Orta Do\u011fu’da sadece bir de\u011fil, iki ate\u015fkesin y\u00fcr\u00fcrl\u00fckte olmas\u0131yla, tarihi at\u0131l\u0131mlar i\u00e7in zemin haz\u0131rlanm\u0131\u015f durumda m\u0131?<\/p>\n
\u0130ran ve L\u00fcbnan’daki ate\u015fkesler “istikrars\u0131z” olarak tan\u0131mlansa da (ate\u015fkesler genellikle \u00f6yledir), sava\u015f\u0131n g\u00fcr\u00fclt\u00fcs\u00fc bir kez daha dindi\u011finde, bu an hem f\u0131rsatlar hem de risklerle dolu.<\/p>\n
G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fc\u015fe g\u00f6re, Per\u015fembe gecesi \u0130srail ile \u0130ran destekli Hizbullah milisleri aras\u0131ndaki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalara 10 g\u00fcnl\u00fck bir ara verildi\u011fi duyurusu, \u0130ran i\u00e7in bir kazan\u00e7<\/b>. Tahran y\u00f6netimi, L\u00fcbnan’da bir ate\u015fkes talep etmi\u015f, ABD ile g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin bu olmadan ilerlemesinin beklenemeyece\u011fini belirtmi\u015fti. Ara verilmesiyle birlikte \u0130ran, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131’n\u0131 “tamamen a\u00e7\u0131k” ilan ederek<\/b> yan\u0131t verdi.<\/p>\n
Ge\u00e7en hafta sonu \u0130slamabad’da yap\u0131lan maraton m\u00fczakere oturumunun g\u00f6sterdi\u011fi gibi, L\u00fcbnan’daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar devam ederken bile (\u0130srail’in sadece Beyrut’a y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lardan ka\u00e7\u0131nmas\u0131yla) ilerleme m\u00fcmk\u00fcnd\u00fc. Ancak hem \u0130ran hem de Pakistan, L\u00fcbnan’\u0131n dahil edilmesi gerekti\u011fi konusunda \u0131srar etti. Bu durum \u015fimdi ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti ve kuzey s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131na yak\u0131n ya\u015fayan \u0130sraillilerin b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6fkesine neden oldu; onlar Ba\u015fbakan Benjamin Netanyahu’nun Hizbullah’\u0131n \u00fclkelerine bir daha roket atmamas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flamak yerine Amerikan bask\u0131s\u0131na boyun e\u011fdi\u011fine inan\u0131yorlar.<\/p>\n
\u0130srail’deki baz\u0131lar\u0131na g\u00f6re, ate\u015fkes do\u011frudan \u0130ran’\u0131n i\u015fine geliyor ve \u0130srail’in \u00f6l\u00fcmc\u00fcl d\u00fc\u015fman\u0131n\u0131n olaylar\u0131n gidi\u015fat\u0131n\u0131 dikte etmesine olanak tan\u0131yor. Pop\u00fcler sa\u011fc\u0131 g\u00fcnl\u00fck Israel Hayom’dan Shirit Avitan Cohen bu sabah \u015f\u00f6yle yazd\u0131: “Ate\u015fkes, \u00fclkenin ka\u00e7\u0131nmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 durumu, yani \u0130ran ile L\u00fcbnan operasyon alan\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki ba\u011flant\u0131y\u0131 me\u015frula\u015ft\u0131rarak \u0130srail’in onay\u0131n\u0131 fiilen veriyor.” “D\u00fcn, Hizbullah da efendisinin ve L\u00fcbnan’\u0131n efendisinin hala direksiyonun ba\u015f\u0131nda oldu\u011funu ve b\u00f6lgede olup biteni dikte etmeye devam etti\u011fini kesin olarak teyit etti.”<\/p>\n
Asl\u0131nda, bu \u00f6rt\u00fc\u015fen \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalara dahil olan t\u00fcm akt\u00f6rler son anla\u015fmadan bir \u015feyler elde ediyor. ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump ve \u0130ran liderli\u011fi i\u00e7in bu, bir ate\u015fkesi sa\u011flaman\u0131n takdirini kazanma f\u0131rsat\u0131. Netanyahu, \u0130srail askerlerinin g\u00fcney L\u00fcbnan’da kalmaya devam etti\u011fine i\u015faret edebilirken, L\u00fcbnan h\u00fck\u00fcmeti aylarca s\u00fcren \u00e7abalar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan \u015fimdi \u0130srail ile do\u011frudan m\u00fczakereler y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Ate\u015fkesi uygulayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yleyen (ancak hala “teti\u011fin \u00fczerinde parma\u011f\u0131 oldu\u011funu” \u0131srarla belirten) Hizbullah yenilgiye u\u011framad\u0131 ve silahs\u0131zlanmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u0131srarla vurguluyor. K\u0131demli Hizbullah lideri Vafik Safa Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc BBC’ye yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamada, “Ger\u00e7ek bir ate\u015fkes, \u0130srail’in \u00e7ekilmesi, esirlerin ve yerinden edilmi\u015f ki\u015filerin geri d\u00f6nmesi ve yeniden yap\u0131lanma olmadan olmaz. O zamana kadar Hizbullah’\u0131n silahlar\u0131 hakk\u0131nda konu\u015fmak m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fil,” dedi.<\/p>\n
Londra merkezli d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnce kurulu\u015fu Chatham House’dan Lina Khatib, ate\u015fkesin \u0130srail ve L\u00fcbnan’\u0131n y\u00fcz y\u00fcze g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerine devam etmesinin \u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, ancak ikisi aras\u0131nda bir bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131na giden engellerin \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck oldu\u011funu belirtiyor. “Konu \u00e7ok karma\u015f\u0131k,” diyor. “S\u0131n\u0131r belirleme, Hizbullah’\u0131n silahs\u0131zland\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 ve \u0130srail’in L\u00fcbnan topraklar\u0131ndan \u00e7ekilmesiyle ilgili.” \u0130srail ve L\u00fcbnan teknik olarak 1948’den beri sava\u015f halinde ve iki \u00fclke aras\u0131nda diplomatik ili\u015fkiler bulunmuyor.<\/p>\n
Ancak Khatib, bu haftaki \u0130srail ve L\u00fcbnan b\u00fcy\u00fckel\u00e7ileri aras\u0131ndaki Washington’daki do\u011frudan g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin, \u0130ran’\u0131n b\u00f6lgedeki konumunu g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmekten ziyade, L\u00fcbnan’\u0131 \u0130ran’\u0131n elinden alma s\u00fcrecini ba\u015flatt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131<\/b> savunuyor. “B\u00f6lgesel g\u00fc\u00e7 dengesi \u0130ran’dan uzakla\u015f\u0131yor,” diyor. “Art\u0131k L\u00fcbnan’\u0131 bir pazarl\u0131k kozu olarak kullanamayacak.”<\/p>\nABD-\u0130ran G\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinin \u00d6n\u00fcndeki Engeller<\/h3>\n
Ancak b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde, ABD ile \u0130ran aras\u0131ndaki di\u011fer diplomatik s\u00fcre\u00e7te ne olaca\u011f\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131. Amerika ve \u0130srail’in \u0130ran’\u0131n Orta Do\u011fu’daki “k\u00f6t\u00fc niyetli” davran\u0131\u015flar\u0131 olarak g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc \u015feyleri azaltmak, \u0130slamabad’da geni\u015f \u00e7apta beklenen ikinci tur g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi halinde Washington’\u0131n g\u00fcndeminde olacak. \u00d6zellikle \u0130srail i\u00e7in, \u0130ran’\u0131n Hizbullah, Hamas ve Yemen’deki Husilere verdi\u011fi deste\u011fin k\u0131s\u0131tlanmas\u0131, \u0130ran’\u0131n “Direni\u015f Ekseni”nin Yahudi devletini tehdit ve taciz edebildi\u011fi on y\u0131llara son verilmesi hayati \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131yor. \u0130ran, b\u00f6lgesel n\u00fcfuz i\u00e7in hayati bir ara\u00e7 olarak g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc \u015feyden kolayca vazge\u00e7meyecektir.<\/p>\n
Ancak bu, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki zorlu engellerden sadece biri. Di\u011ferleri \u2013 \u0130ran’\u0131n n\u00fckleer program\u0131n\u0131n kaderi ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131’n\u0131n gelece\u011fi<\/b> \u2013 biraz m\u00fczakere gerektirecek.<\/p>\n
Trump, her zamanki gibi kontrol alt\u0131nda oldu\u011funu g\u00f6stermeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor, \u0130ran ile bir anla\u015fman\u0131n “\u00e7ok yak\u0131n” oldu\u011funu, sava\u015f\u0131n “harika gitti\u011fini” s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor ve muhabirlere \u0130ran’\u0131n ge\u00e7en y\u0131l bombalanan \u0130sfahan’daki bir tesisin enkaz\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131nda oldu\u011fu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclen yakla\u015f\u0131k 440 kg (970 lb) y\u00fcksek oranda zenginle\u015ftirilmi\u015f uranyumu (ba\u015fkan\u0131n “n\u00fckleer toz” demeyi sevdi\u011fi) teslim etmeyi zaten kabul etti\u011fini belirtiyor. \u0130ran D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00f6zc\u00fcs\u00fc \u0130smail Baghaei bu iddiay\u0131 yalanlad\u0131 ve devlet televizyonuna \u015funlar\u0131 s\u00f6yledi: “Uranyumun ABD’ye transferi bir se\u00e7enek olarak sunulmad\u0131. \u0130ran’\u0131n zenginle\u015ftirilmi\u015f uranyumu bizim i\u00e7in \u0130ran topra\u011f\u0131 kadar kutsald\u0131r ve hi\u00e7bir ko\u015fulda hi\u00e7bir yere transfer edilmeyecektir.”<\/p>\n
N\u00fckleer dosya \u00fczerindeki herhangi bir anla\u015fma, \u0130ran’dan asla n\u00fckleer silah yapmayaca\u011f\u0131na dair bir taahh\u00fcd\u00fcn yan\u0131 s\u0131ra, zenginle\u015ftirmeyi ne kadar s\u00fcreyle ask\u0131ya almaya istekli olaca\u011f\u0131na dair bir anla\u015fma da gerektirecektir.<\/p>\n
Sonra \u0130ran’\u0131n her zaman \u00fclkenin cephaneli\u011finde olan ama ancak yak\u0131n zamanda kullan\u0131lan di\u011fer silah\u0131 var: H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131’n\u0131 kapatmas\u0131<\/b>. \u0130ran, dar su yolundaki deniz trafi\u011fini y\u00f6netecek yeni bir protokol seti istedi\u011fini, mevcut bo\u011faz kontrol\u00fcn\u00fc, Umman ile birlikte K\u00f6rfez’e giri\u015f \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131 kontrol etme konusundaki egemen hakk\u0131 olarak g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc \u015feyi tan\u0131yacak yasal bir \u00e7er\u00e7eveyle de\u011fi\u015ftirmek istedi\u011fini belirtiyor.<\/p>\n
Bu arada, L\u00fcbnan’daki ate\u015fkese ho\u015f geldiniz diyen \u0130ran D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakan\u0131 Abbas Aragchi, Bo\u011faz’\u0131n “ate\u015fkesin kalan s\u00fcresi boyunca tamamen a\u00e7\u0131k” oldu\u011funu \u2013 yani \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki hafta boyunca \u2013 belirtti. Bir uyar\u0131 var: gemilerin, Aragchi’nin “\u0130ran \u0130slam Cumhuriyeti Limanlar ve Denizcilik \u00d6rg\u00fct\u00fc taraf\u0131ndan zaten duyurulmu\u015f olan koordineli rota” olarak adland\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 rotay\u0131 kullanmalar\u0131 beklenecek. Bu, sava\u015f \u00f6ncesinde kullan\u0131lan iki trafik ay\u0131rma \u015feridinin kuzeyinde, \u0130ran ana karas\u0131na \u00e7ok daha yak\u0131n seyreden yeni rotalara at\u0131fta bulunuyor gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Bunun K\u00f6rfez i\u00e7inde s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131p kalan gemi darbo\u011faz\u0131n\u0131 ne kadar h\u0131zl\u0131 hafifletece\u011fi hen\u00fcz belli de\u011fil.<\/p>\n
Trump, kendine \u00f6zg\u00fc g\u00fcr sesiyle, bo\u011faz\u0131n “TAMAMEN A\u00c7IK VE TAM GE\u00c7\u0130\u015eE HAZIR” oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor ve piyasalar olumlu tepki vermi\u015f gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Ancak kaptanlar arkalar\u0131na bak\u0131yor olabilir ve Trump, ABD’nin \u0130ran limanlar\u0131na uygulad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ablukan\u0131n \u015fimdilik devam etti\u011fini belirtiyor.<\/p>\n
Bu olumlu geli\u015fmelere ra\u011fmen, m\u00fczakerecilerin kat etmesi gereken \u00e7ok yol oldu\u011fu s\u00f6ylenebilir. \u0130ran ile yap\u0131lan son b\u00fcy\u00fck anla\u015fma olan 2015 tarihli Kapsaml\u0131 Ortak Eylem Plan\u0131 (JCPOA), m\u00fczakere edilmesi yakla\u015f\u0131k 20 ay s\u00fcrm\u00fc\u015f ve sadece n\u00fckleer konuyu ele alm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Trump, 2018’de Amerika’y\u0131 anla\u015fmadan \u00e7ekerek anla\u015fman\u0131n \u00e7\u00f6kmesine neden oldu.<\/p>\n
Trump, h\u0131zl\u0131 anla\u015fma yapan bir imaj \u00e7izmeyi sever, anla\u015fmalar\u0131n\u0131n asl\u0131nda neyi ba\u015far\u0131p ba\u015farmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 nadiren geriye d\u00f6n\u00fcp bakar. 2018-19’daki Kuzey Kore lideri Kim Jong Un ile yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 iki zirvenin t\u00fcm tantanas\u0131na ra\u011fmen, toplant\u0131lar asl\u0131nda \u00e7ok az \u015fey ba\u015fard\u0131. Pyongyang n\u00fckleer program\u0131n\u0131 geli\u015ftirmeye devam ediyor.<\/p>\n
Ancak son alt\u0131 haftan\u0131n \u00e7alkant\u0131l\u0131 olaylar\u0131ndan sonra, bir t\u00fcr diplomatik s\u00fcre\u00e7 iyi bir \u015fekilde ilerliyor ve L\u00fcbnan’daki ate\u015fkesin ard\u0131ndan bir ivme kazanm\u0131\u015f olacak. Bu, sonunda sava\u015fa geri d\u00f6n\u00fclmesini engellemek i\u00e7in yeterli mi? Bunu Trump bile bilmiyor.<\/p>\n
#ABD\u0130ranG\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri #OrtaDo\u011fuAte\u015fkes #L\u00fcbnanAte\u015fkesi #H\u00fcrm\u00fczBo\u011faz\u0131 #N\u00fckleerProgram #Diplomasi #\u0130srailHizbullah #B\u00f6lgeselGerilim #Bar\u0131\u015fS\u00fcreci #Trump<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Orta Do\u011fu’da sadece bir de\u011fil, iki ate\u015fkesin y\u00fcr\u00fcrl\u00fckte olmas\u0131yla, tarihi at\u0131l\u0131mlar i\u00e7in zemin haz\u0131rlanm\u0131\u015f durumda m\u0131? \u0130ran ve L\u00fcbnan’daki ate\u015fkesler “istikrars\u0131z” olarak tan\u0131mlansa da (ate\u015fkesler genellikle \u00f6yledir), sava\u015f\u0131n g\u00fcr\u00fclt\u00fcs\u00fc bir kez daha dindi\u011finde, bu an hem f\u0131rsatlar hem de risklerle dolu. L\u00fcbnan Ate\u015fkesi ve \u0130ran’\u0131n Rol\u00fc G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fc\u015fe g\u00f6re, Per\u015fembe gecesi \u0130srail ile \u0130ran destekli Hizbullah […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":3260,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[40],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3259","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-dunya-haberleri"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3259","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=3259"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3259\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/3260"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=3259"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=3259"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=3259"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}