ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump’\u0131n ikinci d\u00f6nem ba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 boyunca, t\u00fcccarlar onun \u00f6nemli a\u00e7\u0131klamalar yapmas\u0131ndan hemen \u00f6nce milyonlarca dolar bahis oynad\u0131.<\/p>\n
BBC, \u00e7e\u015fitli finans piyasalar\u0131ndaki i\u015flem hacmi verilerini inceledi ve bunlar\u0131 ba\u015fkan\u0131n piyasalar\u0131 etkileyen en \u00f6nemli a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131ndan baz\u0131lar\u0131yla e\u015fle\u015ftirdi. Sosyal medya payla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 veya medya r\u00f6portaj\u0131 kamuoyuna a\u00e7\u0131klanmadan sadece saatler, bazen dakikalar \u00f6nce tutarl\u0131 bir y\u00fckseli\u015f paterni tespit edildi.<\/p>\n
Baz\u0131 analistler, bunun yasa d\u0131\u015f\u0131 i\u00e7eriden \u00f6\u011frenenlerin ticareti belirtilerini ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, yani genel halka a\u00e7\u0131k olmayan bilgilere dayanarak bahis oynand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtiyor. Di\u011ferleri ise durumun daha karma\u015f\u0131k oldu\u011funu ve baz\u0131 t\u00fcccarlar\u0131n ba\u015fkan\u0131n m\u00fcdahalelerini tahmin etmede daha usta hale geldi\u011fini s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
\u0130\u015fte en dikkat \u00e7ekici be\u015f \u00f6rnek:<\/p>\n
En b\u00fcy\u00fck hareketlerden baz\u0131lar\u0131 vadeli i\u015flem piyasas\u0131nda petrol ticaretinde ya\u015fand\u0131.<\/p>\n
ABD-\u0130srail’in \u0130ran ile sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131n dokuzuncu g\u00fcn\u00fcnde Trump, CBS News’e verdi\u011fi telefon r\u00f6portaj\u0131nda \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n “neredeyse tamamen bitti\u011fini” s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
18:29 GMT: Petrol bahisleri art\u0131yor<\/b>
\n19:16 GMT: Trump, sava\u015f\u0131n neredeyse bitti\u011fini s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor<\/b>
\n19:17 GMT: Petrol %25 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor<\/b><\/p>\n
Halk\u0131n r\u00f6portajdan ilk haberdar oldu\u011fu an, muhabirin X’te payla\u015f\u0131m yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 Do\u011fu Saati ile 15:16 (GMT 19:16) idi. Petrol t\u00fcccarlar\u0131, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n beklenenden \u00e7ok daha erken bitebilece\u011fi haberine petrol satarak tepki g\u00f6sterdi ve fiyat yakla\u015f\u0131k %25 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Ancak piyasa verileri, GMT 18:29’da, yani muhabirin payla\u015f\u0131m\u0131ndan tam 47 dakika \u00f6nce, petrol fiyat\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde b\u00fcy\u00fck bir bahis art\u0131\u015f\u0131 oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. Bu bahisleri yapan t\u00fcccarlar, petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki bu hareketten milyonlarca dolar kazanm\u0131\u015f olmal\u0131.<\/p>\n
23 Mart’ta, \u0130ran’\u0131n enerji santrallerini “yok etmekle” tehdit etmesinden sadece iki g\u00fcn sonra Trump, Truth Social’da Washington’\u0131n Tahran ile d\u00fc\u015fmanl\u0131klara “TAM VE KES\u0130N B\u0130R \u00c7\u00d6Z\u00dcM” bulmak \u00fczere “\u00c7OK \u0130Y\u0130 VE VER\u0130ML\u0130 G\u00d6R\u00dc\u015eMELER” yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 payla\u015ft\u0131. Bu, diplomatik g\u00f6zlemciler ve t\u00fcccarlar i\u00e7in b\u00fcy\u00fck bir s\u00fcrpriz oldu.<\/p>\n
10:48-10:50 GMT: Petrol bahisleri art\u0131yor<\/b>
\n11:04 GMT: Trump, d\u00fc\u015fmanl\u0131klara “tam \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm” hakk\u0131nda payla\u015f\u0131m yap\u0131yor<\/b>
\n11:05 GMT: Petrol %11 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor<\/b><\/p>\n
Hemen ard\u0131ndan hisse senetleri y\u00fckseldi ve y\u00fckseli\u015fte olan ABD g\u00f6sterge petrol fiyat\u0131 keskin bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ya\u015fad\u0131. BBC’nin o d\u00f6nemde bildirdi\u011fine g\u00f6re, ba\u015fkan\u0131n payla\u015f\u0131m\u0131ndan 14 dakika \u00f6nce ABD petrol fiyat\u0131 \u00fczerine al\u0131\u015f\u0131lmad\u0131k derecede y\u00fcksek say\u0131da bahis yap\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Ayn\u0131 patern, di\u011fer b\u00fcy\u00fck petrol g\u00f6stergesi olan Brent ham petrol\u00fc i\u00e7in s\u00f6zle\u015fme sat\u0131n alan t\u00fcccarlarda da g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Bir petrol analisti BBC’ye o d\u00f6nemde, i\u015flemlerin “kesinlikle anormal” g\u00f6r\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
Orta Do\u011fu’daki sava\u015ftan uzakta, dikkat \u00e7eken ba\u015fka i\u015flem faaliyetleri \u00f6rnekleri de var.<\/p>\n
Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l 2 Nisan’da Trump, Kurtulu\u015f G\u00fcn\u00fc ad\u0131n\u0131 verdi\u011fi, d\u00fcnyan\u0131n hemen her \u00fclkesinden gelen mallara y\u00f6nelik kapsaml\u0131 bir dizi g\u00fcmr\u00fck vergisi a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. D\u00fcnya genelindeki borsalar \u00e7ak\u0131ld\u0131. Ancak bir hafta sonra Trump, \u00c7in hari\u00e7 t\u00fcm \u00fclkeler i\u00e7in vergilerde 90 g\u00fcnl\u00fck bir “ara verme” duyurdu\u011funda, borsalar f\u0131rlad\u0131. G\u00f6sterge S&P 500 endeksi %9,5 s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131; bu, \u0130kinci D\u00fcnya Sava\u015f\u0131’ndan bu yana en b\u00fcy\u00fck tek g\u00fcnl\u00fck kazan\u00e7lar\u0131ndan biriydi.<\/p>\n
18:00 BST: T\u00fcccarlar borsan\u0131n y\u00fckselece\u011fi \u00fczerine b\u00fcy\u00fck bahisler yapmaya ba\u015fl\u0131yor<\/b>
\n18:18 BST: Trump, g\u00fcmr\u00fck vergisi aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 duyuruyor<\/b>
\n18:19 BST: Borsa tarihi y\u00fckseli\u015fine ba\u015fl\u0131yor<\/b><\/p>\n
Yine, bu olaylardan \u00f6nce al\u0131\u015f\u0131lmad\u0131k bir i\u015flem paterni g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc; S&P 500’\u00fc takip eden bir fon \u00fczerine duyurudan \u00f6nce al\u0131\u015f\u0131lmad\u0131k derecede y\u00fcksek say\u0131da bahis yap\u0131ld\u0131. BST 18:00’den hemen sonra i\u015flem g\u00f6ren s\u00f6zle\u015fme say\u0131s\u0131 dakikada 10.000’in \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. G\u00fcn\u00fcn erken saatlerinde bu say\u0131 y\u00fczlerle ifade ediliyordu. Baz\u0131 t\u00fcccarlar, yedi g\u00fcn \u00fcst \u00fcste kay\u0131p ya\u015famas\u0131na ra\u011fmen, o g\u00fcn borsan\u0131n y\u00fckselece\u011fi \u00fczerine 2 milyon dolardan fazla bahis yapt\u0131. Bu b\u00fcy\u00fck y\u00fckseli\u015f onlara yakla\u015f\u0131k 20 milyon dolar kar sa\u011flam\u0131\u015f olabilir.<\/p>\n
O hafta i\u00e7inde, ABD Senatosu’ndaki baz\u0131 \u00fcst d\u00fczey Demokratlar, Menkul K\u0131ymetler ve Borsa Komisyonu’na (SEC) yazarak, finansal d\u00fczenleyiciden ba\u015fkan\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n\u0131n “y\u00f6netimdeki i\u00e7eriden ki\u015fileri ve dostlar\u0131n\u0131 Amerikan halk\u0131n\u0131n zarar\u0131na zenginle\u015ftirip zenginle\u015ftirmedi\u011fini” ara\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131 talep etti. BBC taraf\u0131ndan bu iddialar\u0131 inceleyip incelemedi\u011fi soruldu\u011funda, SEC s\u00f6zc\u00fcs\u00fc yorum yapmaktan ka\u00e7\u0131nd\u0131. Beyaz Saray ise bu raporda analiz edilen ola\u011fan d\u0131\u015f\u0131 i\u015flem faaliyetlerinden herhangi biri hakk\u0131nda BBC’nin yorum talebine yan\u0131t vermedi.<\/p>\n
\u00c7evrimi\u00e7i tahmin piyasalar\u0131n\u0131n son d\u00f6nemdeki b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi de g\u00f6zlemcilerin dikkatini \u00e7ekti. Polymarket ve Kalshi gibi blok zinciri tabanl\u0131 platformlar, kullan\u0131c\u0131lara hava durumundan beyzbola, ABD d\u0131\u015f politikas\u0131na kadar her konuda spek\u00fclasyon yapma imkan\u0131 sunuyor. Ba\u015fkan Trump’\u0131n o\u011flu Donald Trump Jr., Polymarket’te yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 ve dan\u0131\u015fma kurulunda yer al\u0131yor. Ayr\u0131ca Kalshi’ye stratejik dan\u0131\u015fmanl\u0131k yap\u0131yor ve BBC taraf\u0131ndan yorum i\u00e7in kendisiyle ileti\u015fime ge\u00e7ildi.<\/p>\n
Aral\u0131k 2025: Burdensome-Mix hesab\u0131 olu\u015fturuldu<\/b>
\n2 Ocak 2026: Hesap, Maduro’nun g\u00f6revden al\u0131nmas\u0131 \u00fczerine 32.000 dolar bahis yat\u0131rd\u0131<\/b>
\n3 Ocak 2026: Maduro yakaland\u0131 ve Burdensome-Mix 436.000 dolar kazand\u0131<\/b><\/p>\n
Aral\u0131k 2025’te, Burdensome-Mix adl\u0131 bir kullan\u0131c\u0131 Polymarket’te bir hesap olu\u015fturdu. 30 Aral\u0131k’ta, Venezuela Devlet Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Nicol\u00e1s Maduro’nun Ocak 2026 sonuna kadar g\u00f6revden ayr\u0131lmas\u0131 \u00fczerine ilk bahsini yapt\u0131. 30 Aral\u0131k ile 2 Ocak aras\u0131nda Burdensome-Mix, bu pozisyona toplam 32.500 dolar yat\u0131rd\u0131. Maduro ertesi g\u00fcn ABD \u00f6zel kuvvetleri taraf\u0131ndan yakalan\u0131p g\u00f6revden al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, Burdensome-Mix 436.000 dolar kazand\u0131. K\u0131sa bir s\u00fcre sonra hesap kullan\u0131c\u0131 ad\u0131n\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirdi ve o zamandan beri hi\u00e7 bahis yapmad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Blok zinciri analiz sitesi Bubblemaps’e g\u00f6re, \u015eubat ay\u0131nda Polymarket’te alt\u0131 hesap olu\u015fturuldu.<\/p>\n
\u015eubat 2026: Polymarket’te alt\u0131 hesap olu\u015fturuldu<\/b>
\n28 \u015eubat: Hesaplar toplamda 1,2 milyon dolar kazand\u0131<\/b><\/p>\n
Hepsi, 28 \u015eubat’a kadar \u0130ran’a y\u00f6nelik bir ABD sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n ger\u00e7ekle\u015fece\u011fi \u00fczerine bahis oynad\u0131. Sald\u0131r\u0131lar o g\u00fcn\u00fcn erken saatlerinde Ba\u015fkan Trump taraf\u0131ndan do\u011fruland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, hesaplar toplamda 1,2 milyon dolar kazand\u0131. Bu alt\u0131 kullan\u0131c\u0131dan be\u015fi o zamandan beri ba\u015fka bahis yapmad\u0131, ancak hesaplardan birinin son aktivitesi, Washington ve Tahran taraf\u0131ndan o g\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131klanan 7 Nisan’a kadar bir ABD-\u0130ran ate\u015fkesi \u00fczerine do\u011fru bahis yaparak daha sonra 163.000 dolar kazand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Polymarket BBC’ye, “piyasa b\u00fct\u00fcnl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fcn en y\u00fcksek standartlar\u0131n\u0131 belirledi\u011fini, s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc ve uygulad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131” belirterek, bunu yapmak i\u00e7in d\u00fczenleyiciler ve kolluk kuvvetleriyle “proaktif olarak” \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ekledi. Bu y\u0131l Mart ay\u0131nda hem Polymarket hem de Kalshi, i\u00e7eriden \u00f6\u011frenenlerin ticaretini engellemek i\u00e7in yeni kurallar belirledi.<\/p>\n
Tahmin piyasalar\u0131 Emtia Vadeli \u0130\u015flemler Ticaret Komisyonu’nun (CFTC) yetki alan\u0131na giriyor. CFTC, BBC’nin yorum talebine yan\u0131t vermedi, ancak ba\u015fkan\u0131 yak\u0131n zamanda bir Kongre komitesine kurulu\u015funun doland\u0131r\u0131c\u0131l\u0131k ve i\u00e7eriden \u00f6\u011frenenlerin ticaretine kar\u015f\u0131 “s\u0131f\u0131r tolerans” g\u00f6sterdi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Ayr\u0131ca, Beyaz Saray’\u0131n ge\u00e7en ay personele, i\u00e7eriden bilgileri tahmin piyasalar\u0131nda bahis oynamak i\u00e7in kullanmamalar\u0131 konusunda uyar\u0131da bulunan dahili bir e-posta g\u00f6nderdi\u011fi ortaya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. S\u00f6zc\u00fc Davis Ingle o d\u00f6nemde BBC’ye, “Y\u00f6netim yetkililerinin kan\u0131t olmaks\u0131z\u0131n bu t\u00fcr faaliyetlerde bulundu\u011funa dair herhangi bir ima temelsiz ve sorumsuz bir haberciliktir” dedi.<\/p>\n
\u0130\u00e7eriden \u00f6\u011frenenlerin ticareti, 1933’te Menkul K\u0131ymetler Yasas\u0131’n\u0131n kabul edilmesinden bu yana \u00e7o\u011fu Amerikal\u0131 i\u00e7in yasa d\u0131\u015f\u0131d\u0131r. 2012’de ABD h\u00fck\u00fcmet yetkililerini de kapsayacak \u015fekilde geni\u015fletildi, ancak bug\u00fcne kadar bu yasa kapsam\u0131nda kimse yarg\u0131lanmad\u0131.<\/p>\n
ESSEC \u0130\u015fletme Okulu’nda finansal d\u00fczenleme hukuku konusunda uzmanla\u015fm\u0131\u015f profes\u00f6r Paul Oudin, kurallar\u0131n uygulanmas\u0131n\u0131n zor oldu\u011funu belirtiyor. Oudin, “Finansal otoriteler, bilgi kayna\u011f\u0131n\u0131n kim oldu\u011funu bulamazlarsa kovu\u015fturma yapmazlar” diyor. BBC’nin ileti\u015fime ge\u00e7ti\u011fi ABD finansal otoritelerinden hi\u00e7biri i\u00e7eriden \u00f6\u011frenenlerin ticareti iddialar\u0131n\u0131 kabul etmedi.<\/p>\n
Oudin, “Donald Trump’\u0131n ne a\u00e7\u0131klayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 birilerinin bildi\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a g\u00f6steren bir finansal enstr\u00fcman \u00fczerinde b\u00fcy\u00fck i\u015flemler olabilir” diyor ve ekliyor: “Yine de kimsenin yarg\u0131lanmama ihtimali y\u00fcksek.”<\/p>\n
#Trump #\u0130\u00e7eridenBilgiTicareti #FinansPiyasalar\u0131 #PiyasaManip\u00fclasyonu #DonaldTrump #Spek\u00fclasyon #PolitikaVePiyasa #Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar #EkonomiHaberleri #ABDPolitikas\u0131<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump’\u0131n ikinci d\u00f6nem ba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 boyunca, t\u00fcccarlar onun \u00f6nemli a\u00e7\u0131klamalar yapmas\u0131ndan hemen \u00f6nce milyonlarca dolar bahis oynad\u0131. BBC, \u00e7e\u015fitli finans piyasalar\u0131ndaki i\u015flem hacmi verilerini inceledi ve bunlar\u0131 ba\u015fkan\u0131n piyasalar\u0131 etkileyen en \u00f6nemli a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131ndan baz\u0131lar\u0131yla e\u015fle\u015ftirdi. Sosyal medya payla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 veya medya r\u00f6portaj\u0131 kamuoyuna a\u00e7\u0131klanmadan sadece saatler, bazen dakikalar \u00f6nce tutarl\u0131 bir y\u00fckseli\u015f paterni tespit […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":3564,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[24],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3563","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-iran_haberler"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3563","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=3563"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3563\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/3564"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=3563"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=3563"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=3563"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}