Analistler, s\u00fcresi dolmak \u00fczere olan bir ate\u015fkes ile olas\u0131 bir anla\u015fma aras\u0131nda, sava\u015f\u0131n seyrini etkileyebilecek \u00e7e\u015fitli yollar\u0131n bulundu\u011funu belirtiyor.<\/p>\n
ABD Ba\u015fkan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 JD Vance’in Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc \u0130slamabad’da \u0130ran ile sava\u015f\u0131 sona erdirmeyi ama\u00e7layan g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler i\u00e7in bir ABD m\u00fczakereci ekibine liderlik etmesi planlan\u0131yor. Ancak Tahran, bu son m\u00fczakere turuna kat\u0131l\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 hen\u00fcz teyit etmedi.<\/p>\n
Bu arada, k\u0131r\u0131lgan iki haftal\u0131k ate\u015fkesin \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc sona ermesi bekleniyor. Son iki g\u00fcndeki gerilim art\u0131\u015f\u0131 nedeniyle uzat\u0131l\u0131p uzat\u0131lmayaca\u011f\u0131 belirsizli\u011fini koruyor.<\/p>\n
ABD-\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinin 11 Nisan’da \u0130slamabad’daki ilk turu bir at\u0131l\u0131m olmadan sona ermi\u015fti. O zamandan beri ABD, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131’ndan ge\u00e7meye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan t\u00fcm \u0130ran ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 gemilere deniz ablukas\u0131 uygulad\u0131. \u0130ran ise hayati nakliye rotas\u0131ndan ge\u00e7meye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan gemilere ate\u015f a\u00e7t\u0131. Pazartesi sabah\u0131 erken saatlerde ABD, dar su yolundan ge\u00e7meye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan bir \u0130ran gemisine ate\u015f a\u00e7t\u0131 ve ard\u0131ndan el koydu.<\/p>\n
Tahran, gemiye el konulmas\u0131n\u0131 \u201ckorsanl\u0131k\u201d olarak nitelendirdi ve misilleme tehdidinde bulundu. Tehditler g\u00f6lgesinde g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelere kat\u0131lmay\u0131 reddetti. Trump, ABD’nin \u015fartlar\u0131na uygun bir anla\u015fmay\u0131 kabul etmemesi halinde ABD ordusuna \u0130ran’daki t\u00fcm k\u00f6pr\u00fcleri ve elektrik santrallerini havaya u\u00e7urma emri verece\u011fi uyar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 yineledi.<\/p>\n
Bu belirsizlik ortam\u0131nda, g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin ve ate\u015fkesin gelece\u011fi hakk\u0131nda her iki taraftan gelen son geli\u015fmeleri ve \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki birka\u00e7 g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde ortaya \u00e7\u0131kabilecek d\u00f6rt potansiyel senaryoyu inceliyoruz:<\/p>\n
Her iki taraftan son durum ne?<\/p>\n
Ate\u015fkesin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki saatlerde sona ermesi beklenirken, hem ABD hem de \u0130ran kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 tehditlerde bulunuyor.<\/p>\n
ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump taraf\u0131ndan 7 Nisan’da ilan edilen iki haftal\u0131k ate\u015fkesin Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc Washington, DC saatiyle 20:00’de (\u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc GMT gece yar\u0131s\u0131, Tahran’da 03:30 ve \u0130slamabad’da 05:00) sona ermesi gerekiyordu. Ancak Trump, son yorumlar\u0131nda s\u00fcreyi bir g\u00fcn erteledi\u011fini belirtmi\u015fti.<\/p>\n
\u0130slamabad \u00e7ok g\u00fcnl\u00fck g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelere ev sahipli\u011fi yapma haz\u0131rl\u0131klar\u0131na devam ederken, \u0130ranl\u0131 yetkililerden kat\u0131l\u0131p kat\u0131lmayacaklar\u0131na dair hen\u00fcz bir do\u011frulama gelmedi.<\/p>\n
ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131, \u0130ran’\u0131n m\u00fczakere edece\u011finden veya \u201cdaha \u00f6nce hi\u00e7 g\u00f6rmedikleri sorunlarla kar\u015f\u0131la\u015faca\u011f\u0131ndan\u201d emin oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
Trump, Truth Social’daki bir g\u00f6nderisinde ABD heyetinin Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc \u0130slamabad’\u0131 ziyaret etmeyi planlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 do\u011frulad\u0131. \u0130ran’\u0131 H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131’ndaki gemilere ate\u015f a\u00e7arak ate\u015fkese uymamakla su\u00e7layan Trump, \u015funlar\u0131 ekledi: \u201c\u00c7ok adil ve makul bir ANLA\u015eMA teklif ediyoruz ve umar\u0131m kabul ederler, \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc etmezlerse, Amerika Birle\u015fik Devletleri \u0130ran’daki her bir Elektrik Santralini ve her bir K\u00f6pr\u00fcy\u00fc yok edecek. ARTIK \u0130Y\u0130 ADAM YOK!\u201d<\/p>\n
Bu arada \u0130ran, tehditler g\u00f6lgesinde hi\u00e7bir m\u00fczakerenin yap\u0131lmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 savundu.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran parlamentosunun Ulusal G\u00fcvenlik Komisyonu \u00fcyesi Mohammad Reza Mohseni Sani, ABD ile g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin olas\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131 hakk\u0131nda daha fazla \u015f\u00fcphe uyand\u0131rd\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran’\u0131n Mehr haber ajans\u0131n\u0131n aktard\u0131\u011f\u0131 yorumlar\u0131nda, \u201cmevcut durumda m\u00fczakerelerin kabul edilemez oldu\u011funu\u201d belirterek, ABD’yi \u201ca\u015f\u0131r\u0131 talepkar olmakla\u201d ve i\u00e7 fayda i\u00e7in gizli hedefler pe\u015finde ko\u015fmakla su\u00e7lad\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u201cMevcut ko\u015fullar, son sald\u0131rganl\u0131klar ve ABD ile \u00f6nceki m\u00fczakerelerde ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z ge\u00e7mi\u015f g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, bir sonraki g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fme turu, Allah’\u0131n izniyle, masadan kalkm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r\u201d dedi.<\/p>\n
International Crisis Group d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnce kurulu\u015funun \u0130ran proje direkt\u00f6r\u00fc Ali Vaez, Al Jazeera’ye verdi\u011fi deme\u00e7te, ikinci tur g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerden \u00f6nceki temel engelin \u201cABD’nin diplomasiyi g\u00fcvenilir k\u0131lmak i\u00e7in yeterince bask\u0131y\u0131 azaltmaya istekli olup olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve \u0130ran’\u0131n g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri canl\u0131 tutmak i\u00e7in n\u00fcfuzunu yeterince s\u0131n\u0131rlamaya istekli olup olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131\u201d oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
Senaryo 1: G\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler ger\u00e7ekle\u015fir ve ge\u00e7ici bir anla\u015fmaya var\u0131l\u0131r<\/p>\n
Arabuluculuk \u00e7abalar\u0131na yak\u0131n kaynaklar Al Jazeera’ye verdi\u011fi deme\u00e7te, Pakistan’\u0131n ABD ve \u0130ran’\u0131 \u00e7ok g\u00fcnl\u00fck m\u00fczakereler \u00fczerinde anla\u015fmaya varmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti.<\/p>\n
ABD taraf\u0131nda Vance’e, Trump’\u0131n el\u00e7isi ve emlak geli\u015ftiricisi Steve Witkoff ile Trump’\u0131n damad\u0131 Jared Kushner’\u0131n, yani ilk tur g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelere kat\u0131lan ayn\u0131 ekibin kat\u0131lmas\u0131 bekleniyor. \u0130ranl\u0131lar gelirse, parlamento ba\u015fkan\u0131 Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf’\u0131n yine heyetlerine liderlik etmesi bekleniyor ve heyette D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakan\u0131 Abbas Araghchi de yer alacak.<\/p>\n
\u0130slamabad’daki arabulucular, nihai bir anla\u015fmaya varmak ve ate\u015fkese uzatmak i\u00e7in zaman kazanmak amac\u0131yla ABD ile \u0130ran aras\u0131nda bir \u201cmutabakat zapt\u0131\u201dna ula\u015fmay\u0131 hedefliyor.<\/p>\n
Vaez, \u201cBa\u015far\u0131, nihai bir anla\u015fma olmazd\u0131. Bu, g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri uzatan, ate\u015fkese istikrar kazand\u0131ran ve n\u00fckleer ad\u0131mlar\u0131n yapt\u0131r\u0131m hafifletme kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131nda takas edilmesi i\u00e7in bir \u00e7er\u00e7eve olu\u015fturan ge\u00e7ici bir anlay\u0131\u015f olurdu\u201d dedi.<\/p>\n
Ancak, Tahran’\u0131n n\u00fckleer program\u0131, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131’n\u0131n kontrol\u00fc, \u0130ran’a uygulanan yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar ve dondurulmu\u015f varl\u0131klar\u0131 da dahil olmak \u00fczere her iki taraf\u0131n talepleri ve beklentileri aras\u0131nda bariz farkl\u0131l\u0131klar bulunuyor.<\/p>\n
Chatham House d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnce kurulu\u015funun Orta Do\u011fu ve Kuzey Afrika Program\u0131’nda yard\u0131mc\u0131 ara\u015ft\u0131rmac\u0131 olan Aniseh Bassiri Tabrizi, \u201c\u0130ki taraf tutumlar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirmezse, \u0130slamabad’da bir anla\u015fma olamaz\u201d dedi.<\/p>\n
Senaryo 2: G\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler bir at\u0131l\u0131m olmadan ama ate\u015fkesin uzat\u0131lmas\u0131yla sona erer<\/p>\n
Tabrizi, g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerde anlaml\u0131 bir ilerleme kaydedilmesi i\u00e7in \u201cher iki tarafta da uzla\u015fmalar olmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini, \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc \u015fu anda bir anla\u015fmaya varmak i\u00e7in \u00e7ok fazla bo\u015fluk oldu\u011funu\u201d s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
\u201cBu de\u011fi\u015fmedik\u00e7e, bir anla\u015fma g\u00f6rmemiz pek olas\u0131 de\u011fil\u201d dedi.<\/p>\n
Trump, son g\u00fcnlerde \u0130ran’\u0131n t\u00fcm uranyum zenginle\u015ftirmeyi durdurmas\u0131 ve mevcut zenginle\u015ftirilmi\u015f uranyum stokunu teslim etmesi konusundaki \u0131srar\u0131n\u0131 ikiye katlad\u0131. \u0130ran bu talepleri reddetti.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00f6zc\u00fcs\u00fc Esmaeil Baghaei Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc, \u201cABD deneyimlerinden ders alm\u0131yor. Ve bu asla iyi sonu\u00e7lar do\u011furmayacak\u201d dedi.<\/p>\n
Yine de Tabrizi, ikinci tur g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerde bir at\u0131l\u0131m olmasa bile, iki taraf\u0131n \u201cbir t\u00fcr ge\u00e7ici ate\u015fkes uzatmas\u0131\u201d \u00fczerinde anla\u015fabilece\u011fini ve bunun diplomasiye ba\u015fka bir \u015fans verece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
Senaryo 3: G\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler olmaz ama ate\u015fkes uzat\u0131l\u0131r<\/p>\n
Trump, Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc Bloomberg News’e verdi\u011fi deme\u00e7te, ate\u015fkesi \u201c\u00c7ar\u015famba ak\u015fam\u0131 Washington saatiyle\u201d sona ermi\u015f sayd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve bir anla\u015fmaya var\u0131lmazsa uzatmas\u0131n\u0131n \u201cson derece d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bir ihtimal\u201d oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
Yine de, analistler, Truth Social platformunda son dakika bir g\u00f6nderi ile ate\u015fkesin uzat\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n \u2013 \u0130ran \u0130slamabad’daki g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelere gelmeyi reddetse bile \u2013 \u015fa\u015f\u0131rt\u0131c\u0131 olmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti.<\/p>\n
Vaez, \u201c[Bu] k\u0131r\u0131lgan bir duraklama olurdu, kal\u0131c\u0131 bir ate\u015fkes de\u011fil\u201d dedi. \u201cDeniz bask\u0131s\u0131 ve kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 su\u00e7lamalar devam etti\u011fi s\u00fcrece, yanl\u0131\u015f hesaplama riski \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek kal\u0131r.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cDiplomatik bir \u00e7er\u00e7eve olmadan, bu zaman kazanmak olurdu, istikrar in\u015fa etmek de\u011fil\u201d diye ekledi.<\/p>\n
Tabrizi de ayn\u0131 fikirdeydi. Ancak sava\u015f\u0131n ABD-\u0130ran denklemini temelden de\u011fi\u015ftirdi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
Tabrizi, \u201cBa\u015fkan Trump, rejim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011finin ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti\u011fini \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc muhatap olduklar\u0131 fig\u00fcrlerin farkl\u0131 oldu\u011funu savunuyor\u201d dedi. \u201c\u0130ran muhtemelen ABD’yi \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar ba\u015flamadan \u00f6nceki gibi varolu\u015fsal bir tehdit olarak g\u00f6rm\u00fcyor.\u201d<\/p>\n
Senaryo 4: G\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z olur ve ate\u015fkes sona erer<\/p>\n
Trump’\u0131n bir anla\u015fma olmamas\u0131 halinde \u0130ran’\u0131 bombalamaya yeniden ba\u015flama y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki tekrarlanan tehditleri, d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc bir senaryoyu da ortaya koyuyor: E\u011fer \u0130ranl\u0131 m\u00fczakereciler g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler i\u00e7in \u0130slamabad’a gitmezse, bu tehdit test edilmi\u015f olacak.<\/p>\n
Trump, Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc PBS News’e ate\u015fkes sona ererse ne olaca\u011f\u0131 soruldu\u011funda, \u201cO zaman \u00e7ok say\u0131da bomba patlamaya ba\u015flar\u201d dedi. Trump, \u0130ran’\u0131n m\u00fczakereler i\u00e7in \u201corada olmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini\u201d de ekledi. \u201cOrada olup olmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rece\u011fiz. Orada olmazlarsa, bu da sorun de\u011fil\u201d dedi.<\/p>\n
Ghalibaf Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamada, Trump’\u0131n \u201ckendi hayal g\u00fcc\u00fcnde bu m\u00fczakere masas\u0131n\u0131 bir teslimiyet masas\u0131na d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcrmeye veya yeniden sava\u015f \u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131rtkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 hakl\u0131 \u00e7\u0131karmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131\u201d s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
\u201cSava\u015f alan\u0131nda yeni kartlar ortaya \u00e7\u0131karmaya haz\u0131rland\u0131k\u201d diye ekleyerek, Tahran’\u0131n \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n yeniden ba\u015flamas\u0131na askeri olarak haz\u0131r oldu\u011funu ima etti.<\/p>\n
Ancak ate\u015fkes \u00e7\u00f6kerse, \u201cbir sonraki tur \u00e7ok h\u0131zl\u0131 bir \u015fekilde \u00e7ok \u00e7irkinle\u015febilir\u201d diye uyard\u0131 Vaez. \u201cABD muhtemelen \u0130ran’daki kritik altyap\u0131y\u0131 hedef alacak, bu da b\u00f6lgenin geri kalan\u0131n\u0131 ate\u015fe verecektir.\u201d<\/p>\n
#\u0130ranABD #Ate\u015fkes #Diplomasi #H\u00fcrm\u00fczBo\u011faz\u0131 #N\u00fckleerAnla\u015fma #Gerilim #OrtaDo\u011fu #Sava\u015fSenaryolar\u0131 #Uluslararas\u0131\u0130li\u015fkiler #Trump<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Analistler, s\u00fcresi dolmak \u00fczere olan bir ate\u015fkes ile olas\u0131 bir anla\u015fma aras\u0131nda, sava\u015f\u0131n seyrini etkileyebilecek \u00e7e\u015fitli yollar\u0131n bulundu\u011funu belirtiyor. ABD Ba\u015fkan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 JD Vance’in Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc \u0130slamabad’da \u0130ran ile sava\u015f\u0131 sona erdirmeyi ama\u00e7layan g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler i\u00e7in bir ABD m\u00fczakereci ekibine liderlik etmesi planlan\u0131yor. Ancak Tahran, bu son m\u00fczakere turuna kat\u0131l\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 hen\u00fcz teyit etmedi. Bu arada, k\u0131r\u0131lgan […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":4288,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[28],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4287","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-orta-dogu-haberleri"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4287","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=4287"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4287\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/4288"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=4287"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=4287"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=4287"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}