Ortado\u011fu’da sadece bir de\u011fil, iki ate\u015fkesin y\u00fcr\u00fcrl\u00fc\u011fe girmesiyle, tarihi at\u0131l\u0131mlar i\u00e7in zemin haz\u0131rlanm\u0131\u015f olabilir mi?<\/p>\n
\u0130ran ve L\u00fcbnan’daki ate\u015fkesler “k\u0131r\u0131lgan” olarak tan\u0131mlansa da (ate\u015fkesler genellikle \u00f6yledir), sava\u015f\u0131n g\u00fcr\u00fclt\u00fcs\u00fc bir kez daha dindi\u011finde, bu an f\u0131rsatlarla dolu. Ve risklerle.<\/p>\n
Per\u015fembe gecesi \u0130srail ile \u0130ran destekli Hizbullah milisleri aras\u0131ndaki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalara 10 g\u00fcnl\u00fck bir ara verildi\u011fi duyurusu, ilk bak\u0131\u015fta \u0130ran i\u00e7in bir zafer niteli\u011finde. Tahran rejimi, L\u00fcbnan’da bir ate\u015fkes talep etmi\u015f, aksi takdirde ABD ile g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin ilerlemesinin beklenemeyece\u011fini belirtmi\u015fti. Ate\u015fkesin y\u00fcr\u00fcrl\u00fc\u011fe girmesiyle \u0130ran, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131’n\u0131n “tamamen a\u00e7\u0131k” oldu\u011funu ilan ederek yan\u0131t verdi.<\/p>\n
Ge\u00e7en hafta sonu \u0130slamabad’daki maraton m\u00fczakere oturumunun g\u00f6sterdi\u011fi gibi, L\u00fcbnan’daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar devam etse bile (\u0130srail sadece Beyrut’a y\u00f6nelik daha fazla sald\u0131r\u0131dan ka\u00e7\u0131narak) ilerleme m\u00fcmk\u00fcnd\u00fc. Ancak \u0130ran ve Pakistan, L\u00fcbnan’\u0131n da dahil edilmesi konusunda \u0131srar etti. Bu durum, kuzey s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131na yak\u0131n ya\u015fayan ve Ba\u015fbakan Benjamin Netanyahu’nun Hizbullah’\u0131n \u00fclkelerine bir daha roket atmamas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flamak yerine Amerikan bask\u0131s\u0131na boyun e\u011fdi\u011fine inanan \u0130sraillilerin b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6fkesine neden oldu.<\/p>\n
Baz\u0131 \u0130srailliler i\u00e7in ate\u015fkes, \u0130srail’in \u00f6l\u00fcmc\u00fcl d\u00fc\u015fman\u0131n\u0131n olaylar\u0131n gidi\u015fat\u0131n\u0131 dikte etmesine izin vererek \u0130ran’\u0131n ekme\u011fine ya\u011f s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Pop\u00fcler sa\u011fc\u0131 g\u00fcnl\u00fck Israel Hayom’dan Shirit Avitan Cohen bu sabah \u015f\u00f6yle yazd\u0131: “Ate\u015fkes, \u0130srail’in \u00fclkenin ka\u00e7\u0131nmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 durumu fiilen onaylamas\u0131na neden oluyor: \u0130ran ile L\u00fcbnan operasyon alan\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki ba\u011flant\u0131y\u0131 me\u015frula\u015ft\u0131rmak.”<\/p>\n
“D\u00fcn, Hizbullah ayr\u0131ca efendisinin ve L\u00fcbnan’\u0131n efendisinin hala direksiyonun ba\u015f\u0131nda oldu\u011funu ve b\u00f6lgede neler olup bitti\u011fini dikte etmeye devam etti\u011fini kesin olarak teyit etti.”<\/p>\n
Asl\u0131nda, bu \u00f6rt\u00fc\u015fen \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalara dahil olan t\u00fcm oyuncular son anla\u015fmadan bir \u015feyler elde ediyor. ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump ve \u0130ran liderli\u011fi i\u00e7in bu, bir ate\u015fkesi sa\u011flaman\u0131n ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 \u00fcstlenme \u015fans\u0131. Netanyahu, \u0130srail birliklerinin g\u00fcney L\u00fcbnan’da kalmaya devam etti\u011fine i\u015faret edebilirken, L\u00fcbnan h\u00fck\u00fcmeti, aylarca s\u00fcren \u00e7abalar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan \u015fimdi \u0130srail ile do\u011frudan m\u00fczakereler y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
“Teti\u011fe parma\u011f\u0131n\u0131n hala oldu\u011funu” \u0131srarla belirten Hizbullah, ate\u015fkesi uygulayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6ylese de yenilgiye u\u011framad\u0131 ve silahs\u0131zland\u0131r\u0131lmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u0131srarla vurgulad\u0131. Hizbullah’\u0131n \u00fcst d\u00fczey lideri Vafik Safa Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc BBC’ye verdi\u011fi deme\u00e7te, “Ger\u00e7ek bir ate\u015fkes olana kadar de\u011fil. \u0130srail \u00e7ekilene kadar de\u011fil. Mahkumlar\u0131n d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnden \u00f6nce, yerinden edilmi\u015f ki\u015filerin d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnden \u00f6nce ve yeniden yap\u0131lanmadan \u00f6nce de\u011fil. O zamana kadar Hizbullah’\u0131n silahlar\u0131 hakk\u0131nda konu\u015fmak m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fil” dedi.<\/p>\n
Londra merkezli d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnce kurulu\u015fu Chatham House’dan Lina Khatib, ate\u015fkesin \u0130srail ve L\u00fcbnan’\u0131n y\u00fcz y\u00fcze g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerine devam etmesinin \u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, ancak ikisi aras\u0131nda bir bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131na giden engellerin \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck oldu\u011funu belirtiyor. “Konu \u00e7ok karma\u015f\u0131k” diyor. “S\u0131n\u0131r belirleme, Hizbullah’\u0131n silahs\u0131zland\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 ve \u0130srail’in L\u00fcbnan topraklar\u0131ndan \u00e7ekilmesiyle ilgili.”<\/p>\n
\u0130srail ve L\u00fcbnan teknik olarak 1948’den beri sava\u015f halinde ve iki \u00fclke aras\u0131nda diplomatik ili\u015fkiler bulunmuyor. Ancak Khatib, bu haftaki \u0130srail ve L\u00fcbnan b\u00fcy\u00fckel\u00e7ileri aras\u0131ndaki Washington’daki do\u011frudan g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin, \u0130ran’\u0131n b\u00f6lgedeki konumunu g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmekten ziyade, L\u00fcbnan’\u0131 \u0130ran’\u0131n elinden alma s\u00fcrecini ba\u015flatt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 savunuyor. “B\u00f6lgesel g\u00fc\u00e7 dengesi \u0130ran’dan uzakla\u015f\u0131yor” diyor. “Art\u0131k L\u00fcbnan’\u0131 bir pazarl\u0131k kozu olarak kullanamayacak.”<\/p>\n
Ancak, di\u011fer diplomatik s\u00fcre\u00e7te, yani ABD ile \u0130ran aras\u0131ndaki s\u00fcre\u00e7te neler olaca\u011f\u0131 hala \u00e7ok \u00f6nemli. Amerika ve \u0130srail’in \u0130ran’\u0131n Ortado\u011fu’daki “k\u00f6t\u00fc niyetli davran\u0131\u015flar\u0131” olarak g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc \u015feyleri azaltmak, \u0130slamabad’da geni\u015f \u00e7apta beklenen ikinci tur g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler ger\u00e7ekle\u015firse Washington’\u0131n g\u00fcndeminde olacak.<\/p>\n
\u00d6zellikle \u0130srail i\u00e7in, \u0130ran’\u0131n Hizbullah, Hamas ve Yemen’deki Husilere verdi\u011fi deste\u011fin k\u0131s\u0131tlanmas\u0131, \u0130ran’\u0131n “Direni\u015f Ekseni”nin Yahudi devletini tehdit etme ve taciz etme yetene\u011fine sahip oldu\u011fu onlarca y\u0131l\u0131n sona ermesi hayati \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131yor. \u0130ran, b\u00f6lgesel n\u00fcfuz i\u00e7in hayati bir ara\u00e7 olarak g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc \u015feyden kolayca vazge\u00e7meyecektir.<\/p>\n
Ancak bu, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki zorlu zorluklardan sadece biri. Di\u011ferleri \u2013 \u0130ran’\u0131n n\u00fckleer program\u0131n\u0131n kaderi ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131’n\u0131n gelece\u011fi \u2013 biraz m\u00fczakere gerektirecek.<\/p>\n
Trump, her zamanki gibi kontrol alt\u0131nda oldu\u011funu g\u00f6stermek i\u00e7in elinden geleni yap\u0131yor, \u0130ran’la bir anla\u015fman\u0131n “\u00e7ok yak\u0131n” oldu\u011funu, sava\u015f\u0131n “harika gitti\u011fini” s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor ve muhabirlere \u0130ran’\u0131n ge\u00e7en y\u0131l bombalanan \u0130sfahan’daki bir tesisin enkaz\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131nda g\u00f6m\u00fcl\u00fc oldu\u011fu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclen yakla\u015f\u0131k 440 kg (970 lb) y\u00fcksek oranda zenginle\u015ftirilmi\u015f uranyumu (ba\u015fkan buna “n\u00fckleer toz” demeyi sever) teslim etmeyi zaten kabul etti\u011fini belirtiyor.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran d\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00f6zc\u00fcs\u00fc \u0130smail Ba\u011fayi bu iddiay\u0131 yalanlayarak devlet televizyonuna \u015funlar\u0131 s\u00f6yledi: “Uranyumun ABD’ye transferi bir se\u00e7enek olarak sunulmad\u0131. \u0130ran’\u0131n zenginle\u015ftirilmi\u015f uranyumu bizim i\u00e7in \u0130ran topra\u011f\u0131 kadar kutsald\u0131r ve hi\u00e7bir ko\u015fulda hi\u00e7bir yere transfer edilmeyecektir.”<\/p>\n
N\u00fckleer dosyadaki herhangi bir anla\u015fma, \u0130ran’dan asla n\u00fckleer silah yapmayaca\u011f\u0131na dair bir taahh\u00fct ile zenginle\u015ftirmeyi ne kadar s\u00fcreyle ask\u0131ya almaya istekli olaca\u011f\u0131na dair bir anla\u015fma da gerektirecektir.<\/p>\n
Bir de \u0130ran’\u0131n di\u011fer silah\u0131 var, her zaman \u00fclkenin cephaneli\u011finde olan ama yak\u0131n zamanda devreye sokulan: H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131’n\u0131n kapat\u0131lmas\u0131. \u0130ran, dar su yolundaki deniz trafi\u011fini y\u00f6netecek yeni bir protokoller dizisi istiyor, mevcut bo\u011faz kontrol\u00fcn\u00fc, Umman ile birlikte K\u00f6rfez’e giri\u015f \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131 kontrol etme egemenlik hakk\u0131n\u0131 tan\u0131yacak yasal bir \u00e7er\u00e7eveyle de\u011fi\u015ftirmeyi ama\u00e7l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu arada, \u0130ran D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakan\u0131 Abbas Arag\u00e7i, L\u00fcbnan’daki ate\u015fkese ho\u015f geldiniz derken, Bo\u011faz’\u0131n “ate\u015fkesin kalan s\u00fcresi boyunca tamamen a\u00e7\u0131k” oldu\u011funu \u2013 ba\u015fka bir deyi\u015fle, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki hafta i\u00e7in \u2013 belirtti. Bir uyar\u0131 var: gemilerin Arag\u00e7i’nin “\u0130ran \u0130slam Cumhuriyeti Limanlar ve Denizcilik Te\u015fkilat\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan zaten duyurulan koordineli g\u00fczergah\u0131” kullanmalar\u0131 beklenecek. Bu, sava\u015ftan \u00f6nce kullan\u0131lan iki trafik ayr\u0131m \u015feridinin kuzeyinde, \u0130ran ana karas\u0131na \u00e7ok daha yak\u0131n seyreden yeni g\u00fczergahlar\u0131 ifade ediyor gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Bunun K\u00f6rfez’de s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131p kalan gemi darbo\u011faz\u0131n\u0131 ne kadar h\u0131zl\u0131 hafifletece\u011fi hen\u00fcz belli de\u011fil. Trump, kendine \u00f6zg\u00fc iddial\u0131 tarz\u0131yla, bo\u011faz\u0131n “TAMAMEN A\u00c7IK VE TAM GE\u00c7\u0130\u015eE HAZIR” oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor ve piyasalar olumlu tepki vermi\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Ancak kaptanlar arkalar\u0131na bak\u0131yor olabilir ve Trump, ABD’nin \u0130ran limanlar\u0131na uygulad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ablukan\u0131n \u015fimdilik devam etti\u011fini belirtiyor.<\/p>\n
Bu olumlu geli\u015fmelere ra\u011fmen, m\u00fczakerecilerin kat etmesi gereken \u00e7ok yol oldu\u011fu s\u00f6ylenebilir. \u0130ran ile yap\u0131lan son b\u00fcy\u00fck anla\u015fma olan 2015 tarihli Kapsaml\u0131 Ortak Eylem Plan\u0131 (KOEP), m\u00fczakere edilmesi yakla\u015f\u0131k 20 ay s\u00fcrd\u00fc ve sadece n\u00fckleer konuyu ele ald\u0131. Trump, 2018’de Amerika’y\u0131 anla\u015fmadan \u00e7ekti ve bu da anla\u015fman\u0131n \u00e7\u00f6kmesine yol a\u00e7t\u0131.<\/p>\n
Trump, h\u0131zl\u0131 bir anla\u015fma yap\u0131c\u0131 imaj\u0131n\u0131 yans\u0131tmay\u0131 sever, anla\u015fmalar\u0131n\u0131n ger\u00e7ekte ne ba\u015fard\u0131\u011f\u0131na nadiren bakar. 2018-19’da Kuzey Kore lideri Kim Jong Un ile yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 iki zirveyi \u00e7evreleyen t\u00fcm tantanaya ra\u011fmen, toplant\u0131lar asl\u0131nda \u00e7ok az \u015fey ba\u015fard\u0131. Pyongyang n\u00fckleer program\u0131n\u0131 geli\u015ftirmeye devam ediyor.<\/p>\n
Ancak son alt\u0131 haftan\u0131n \u00e7alkant\u0131l\u0131 olaylar\u0131ndan sonra, bir t\u00fcr diplomatik s\u00fcre\u00e7 iyi bir \u015fekilde devam ediyor ve L\u00fcbnan’daki ate\u015fkesin ard\u0131ndan bir ivme kazanm\u0131\u015f olacak. Bu, sonunda sava\u015fa geri d\u00f6nmeyi \u00f6nlemek i\u00e7in yeterli mi? Bunu Trump bile bilmiyor.<\/p>\n
#Ortado\u011fuAte\u015fkes #ABD\u0130ranG\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri #H\u00fcrm\u00fczBo\u011faz\u0131 #L\u00fcbnan\u0130srail #Diplomasi #N\u00fckleerProgram #Hezbollah #B\u00f6lgeselGerilim #Bar\u0131\u015fS\u00fcreci #K\u00fcreselSiyaset<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Ortado\u011fu’da sadece bir de\u011fil, iki ate\u015fkesin y\u00fcr\u00fcrl\u00fc\u011fe girmesiyle, tarihi at\u0131l\u0131mlar i\u00e7in zemin haz\u0131rlanm\u0131\u015f olabilir mi? \u0130ran ve L\u00fcbnan’daki ate\u015fkesler “k\u0131r\u0131lgan” olarak tan\u0131mlansa da (ate\u015fkesler genellikle \u00f6yledir), sava\u015f\u0131n g\u00fcr\u00fclt\u00fcs\u00fc bir kez daha dindi\u011finde, bu an f\u0131rsatlarla dolu. Ve risklerle. \u0130ran \u0130\u00e7in Bir Zafer mi? Per\u015fembe gecesi \u0130srail ile \u0130ran destekli Hizbullah milisleri aras\u0131ndaki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalara 10 g\u00fcnl\u00fck […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":3228,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[24],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3227","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-iran_haberler"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3227","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=3227"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3227\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/3228"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=3227"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=3227"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=3227"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}