ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump y\u00f6netiminin \u0130ran ekonomisini s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131rarak Tahran’\u0131 sava\u015f\u0131n sona ermesi i\u00e7in kendi \u015fartlar\u0131n\u0131 kabul etmeye zorlamas\u0131yla birlikte, ABD’nin \u0130ran’a y\u00f6nelik deniz ablukas\u0131 y\u00fcr\u00fcrl\u00fc\u011fe girdi.
\nAbluka Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc GMT ile 14:00’te ba\u015flad\u0131. \u0130ran silahl\u0131 kuvvetleri bunu “yasa d\u0131\u015f\u0131 bir eylem” ve “korsanl\u0131k” olarak nitelendirdi.
\nAnalistler, \u0130ran’\u0131n ABD yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131na al\u0131\u015fk\u0131n olmas\u0131na ve sava\u015f s\u0131ras\u0131nda i\u015flevini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesine ra\u011fmen, b\u00f6yle bir ablukan\u0131n \u0130ran ekonomisine \u00f6nemli zarar verebilece\u011fini belirtti.
\nBu abluka \u0130ran’a ne kadar zarar verebilir? \u0130\u015fte bildiklerimiz:
\nAbluka \u0130ran’\u0131n petrol gelirlerini nas\u0131l etkileyecek?
\n\u0130ran, petrol ve gaz ihracat\u0131n\u0131 a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olarak limanlar\u0131 \u00fczerinden yap\u0131yor. 28 \u015eubat’ta ABD-\u0130srail’in \u0130ran’a y\u00f6nelik sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015flamas\u0131ndan k\u0131sa bir s\u00fcre sonra, Tahran’daki yetkililer, d\u00fcnya petrol ve gaz arz\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 20’sinin bar\u0131\u015f zaman\u0131nda ge\u00e7ti\u011fi, K\u00f6rfez’den \u00e7\u0131kan tek su yolu olan H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131’n\u0131n kapat\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 duyurdu.
\nBu hayati ge\u00e7i\u015f noktas\u0131n\u0131n neredeyse kapanmas\u0131, k\u00fcresel petrol ve gaz fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 f\u0131rlatt\u0131 ve o zamandan beri \u0130ran bo\u011faz\u0131 kontrol etti: Sadece Tahran ile bireysel anla\u015fmalar yapan birka\u00e7 \u00fclkenin gemilerine ge\u00e7i\u015f izni verildi.
\nAncak bu s\u00fcre boyunca \u0130ran, enerji \u00fcr\u00fcnlerini bo\u011faz \u00fczerinden ihra\u00e7 etmeye devam etti.
\n\u0130ran’\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00fczerinden yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 petrol ihracat\u0131, toplam ihracat\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 80’ini olu\u015fturuyor. Ticaret istihbarat firmas\u0131 Kpler’e g\u00f6re, \u0130ran Mart ay\u0131nda g\u00fcnl\u00fck 1.84 milyon varil (bpd) ham petrol ihra\u00e7 etti ve Nisan ay\u0131nda \u015fu ana kadar g\u00fcnl\u00fck 1.71 milyon varil sevk etti; bu rakam 2025’teki g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalama 1.68 milyon varil ile kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda daha y\u00fcksek.
\nBa\u015fka bir deyi\u015fle, \u0130ran’\u0131n bo\u011faz \u00fczerinden yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 ihracat Mart ve Nisan ba\u015f\u0131nda asl\u0131nda artt\u0131.
\n15 Mart’tan 14 Nisan’a kadar 55.22 milyon varil petrol ihra\u00e7 etti. \u0130ran petrol\u00fcn\u00fcn varil fiyat\u0131 \u2013 \u0130ran hafif, \u0130ran a\u011f\u0131r ve Forozan kar\u0131\u015f\u0131m\u0131 olarak bilinen \u00fc\u00e7 ana varyant\u0131nda \u2013 son bir ayda varil ba\u015f\u0131na 90 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na d\u00fc\u015fmedi. Bir\u00e7ok g\u00fcn, fiyat asl\u0131nda varil ba\u015f\u0131na 100 dolar\u0131 a\u015ft\u0131.
\nVaril ba\u015f\u0131na 90 dolarl\u0131k muhafazakar bir tahminle bile, \u0130ran son bir ayda petrol ihracat\u0131ndan 4.97 milyar dolar kazanm\u0131\u015f olacakt\u0131.
\nBuna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, sava\u015f ba\u015flamadan \u00f6nceki \u015eubat ba\u015f\u0131nda \u0130ran, ham petrol ihracat\u0131ndan g\u00fcnde yakla\u015f\u0131k 115 milyon dolar, yani ayda 3.45 milyar dolar kazan\u0131yordu.
\nBasit\u00e7e s\u00f6ylemek gerekirse, \u0130ran son bir ayda petrol ihracat\u0131ndan sava\u015f \u00f6ncesine g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 40 daha fazla kazan\u00e7 elde etti.
\nAncak \u015fimdi, ABD ordusunun \u0130ran limanlar\u0131n\u0131 ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131’n\u0131 ablukaya almas\u0131yla, Tahran’\u0131n ham petrol ihra\u00e7 etme kapasitesi do\u011frudan ve dramatik bir \u015fekilde darbe ald\u0131, uzmanlar b\u00f6yle s\u00f6yledi.
\nDoha Lisans\u00fcst\u00fc \u00c7al\u0131\u015fmalar Enstit\u00fcs\u00fc’nden Profes\u00f6r Mohamad Elmasry, Al Jazeera’ye yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamada, Tahran’\u0131n bo\u011fazdan ge\u00e7mesine izin verdi\u011fi \u0130ran d\u0131\u015f\u0131 gemilerden \u00fccret toplad\u0131\u011f\u0131na at\u0131fta bulunarak, “\u0130ran petrol ihra\u00e7 edemeyecek, en az\u0131ndan ayn\u0131 seviyede de\u011fil” dedi. “\u0130ranl\u0131lar ayr\u0131ca ge\u00e7i\u015f \u00fccreti de alamayacak.”
\nK\u00fcresel \u0130li\u015fkiler Ortado\u011fu Konseyi’nde yerle\u015fik olmayan k\u0131demli ara\u015ft\u0131rmac\u0131 Frederic Schneider de bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fe kat\u0131ld\u0131.
\nAl Jazeera’ye verdi\u011fi deme\u00e7te, \u00f6nceki alt\u0131 haftan\u0131n petrol gelirleri a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u0130ran i\u00e7in bir nimet oldu\u011funu, ancak ABD ablukas\u0131yla bunun de\u011fi\u015fece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.
\n“\u0130ran’\u0131n y\u00fczen tanklarda, yani park edilmi\u015f tankerlerde yakla\u015f\u0131k 127 milyon varil olarak tahmin edilen ham petrol rezervleri \u015feklinde bir tamponu var. Ancak bu, ablukan\u0131n \u0130ran’a zarar vermeyece\u011fi anlam\u0131na gelmez” dedi.
\nDeniz istihbarat ajans\u0131 Windward’a g\u00f6re, Pazartesi itibar\u0131yla suda bulunan toplam \u0130ran petrol\u00fc yakla\u015f\u0131k 157.7 milyon varildi. Bunun y\u00fczde 97.6’s\u0131 \u00c7in’e gidiyordu.
\nWindward, bu petrol\u00fcn tamam\u0131n\u0131n ABD ablukas\u0131ndan etkilenebilece\u011fi konusunda uyard\u0131.
\nDi\u011fer mallar\u0131n ticareti etkilenecek mi?
\nPetrol\u00fcn yan\u0131 s\u0131ra, ABD’nin \u0130ran limanlar\u0131na uygulad\u0131\u011f\u0131 abluka, Tahran’\u0131n di\u011fer mallarla ticaretini de etkileyebilir.
\nLimanlar\u0131 \u00fczerinden sevk edilen baz\u0131 \u00f6nemli ihracat \u00fcr\u00fcnleri aras\u0131nda petrokimyasallar, plastikler ve ba\u015fta \u00c7in ve Hindistan gibi \u00fclkelere giden tar\u0131m \u00fcr\u00fcnleri bulunurken; ba\u015fl\u0131ca ithalat \u00fcr\u00fcnleri ise end\u00fcstriyel makineler, elektronik ve g\u0131da olup, bunlar a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olarak \u00c7in, Birle\u015fik Arap Emirlikleri ve T\u00fcrkiye’den temin ediliyor.
\nTehran Times’\u0131n 18 \u015eubat tarihli bir raporuna g\u00f6re, \u0130ran G\u00fcmr\u00fck \u0130daresi taraf\u0131ndan yay\u0131mlanan veriler, \u00fclkenin toplam petrol d\u0131\u015f\u0131 ticaretinin 21 Mart 2025’ten 20 Ocak’a kadar 94 milyar dolara ula\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve ithalat\u0131n ihracat\u0131 geride b\u0131rakarak bir ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131na yol a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi.
\nAnalistler, mevcut ablukan\u0131n \u0130ran’\u0131n genel ticaretini etkileyece\u011fini ve ekonomisine zarar verece\u011fini belirtti.
\nSchneider, hidrokarbon d\u0131\u015f\u0131 ticaretin aksamas\u0131 durumunda, bunun sadece gelirlere de\u011fil, ayn\u0131 zamanda tedariklere de darbe vuraca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve sava\u015f \u00f6ncesi yapt\u0131r\u0131mlardan zaten b\u00fcy\u00fck bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda olan bir ekonomide artan i\u00e7 k\u0131tl\u0131klara yol a\u00e7aca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi.
\n“Soru \u015fu olacak: Bu artan ac\u0131, \u0130ran’\u0131 yenilgiyi kabul etmeye mi zorlayacak, yoksa kararl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131p durumu t\u0131rmand\u0131racak m\u0131? Ancak bu ablukan\u0131n tam olarak y\u00fcr\u00fcrl\u00fc\u011fe girece\u011finden veya \u00e7ok uzun s\u00fcrece\u011finden \u015f\u00fcpheliyim” dedi.
\n\u0130ran’\u0131n ke\u015ffedebilece\u011fi alternatif rotalar var m\u0131?
\nEvet. K\u00fcresel ticaret i\u00e7in hayati \u00f6neme sahip olan K\u00f6rfez’deki H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 ve G\u00fcneydo\u011fu Asya’daki Malakka Bo\u011faz\u0131 gibi bo\u011fazlara olan ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 azaltmak i\u00e7in \u0130ran ve \u00c7in bir demiryolu hatt\u0131 geli\u015ftirdi.
\nKazakistan, \u00d6zbekistan ve T\u00fcrkmenistan gibi Orta Asya \u00fclkelerindeki mevcut demiryolu hatlar\u0131n\u0131 kullanarak, \u00c7in’den ticari mal ta\u015f\u0131yan bir y\u00fck treni ilk olarak \u015eubat 2016’da \u0130ran’a ula\u015ft\u0131. Ard\u0131ndan May\u0131s ay\u0131nda, \u0130ran’\u0131n Tasnim haber ajans\u0131na g\u00f6re, \u00c7in’in Xi’an kentinden gelen ilk y\u00fck treni \u0130ran’daki Aprin kuru liman\u0131na vararak, \u0130ran ile \u00c7in aras\u0131nda do\u011frudan demiryolu ba\u011flant\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n resmi a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 i\u015faret etti.
\nJeopolitik dan\u0131\u015fmanl\u0131k ajans\u0131 SpecialEurasia’n\u0131n bir raporuna g\u00f6re, \u00c7in-\u0130ran demiryolu “Bat\u0131l\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lerin \u0130ran ticaretini, \u00f6zellikle de Tahran’\u0131n ‘hayalet gemileri’ olarak adland\u0131r\u0131lan gemilerle ham petrol ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 engelleyen deniz engelleme risklerini azaltmaya yard\u0131mc\u0131 oluyor.”
\n“Karanl\u0131k gemiler” veya “hayalet gemiler”, tespit edilmekten ka\u00e7\u0131nmak ve yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 a\u015fmak i\u00e7in otomatik tan\u0131mlama sistemlerini kapatarak faaliyet g\u00f6sterir. \u0130ran’a y\u00f6nelik sava\u015f boyunca, denizcilik verileri petrol ve di\u011fer mallar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131yan bu t\u00fcr gemilerin varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tespit etti.
\nSpecialEurasia raporu, “Bununla birlikte, hidrokarbonlar\u0131n demiryolu ile ta\u015f\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nemli lojistik zorluklar i\u00e7erdi\u011fini belirtmek \u00f6nemlidir” diye ekledi.
\n\u015eu anda \u0130ran’dan \u00c7in’e demiryoluyla petrol ta\u015f\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair g\u00fcvenilir bir kan\u0131t bulunmamaktad\u0131r.
\nSchneider, ablukan\u0131n devam etmesi halinde \u0130ran ekonomisine kesinlikle zarar verece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Ancak, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00fczerindeki bu \u00e7\u0131kmaz\u0131n ne kadar s\u00fcrece\u011finin de belirsiz oldu\u011funu ekledi.
\n“ABD’nin bu abluka konusunda ne kadar ciddi oldu\u011funu, ne kadar s\u00fcrece\u011fini, nas\u0131l sona erece\u011fini ve s\u0131rada ne oldu\u011funu s\u00f6ylemek \u00e7ok zor” dedi.
\nBir de X fakt\u00f6r\u00fc var: \u00c7in.
\nSchneider, “\u0130ran tankerlerinin \u00e7o\u011fu \u00c7in’e gidiyor ve \u00c7in’in bu ablukaya boyun e\u011fece\u011fini sanm\u0131yorum” dedi. “\u0130kinci olarak, ABD Donanmas\u0131’n\u0131n bu gemilere el koyaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131, hatta bat\u0131raca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 da d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnm\u00fcyorum.”
\n“Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla bu, h\u0131zla bir y\u00f6ne, yani ate\u015fkes ve gerilimin azalmas\u0131na ya da di\u011fer y\u00f6ne, yani t\u0131rman\u0131\u015fa ve bombalama ve f\u00fcze sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n yeniden ba\u015flamas\u0131na do\u011fru sapabilecek \u00e7ok de\u011fi\u015fken bir durum” diye ekledi.
\n#\u0130ran #ABD #H\u00fcrm\u00fczBo\u011faz\u0131 #PetrolAblukas\u0131 #Ekonomi #DenizTicaret #Yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar #\u00c7in #Jeopolitik #Ortado\u011fu<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump y\u00f6netiminin \u0130ran ekonomisini s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131rarak Tahran’\u0131 sava\u015f\u0131n sona ermesi i\u00e7in kendi \u015fartlar\u0131n\u0131 kabul etmeye zorlamas\u0131yla birlikte, ABD’nin \u0130ran’a y\u00f6nelik deniz ablukas\u0131 y\u00fcr\u00fcrl\u00fc\u011fe girdi. Abluka Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc GMT ile 14:00’te ba\u015flad\u0131. \u0130ran silahl\u0131 kuvvetleri bunu “yasa d\u0131\u015f\u0131 bir eylem” ve “korsanl\u0131k” olarak nitelendirdi. Analistler, \u0130ran’\u0131n ABD yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131na al\u0131\u015fk\u0131n olmas\u0131na ve sava\u015f s\u0131ras\u0131nda i\u015flevini […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":537,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[24],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-536","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-iran_haberler"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/536","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=536"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/536\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/537"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=536"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=536"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=536"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}