ABD-\u0130srail’in \u0130ran’a kar\u015f\u0131 sava\u015f\u0131, \u00e7evreleme politikalar\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131n\u0131<\/b> g\u00f6zler \u00f6n\u00fcne serdi, m\u00fcttefikleri b\u00f6ld\u00fc ve d\u00fcnyay\u0131 temkinli diplomasi ile riskli rejim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi<\/b> aras\u0131nda bir se\u00e7im yapmaya zorlad\u0131.<\/p>\n
ABD-\u0130srail’in \u0130ran ile son askeri \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131, sadece s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir askeri operasyon ya da kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 cayd\u0131r\u0131c\u0131l\u0131k d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn yeni bir a\u015famas\u0131 de\u011fil. Aksine, uluslararas\u0131 d\u00fczenin t\u00fcm yap\u0131s\u0131 i\u00e7in ufuk a\u00e7\u0131c\u0131 bir an\u0131 temsil ediyor. Bu \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma, jeopolitik b\u00f6l\u00fcnmeleri e\u015fi benzeri g\u00f6r\u00fclmemi\u015f bir \u015fekilde yeniden \u00e7izdi ve onlarca y\u0131ld\u0131r b\u00fcy\u00fck g\u00fc\u00e7lerin davran\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 y\u00f6neten varsay\u0131mlar\u0131n, \u00f6zellikle de \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n tarafs\u0131zl\u0131k veya geleneksel diplomatik ara\u00e7larla kontrol alt\u0131nda tutulabilece\u011fi inanc\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131n\u0131 ortaya koydu.<\/p>\n
Sava\u015f\u0131n ilk g\u00fcnlerinde anla\u015f\u0131ld\u0131 ki, d\u00fcnya art\u0131k y\u00f6netilen gerilimler ve kas\u0131tl\u0131 k\u0131s\u0131tlamalar mant\u0131\u011f\u0131na g\u00f6re de\u011fil, co\u011frafyan\u0131n ulus\u00f6tesi a\u011flarla kesi\u015fti\u011fi ve b\u00f6lgesel krizlerin h\u0131zla do\u011frudan k\u00fcresel \u015foklara d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015febildi\u011fi son derece ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 bir ortamda i\u015fliyor. \u0130ran, sava\u015f\u0131n ilk birka\u00e7 g\u00fcn\u00fcnde b\u00f6lgedeki bir\u00e7ok \u00fclkeye sald\u0131r\u0131lar d\u00fczenleyerek Amerikan varl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n yan\u0131 s\u0131ra K\u00f6rfez enerji ve di\u011fer altyap\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 hedef ald\u0131 ve neredeyse an\u0131nda k\u00fcresel piyasalarda aksakl\u0131klara yol a\u00e7t\u0131.<\/p>\n
Sava\u015f\u0131n seyri, “tarafs\u0131zl\u0131k” kavram\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7a\u011fda\u015f b\u00f6lgesel ba\u011flamlarda, \u00f6zellikle Orta Do\u011fu’da art\u0131k s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131<\/b> g\u00f6sterdi. \u00c7at\u0131\u015fma ara\u00e7lar\u0131 silahl\u0131 vekil g\u00fc\u00e7ler, hayati deniz koridorlar\u0131n\u0131n kapat\u0131lmas\u0131 ve k\u00fcresel enerji kaynaklar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik tehditlerle geni\u015fledi\u011finde, herhangi bir devlet, \u00e7abalar\u0131na ra\u011fmen, kendini krizin y\u00f6r\u00fcngesine bir \u015fekilde \u00e7ekilmi\u015f buluyor. \u00d6rne\u011fin, Katar, Washington ile Tahran aras\u0131nda arabuluculuk yapmak i\u00e7in y\u0131llar\u0131n\u0131 harcam\u0131\u015f, t\u00fcm taraflarla kanallar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131k tutmu\u015ftu; ancak sava\u015f ba\u015flad\u0131ktan saatler sonra sivil altyap\u0131s\u0131na ve enerji tesislerine y\u00f6nelik \u0130ran sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131yla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
Tarafs\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ilan etmek, s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmekten daha kolayd\u0131r.<\/b> \u0130ran’\u0131n K\u00f6rfez \u00fclkelerindeki enerji altyap\u0131s\u0131na y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131, bir\u00e7ok \u00fcreticiyi m\u00fccbir sebep ilan etmeye ve operasyonlar\u0131n\u0131 ask\u0131ya almaya zorlad\u0131. Katar’da, Qatar Energy LNG \u00fcretimini durdurdu ve bunun etkileri Avrupa’da Hollanda ve Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k’ta gaz fiyatlar\u0131nda yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 50’lik bir art\u0131\u015fla neredeyse an\u0131nda hissedildi; bu da k\u00fcresel ekonominin, enerji g\u00fcvenli\u011finin ve tedarik zincirlerinin art\u0131k do\u011frudan bu b\u00f6lgenin istikrar\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 oldu\u011funun bir hat\u0131rlat\u0131c\u0131s\u0131 oldu.<\/p>\nM\u00fcttefikler Anla\u015fmazl\u0131\u011fa D\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde<\/h3>\n
Zorlu veya uzla\u015fmaz rejimlerle ili\u015fki kurmak s\u00fcrekli bir zorluk olmu\u015ftur. Bir\u00e7ok NATO \u00fcyesi devlet, Washington’\u0131n geni\u015fletilmi\u015f i\u015fbirli\u011fi talebini destekleme konusunda isteksizlik g\u00f6sterdi veya tamamen reddetti. \u00c7ok tarafl\u0131 d\u00fczeyde, BM G\u00fcvenlik Konseyi i\u00e7indeki b\u00f6l\u00fcnmeler belirginle\u015fti: baz\u0131 \u00fcyeler \u0130ran’\u0131n K\u00f6rfez \u00fclkelerine y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 k\u0131narken, Konsey ABD-\u0130srail sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 hakk\u0131nda bir uzla\u015fmaya varamad\u0131; bu da b\u00fcy\u00fck g\u00fc\u00e7ler aras\u0131nda \u0130ran’a nas\u0131l yakla\u015f\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 ve onunla nas\u0131l ili\u015fki kurulaca\u011f\u0131 konusunda derin anla\u015fmazl\u0131klar\u0131 vurgulad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Ate\u015fkes yanl\u0131s\u0131 kamp, \u00f6nemli bir tarihi kayda dayan\u0131yor.<\/b> \u00d6rne\u011fin, Irak ve Libya’daki askeri m\u00fcdahaleler, rejimleri zorla devirmenin mutlaka istikrarl\u0131 sistemlerin in\u015fas\u0131na yol a\u00e7mad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6stermi\u015ftir; daha ziyade, kaos ve kurumsal \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015fe kap\u0131 aralam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Hem Irak’ta hem de Libya’da, d\u0131\u015f askeri m\u00fcdahaleler, her iki \u00fclkenin de hala toparlanmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 uzun s\u00fcreli \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmaya, par\u00e7alanmaya ve kurumsal \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015fe katk\u0131da bulunmu\u015ftur.<\/p>\n
Bu kamp, sava\u015f\u0131n bir kriz \u00e7arpan\u0131 oldu\u011funu ve \u00f6nceli\u011fin insani ve ekonomik bedeli durdurmak ve diplomatik yola geri d\u00f6nmek olmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini savunuyor, bu zorlu veya uzla\u015fmaz bir rejimle bir arada ya\u015famay\u0131 gerektirse bile. Ayr\u0131ca, \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclebilir bir sonucu olmayan kaosa k\u0131yasla g\u00f6receli istikrar\u0131 tercih edilebilir buluyor.<\/p>\n
Ancak, bu arg\u00fcman merkezi bir ikilemle kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya: \u0130ran y\u00f6netiminin geleneksel diplomasinin kurallar\u0131 i\u00e7inde kontrol alt\u0131na al\u0131nabilece\u011fini varsay\u0131yor; bu varsay\u0131m, \u0130ran’\u0131n 28 \u015eubat’tan bu yana kendi eylemleriyle sorgulan\u0131r hale geldi. \u00d6rne\u011fin, \u0130ran, hem Katar hem de Suudi Arabistan dahil olmak \u00fczere, topraklar\u0131n\u0131n \u0130ran’a kar\u015f\u0131 herhangi bir sald\u0131r\u0131 operasyonu ba\u015flatmak i\u00e7in kullan\u0131lmayaca\u011f\u0131na dair a\u00e7\u0131k g\u00fcvenceler vermi\u015f olan bir\u00e7ok K\u00f6rfez \u00fclkesini vurdu.<\/p>\n
Rejim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi yanl\u0131s\u0131 kamp ise kar\u015f\u0131t g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc benimsiyor;<\/b> sava\u015f\u0131n krizi yaratmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, aksine ger\u00e7ek do\u011fas\u0131n\u0131 ortaya \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 savunuyor. Bu kamp, \u0130ran’\u0131n deniz koridorlar\u0131n\u0131 hedef almas\u0131 veya vekalet sava\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 geni\u015fletmesi gibi davran\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n, y\u00f6netimin geleneksel ara\u00e7larla kontrol alt\u0131na al\u0131namayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 veya evcille\u015ftirilemeyece\u011fini kan\u0131tlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 iddia ediyor. Onlarca y\u0131ll\u0131k diplomasi ve yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131’n\u0131n kapat\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 engelleyemedi.<\/p>\n
Bu pozisyonun savunucular\u0131, n\u00fckleer anla\u015fma ve b\u00f6lgesel arabuluculuk dahil olmak \u00fczere onlarca y\u0131ll\u0131k diplomasinin, \u0130ran’\u0131n yeteneklerini ve etkisini kontrol alt\u0131na almak yerine geni\u015fletmesine yard\u0131mc\u0131 oldu\u011funu savunuyor. Bu kamp i\u00e7in \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm, y\u00f6netimin yap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirmekte yat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bununla birlikte, bu arg\u00fcman son derece karma\u015f\u0131k bir soruyu g\u00fcndeme getiriyor: rejim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011finden sonra ne olacak? B\u00f6lgedeki \u00f6nceki deneyimler, rejimlerin devrilmesinden sonra devletin yeniden in\u015fas\u0131 i\u00e7in ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 bir model sunmuyor ve bu se\u00e7ene\u011fi potansiyel kazan\u0131mlar\u0131ndan daha riskli hale getiriyor. Rejim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fini savunan kamp\u0131n g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne g\u00f6re, bu sava\u015f\u0131n ilk hamlesi, \u0130ran’\u0131n Y\u00fcce Lideri Ayetullah Ali Hamaney’in suikast\u0131 varsay\u0131m\u0131na dayan\u0131yordu; bu varsay\u0131m, devlet ba\u015fkan\u0131n\u0131n ortadan kald\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f\u00fc h\u0131zland\u0131raca\u011f\u0131 inanc\u0131na dayan\u0131yordu. Ancak, ilk sald\u0131r\u0131dan k\u0131sa bir s\u00fcre sonra bir halef se\u00e7ildi ve devlet kurumlar\u0131 i\u015flemeye devam etti.<\/p>\n
Ger\u00e7ekten de bu sava\u015f, uluslararas\u0131 d\u00fczenin kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya oldu\u011fu tehditlerin do\u011fas\u0131nda daha derin bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fc<\/b> ortaya koyuyor. Tehditler art\u0131k geleneksel veya devlet s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131 i\u00e7inde s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 de\u011fil; a\u011f tabanl\u0131 hale geldiler ve ayn\u0131 anda askeri, ekonomik ve dijital cephelerde yay\u0131labiliyorlar. Sadece d\u00fczenli ordulardan de\u011fil, milisler, siber sald\u0131r\u0131lar, ekonomik hedefleme ve deniz ge\u00e7i\u015flerinin kapat\u0131lmas\u0131 gibi birden fazla arac\u0131n birle\u015fiminden kaynaklan\u0131yorlar. Bu karma\u015f\u0131kl\u0131k, krizleri etkili bir \u015fekilde ele almak i\u00e7in geleneksel ara\u00e7lara, ister diplomatik ister askeri olsun, g\u00fcvenmeyi son derece zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Krizin temel nedenlerine de\u011finmeden \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n durdurulmas\u0131 \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131s\u0131 yapmak, ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz patlamay\u0131 ertelemekten ba\u015fka bir \u015fey olmayabilirken, sonras\u0131 i\u00e7in net bir vizyon olmadan radikal de\u011fi\u015fim pe\u015finde ko\u015fmak daha da b\u00fcy\u00fck bir kaosa kap\u0131 aralayabilir.<\/p>\n
Bu iki se\u00e7enek aras\u0131nda d\u00fcnya temel bir soruyla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya: Bir\u00e7ok devlet taraf\u0131ndan sorunun bir par\u00e7as\u0131 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclen bir y\u00f6netimle, onun d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc takip etmenin daha b\u00fcy\u00fck bir sorun yaratmas\u0131na izin vermeden nas\u0131l ba\u015fa \u00e7\u0131k\u0131labilir?<\/p>\n
A\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a g\u00f6r\u00fcnen o ki, gelecek a\u015fama, devletlerin uzun s\u00fcredir manevra yapmaya al\u0131\u015fk\u0131n oldu\u011fu gri alana \u00e7ok az yer b\u0131rakacak. Ya temkinli \u00e7evreleme mant\u0131\u011f\u0131 ya da kararl\u0131 \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm mant\u0131\u011f\u0131 ge\u00e7erli olacak. Her iki durumda da karar\u0131n maliyeti, sadece b\u00f6lgesel d\u00fczeyde de\u011fil, bildi\u011fimiz uluslararas\u0131 d\u00fczen i\u00e7in de a\u011f\u0131r olacak.<\/p>\n
#\u0130ranSava\u015f\u0131 #Tarafs\u0131zl\u0131kS\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131 #OrtaDo\u011fu #Jeopolitik #Uluslararas\u0131\u0130li\u015fkiler #EnerjiG\u00fcvenli\u011fi #Diplomasi #RejimDe\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi #K\u00fcreselKriz #B\u00f6lgesel\u0130stikrar<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
ABD-\u0130srail’in \u0130ran’a kar\u015f\u0131 sava\u015f\u0131, \u00e7evreleme politikalar\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6zler \u00f6n\u00fcne serdi, m\u00fcttefikleri b\u00f6ld\u00fc ve d\u00fcnyay\u0131 temkinli diplomasi ile riskli rejim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi aras\u0131nda bir se\u00e7im yapmaya zorlad\u0131. ABD-\u0130srail’in \u0130ran ile son askeri \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131, sadece s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir askeri operasyon ya da kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 cayd\u0131r\u0131c\u0131l\u0131k d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn yeni bir a\u015famas\u0131 de\u011fil. Aksine, uluslararas\u0131 d\u00fczenin t\u00fcm yap\u0131s\u0131 i\u00e7in ufuk a\u00e7\u0131c\u0131 bir an\u0131 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2988,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[24],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2987","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-iran_haberler"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2987","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=2987"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2987\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/2988"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=2987"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=2987"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=2987"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}