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Politika yap\u0131m\u0131ndaki bu art\u0131\u015f, yenilenebilir enerji end\u00fcstrisi i\u00e7in iyi oldu. Geli\u015fmekte olan ve geli\u015fmi\u015f piyasalarda g\u00fcne\u015f, r\u00fczgar, hidro, biyok\u00fctle ve di\u011fer yenilenebilir enerjiyi \u00fcreten 100 \u015firketi takip eden S&P Global Temiz Enerji Ge\u00e7i\u015f Endeksi, bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131la g\u00f6re %70,92<\/b> artt\u0131.<\/p>\n
#\u0130ranSava\u015f\u0131 #Ekonomi #WallStreet #YapayZeka #Ye\u015filEnerji #SavunmaSanayii #K\u00fcreselEkonomi #EnerjiG\u00fcvenli\u011fi #PiyasaAnalizi #Yat\u0131r\u0131m<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Uluslararas\u0131 Para Fonu (IMF), ABD-\u0130srail’in \u0130ran’\u0131 da etkileyen \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n\u0131n ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131’n\u0131n kapanmas\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fcnya ekonomisi \u00fczerindeki etkisini gerek\u00e7e g\u00f6stererek, 2026 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminini %3,3’ten %3,1’e d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc. Sava\u015f, K\u00f6rfez genelinde enerji altyap\u0131s\u0131na zarar verirken, \u0130ran’\u0131n bo\u011faz\u0131 kapatmas\u0131 ve ard\u0131ndan ABD donanmas\u0131n\u0131n \u0130ran limanlar\u0131n\u0131 abluka alt\u0131na almas\u0131 nedeniyle petrol, gaz, kimyasallar ve g\u00fcbre gibi kritik […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2910,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[24],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2909","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-iran_haberler"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2909","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=2909"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2909\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/2910"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=2909"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=2909"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=2909"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}