Orta Do\u011fu’da ilan edilen **iki ate\u015fkes**le birlikte, b\u00f6lgede tarihi at\u0131l\u0131mlar i\u00e7in zemin haz\u0131rlan\u0131yor olabilir mi? \u0130ran ve L\u00fcbnan’daki ate\u015fkesler ‘sars\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131’ olarak nitelendirilse de, sava\u015f\u0131n g\u00fcr\u00fclt\u00fcs\u00fc bir kez daha dindi\u011finde, bu an f\u0131rsatlarla ve risklerle dolu bir d\u00f6nemi i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
D\u00fcn gece **\u0130srail ile \u0130ran destekli Hizbullah milisleri aras\u0131ndaki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalara 10 g\u00fcnl\u00fck bir ara** verildi\u011fi duyurusu, ilk bak\u0131\u015fta **\u0130ran i\u00e7in bir zafer** olarak yorumlanabilir. Tahran rejimi, L\u00fcbnan’da bir ate\u015fkes talep etmi\u015f ve ABD ile g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin bu olmadan ilerleyemeyece\u011fini belirtmi\u015fti. Ate\u015fkesin y\u00fcr\u00fcrl\u00fc\u011fe girmesiyle birlikte \u0130ran, **H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131’n\u0131 ‘tamamen a\u00e7\u0131k’ ilan etti**\u011fini duyurarak yan\u0131t verdi.<\/p>\n
Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz hafta sonu \u0130slamabad’da yap\u0131lan maraton m\u00fczakere oturumlar\u0131, L\u00fcbnan’daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar devam etse bile (\u0130srail’in Beyrut’a y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lardan ka\u00e7\u0131nmas\u0131yla) ilerlemenin m\u00fcmk\u00fcn oldu\u011funu g\u00f6stermi\u015fti. Ancak hem \u0130ran hem de Pakistan, **L\u00fcbnan’\u0131n bu s\u00fcrece dahil edilmesi** konusunda \u0131srar etmi\u015fti. Bu durum, kuzey s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131na yak\u0131n ya\u015fayan \u0130sraillilerin b\u00fcy\u00fck tepkisini \u00e7ekti. Onlar, Ba\u015fbakan Binyamin Netanyahu’nun Amerikan bask\u0131s\u0131na boyun e\u011fdi\u011fini ve Hizbullah’\u0131n \u00fclkelerine bir daha roket atmamas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flayamad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorlar.<\/p>\n
Baz\u0131 \u0130sraillilere g\u00f6re, ate\u015fkes do\u011frudan \u0130ran’\u0131n i\u015fine geliyor ve \u0130srail’in \u00f6l\u00fcmc\u00fcl d\u00fc\u015fman\u0131n\u0131n olaylar\u0131n seyrini dikte etmesine olanak tan\u0131yor. Sa\u011fc\u0131 g\u00fcnl\u00fck Israel Hayom’dan Shirit Avitan Cohen, “Ate\u015fkes, \u0130srail’in ka\u00e7\u0131nmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 durumu, yani **\u0130ran ile L\u00fcbnan operasyon alan\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki ba\u011flant\u0131y\u0131 me\u015frula\u015ft\u0131rmay\u0131 fiilen onayl\u0131yor**” diye yazd\u0131. “D\u00fcn, Hizbullah ayr\u0131ca efendisinin ve L\u00fcbnan’\u0131n direksiyonun ba\u015f\u0131nda oldu\u011funu ve b\u00f6lgede olup bitenleri dikte etmeye devam etti\u011fini nihai olarak teyit etti.”<\/p>\n
Asl\u0131nda, bu \u00f6rt\u00fc\u015fen \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalara dahil olan t\u00fcm oyuncular son anla\u015fmadan bir \u015feyler elde ediyor. ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump ve \u0130ran liderli\u011fi i\u00e7in bu, ate\u015fkesi sa\u011flama konusunda takdir toplama \u015fans\u0131. Netanyahu, \u0130srail birliklerinin g\u00fcney L\u00fcbnan’da kalmaya devam etti\u011fine i\u015faret edebilirken, L\u00fcbnan h\u00fck\u00fcmeti aylarca s\u00fcren \u00e7abalar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan art\u0131k \u0130srail ile do\u011frudan m\u00fczakereler y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Hizbullah, ate\u015fkese uyaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtse de (‘teti\u011fin \u00fczerinde parma\u011f\u0131n\u0131n oldu\u011funu’ vurgulayarak) yenilgiye u\u011framad\u0131 ve silahs\u0131zland\u0131r\u0131lmayaca\u011f\u0131 konusunda \u0131srar ediyor. Hizbullah’\u0131n \u00fcst d\u00fczey lideri Vafik Safa, BBC’ye verdi\u011fi deme\u00e7te, “Ger\u00e7ek bir ate\u015fkes, \u0130srail’in \u00e7ekilmesi, esirlerin ve yerinden edilmi\u015f ki\u015filerin geri d\u00f6nmesi ve yeniden yap\u0131lanma olmadan **Hizbullah’\u0131n silahlar\u0131** hakk\u0131nda konu\u015fmak m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fil” dedi.<\/p>\n
Londra merkezli d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnce kurulu\u015fu Chatham House’dan Lina Khatib, ate\u015fkesin \u0130srail ve L\u00fcbnan’\u0131n y\u00fcz y\u00fcze g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerine zemin haz\u0131rlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, ancak iki \u00fclke aras\u0131ndaki bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcndeki engellerin \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck oldu\u011funu belirtiyor. Khatib, “Konu \u00e7ok karma\u015f\u0131k” diyor. “S\u0131n\u0131r belirleme, **Hizbullah’\u0131n silahs\u0131zland\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131** ve \u0130srail’in L\u00fcbnan topraklar\u0131ndan \u00e7ekilmesiyle ilgili.”<\/p>\n
\u0130srail ve L\u00fcbnan teknik olarak 1948’den beri sava\u015f halinde ve iki \u00fclke aras\u0131nda diplomatik ili\u015fki bulunmuyor. Ancak Khatib, bu haftaki Washington’daki \u0130srail ve L\u00fcbnan b\u00fcy\u00fckel\u00e7ileri aras\u0131ndaki do\u011frudan g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin, \u0130ran’\u0131n b\u00f6lgedeki konumunu g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmekten ziyade, **L\u00fcbnan’\u0131 \u0130ran’\u0131n elinden alma s\u00fcrecini ba\u015flatt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131** savunuyor. “**B\u00f6lgesel g\u00fc\u00e7 dengesi \u0130ran’dan uzakla\u015f\u0131yor**” diyor. “Art\u0131k L\u00fcbnan’\u0131 bir pazarl\u0131k kozu olarak kullanamayacak.”<\/p>\n
Ancak \u00e7ok \u015fey, ABD ile \u0130ran aras\u0131ndaki di\u011fer diplomatik s\u00fcre\u00e7te olup bitenlere ba\u011fl\u0131. Amerika ve \u0130srail’in **\u0130ran’\u0131n Orta Do\u011fu’daki ‘k\u00f6t\u00fc niyetli davran\u0131\u015flar\u0131’** olarak g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc \u015feyleri azaltmak, \u0130slamabad’da ikinci bir tur g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fme ger\u00e7ekle\u015firse Washington’\u0131n g\u00fcndeminde olacak. \u00d6zellikle \u0130srail i\u00e7in, **\u0130ran’\u0131n Hizbullah, Hamas ve Yemen’deki Husilere verdi\u011fi deste\u011fin k\u0131s\u0131tlanmas\u0131**, \u0130ran’\u0131n ‘Direni\u015f Ekseni’nin Yahudi devletini tehdit ve taciz etti\u011fi on y\u0131llara son vermek a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan hayati \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran, b\u00f6lgesel n\u00fcfuzunun hayati bir arac\u0131 olarak g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc bu durumu kolay kolay b\u0131rakmayacakt\u0131r. Ancak bu, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki zorlu engellerden sadece biri. Di\u011ferleri \u2013 **\u0130ran’\u0131n n\u00fckleer program\u0131n\u0131n kaderi ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131’n\u0131n gelece\u011fi** \u2013 ciddi m\u00fczakereler gerektirecek.<\/p>\n
Trump, her zamanki gibi kontrol\u00fc elinde tuttu\u011funu g\u00f6stermeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015farak, \u0130ran ile bir anla\u015fman\u0131n ‘\u00e7ok yak\u0131n’ oldu\u011funu, sava\u015f\u0131n ‘harika gitti\u011fini’ ve \u0130ran’\u0131n ge\u00e7en y\u0131l bombalanan \u0130sfahan’daki bir tesisin enkaz\u0131 alt\u0131nda oldu\u011fu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclen yakla\u015f\u0131k **440 kg (970 lb) y\u00fcksek oranda zenginle\u015ftirilmi\u015f uranyumu** (ba\u015fkan\u0131n ‘n\u00fckleer toz’ demeyi sevdi\u011fi) teslim etmeyi kabul etti\u011fini gazetecilere s\u00f6yledi. \u0130ran bu iddia hakk\u0131nda kamuoyuna a\u00e7\u0131klama yapmazken, yarg\u0131ya ba\u011fl\u0131 Mizan Haber Ajans\u0131’n\u0131n aktard\u0131\u011f\u0131 isimsiz bir yetkili, “Amerika’ya herhangi bir n\u00fckleer malzeme konusunda hi\u00e7bir zaman m\u00fczakere yap\u0131lmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131” belirtti.<\/p>\n
N\u00fckleer dosyadaki herhangi bir anla\u015fma, \u0130ran’dan **asla n\u00fckleer silah yapmayaca\u011f\u0131na dair bir taahh\u00fct** ve zenginle\u015ftirmeyi ne kadar s\u00fcreyle ask\u0131ya alaca\u011f\u0131 konusunda bir anla\u015fma da gerektirecek. Ard\u0131ndan, \u0130ran’\u0131n \u00fclkenin cephaneli\u011finde her zaman bulunan ancak yak\u0131n zamanda devreye sokulan di\u011fer silah\u0131 var: **H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131’n\u0131 kapatmas\u0131**.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran, dar su yolundaki deniz trafi\u011fini y\u00f6netecek **yeni bir protokol seti istiyor**. Mevcut ‘bo\u011faz kontrol\u00fc’n\u00fc, Umman ile birlikte K\u00f6rfez’e giri\u015f ve \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131 kontrol etme konusundaki egemen hakk\u0131n\u0131 tan\u0131yacak yasal bir \u00e7er\u00e7eveyle de\u011fi\u015ftirmek istiyor. Bu arada, \u0130ran D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakan\u0131 Abbas Arag\u00e7i, L\u00fcbnan’daki ate\u015fkese ho\u015f geldiniz diyerek, Bo\u011faz’\u0131n ‘ate\u015fkesin kalan s\u00fcresi boyunca tamamen a\u00e7\u0131k’ oldu\u011funu \u2013 yani \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki hafta boyunca \u2013 belirtti. Bir uyar\u0131 var: gemilerin Arag\u00e7i’nin ‘\u0130ran \u0130slam Cumhuriyeti Limanlar ve Denizcilik Te\u015fkilat\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan zaten duyurulan koordineli rotay\u0131’ kullanmas\u0131 beklenecek. Bu, sava\u015ftan \u00f6nce kullan\u0131lan iki trafik ayr\u0131m \u015feridinin kuzeyinde, \u0130ran ana karas\u0131na \u00e7ok daha yak\u0131n seyreden yeni rotalara at\u0131fta bulunuyor gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Bunun K\u00f6rfez i\u00e7inde s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131p kalan gemi trafi\u011fini ne kadar h\u0131zl\u0131 rahatlataca\u011f\u0131 hen\u00fcz belli de\u011fil. Trump, tipik co\u015fkulu \u00fcslubuyla, bo\u011faz\u0131n ‘TAMAMEN A\u00c7IK VE TAM GE\u00c7\u0130\u015eE HAZIR’ oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor ve piyasalar olumlu tepki vermi\u015f gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Ancak kaptanlar dikkatli olabilir ve Trump, **ABD’nin \u0130ran limanlar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik ablukas\u0131n\u0131n \u015fimdilik devam etti\u011fini** belirtiyor.<\/p>\n
Bu olumlu geli\u015fmelere ra\u011fmen, m\u00fczakerecilerin kat etmesi gereken \u00e7ok yol oldu\u011fu s\u00f6ylenebilir. \u0130ran ile yap\u0131lan son b\u00fcy\u00fck anla\u015fma olan **2015 tarihli Kapsaml\u0131 Ortak Eylem Plan\u0131 (JCPOA)**, yakla\u015f\u0131k 20 ay s\u00fcrd\u00fc ve sadece n\u00fckleer konuyu ele ald\u0131. Trump, 2018’de Amerika’y\u0131 anla\u015fmadan \u00e7ekerek anla\u015fman\u0131n \u00e7\u00f6kmesine yol a\u00e7t\u0131.<\/p>\n
Trump, h\u0131zl\u0131 bir anla\u015fma yap\u0131c\u0131 imaj\u0131n\u0131 yans\u0131tmay\u0131 sever, anla\u015fmalar\u0131n\u0131n ger\u00e7ekte neyi ba\u015far\u0131p ba\u015farmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 nadiren sorgular. 2018-19’daki Kuzey Kore lideri Kim Jong Un ile yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 iki zirvenin t\u00fcm tantanas\u0131na ra\u011fmen, toplant\u0131lar asl\u0131nda \u00e7ok az \u015fey ba\u015fard\u0131. Pyongyang n\u00fckleer program\u0131n\u0131 geli\u015ftirmeye devam ediyor.<\/p>\n
Ancak son alt\u0131 haftan\u0131n \u00e7alkant\u0131l\u0131 olaylar\u0131ndan sonra, bir t\u00fcr diplomatik s\u00fcre\u00e7 iyi bir \u015fekilde ilerliyor ve L\u00fcbnan’daki ate\u015fkesin ard\u0131ndan bir ivme kazanm\u0131\u015f durumda. Bu, nihai bir sava\u015fa geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fc engellemek i\u00e7in yeterli mi? Bunu Trump bile bilmiyor.<\/p>\n
#OrtaDo\u011fu #Ate\u015fkes #\u0130ranG\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri #H\u00fcrm\u00fczBo\u011faz\u0131 #L\u00fcbnan #\u0130srail #Hizbullah #N\u00fckleerProgram #Diplomasi #ABD\u0130ran<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Orta Do\u011fu’da ilan edilen **iki ate\u015fkes**le birlikte, b\u00f6lgede tarihi at\u0131l\u0131mlar i\u00e7in zemin haz\u0131rlan\u0131yor olabilir mi? \u0130ran ve L\u00fcbnan’daki ate\u015fkesler ‘sars\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131’ olarak nitelendirilse de, sava\u015f\u0131n g\u00fcr\u00fclt\u00fcs\u00fc bir kez daha dindi\u011finde, bu an f\u0131rsatlarla ve risklerle dolu bir d\u00f6nemi i\u015faret ediyor. L\u00fcbnan’daki Ate\u015fkes ve \u0130ran’\u0131n Rol\u00fc D\u00fcn gece **\u0130srail ile \u0130ran destekli Hizbullah milisleri aras\u0131ndaki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalara 10 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":3106,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[24],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3105","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-iran_haberler"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3105","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=3105"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3105\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/3106"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=3105"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=3105"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=3105"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}