Hi\u00e7bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131, bir petrol tankerini H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131’ndan ge\u00e7meye zorlayamaz veya “tehlikeli may\u0131nl\u0131 alan\u0131” temizleyemez.<\/p>\n
\u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131, son toplant\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n tutanaklar\u0131nda ve yeni verilerinde, b\u00fcy\u00fck resmin -en az\u0131ndan Britanya’da- kimsenin kontrol\u00fcnde olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 defalarca vurgulad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Ancak, faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131 sabit tutma karar\u0131 etraf\u0131ndaki m\u00fczakerelerde ve tahminlerde \u00f6nemli bir mesaj vard\u0131.<\/p>\n
Faiz indirimleri kesinlikle g\u00fcndemden kalkt\u0131<\/b>, bir t\u00fcr faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131kla ger\u00e7ekle\u015fecek<\/b> ve e\u011fer petrol fiyatlar\u0131 Per\u015fembe sabahki 125 dolarl\u0131k zirvede y\u0131l\u0131n geri kalan\u0131nda da devam ederse, faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131n bu y\u0131l %5’in \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 gerekebilir<\/b>.<\/p>\n
Esasen Banka, K\u00f6rfez’deki \u00e7\u0131kmaz\u0131n birka\u00e7 ay s\u00fcrmesi halinde hangi sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n olas\u0131 oldu\u011funa dair beklentileri y\u00f6netmek i\u00e7in baz\u0131 “e\u011ferler” ve “belkiler” hakk\u0131nda ayr\u0131nt\u0131 vermeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yordu.<\/p>\n
Ate\u015fkesin ilan\u0131ndan sonra petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki son keskin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, birka\u00e7 g\u00fcn veya hafta i\u00e7inde bir t\u00fcr normale d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f varsay\u0131m\u0131na dayan\u0131yordu.<\/p>\n
Benzin pompalar\u0131nda zaten s\u0131k\u0131\u015fan, yaz aylar\u0131nda gaz ve elektrik fiyatlar\u0131nda art\u0131\u015fla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kalan, g\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131 da y\u00fckselen haneler, konut kredisi maliyetlerindeki \u00f6nemli bir art\u0131\u015f<\/b> hakk\u0131nda ne d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmeli?<\/p>\n
Bu soruyu \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131 Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Andrew Bailey’ye sordum.<\/p>\n
\u015e\u00f6yle yan\u0131tlad\u0131: “Bunlar \u00e7ok zorlu ko\u015fullar. Bu, enerji fiyatlar\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fck bir art\u0131\u015f. Bunda \u015f\u00fcphe yok.”<\/p>\n
“Bu anlamda \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck bir \u015fok ve elbette haneler taraf\u0131ndan hissediliyor.”<\/p>\n
“Enflasyon herkes i\u00e7in k\u00f6t\u00fc, ancak \u00f6zellikle en az varl\u0131kl\u0131 olanlar i\u00e7in daha k\u00f6t\u00fc<\/b>. Enerji ve g\u0131da gibi kalemler, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck gelirli ki\u015filerin harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7ok daha b\u00fcy\u00fck bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc olu\u015fturuyor ve bu nedenle buna \u00e7ok, \u00e7ok duyarl\u0131 olmal\u0131y\u0131z.”<\/p>\n
“Yani bu zor bir durum. Bizim i\u015fimiz, bu durumdan ge\u00e7ebilece\u011fimiz en iyi yolu \u00e7izmek.”
\n
Ba\u015fkan, geni\u015f bir belirsizlik alan\u0131n\u0131n yan\u0131 s\u0131ra \u00e7e\u015fitli g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fleri de y\u00f6netiyor.<\/p>\n
Per\u015fembe sabah\u0131ndan \u00f6\u011fleden sonraya kadar petrol fiyat\u0131n\u0131n varil ba\u015f\u0131na 10 dolar hareket etti\u011fine dikkat \u00e7ekti.<\/p>\n
Enerji fiyatlar\u0131nda ani ve s\u00fcrekli d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flerin oldu\u011fu en iyi senaryoda, ba\u015fkan faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131ndan ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131labilece\u011fini s\u00f6ylese de, piyasalar ablukalar\u0131n devam edece\u011fi varsay\u0131m\u0131yla Haziran veya Temmuz aylar\u0131nda bir art\u0131\u015f bekliyor.<\/p>\n
Her hal\u00fckarda, piyasalar Merkez Bankas\u0131’n\u0131 beklemeden uzun vadeli faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131 yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekiyor.<\/p>\n
Bu durum, Banka’n\u0131n ayl\u0131k \u00f6demelerde ortalama 80 sterlinlik bir art\u0131\u015fa<\/b> yol a\u00e7mas\u0131n\u0131 bekledi\u011fi sabit vadeli konut kredisi oranlar\u0131nda zaten g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Konut kredisi olan hanelerin yar\u0131s\u0131ndan fazlas\u0131 sabit oranlardan \u00e7\u0131kacak ve \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131l i\u00e7inde daha y\u00fcksek ayl\u0131k \u00f6demelerle kar\u015f\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131 bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
Bu durum h\u00fck\u00fcmet i\u00e7in de bir ba\u015f a\u011fr\u0131s\u0131ndan fazlas\u0131. Kriz nedeniyle d\u00fcnya genelinde etkin h\u00fck\u00fcmet bor\u00e7lanma oranlar\u0131 y\u00fckseliyor<\/b>. Ve Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k oranlar\u0131, di\u011fer baz\u0131 G7 \u00fclkelerinden daha de\u011fi\u015fken oldu<\/b>.<\/p>\n
Ba\u015fkana Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k’\u0131n \u00f6zel bir sorunu olup olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 sordum. Sterlin’in g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn bu meselenin Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k ile ilgili olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
“Her \u015fey \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmayla ilgili<\/b>,” dedi. “Ger\u00e7ekten de hem \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmadaki fiili geli\u015fmelerden hem de \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma hakk\u0131nda s\u00f6ylenenlerden kaynaklan\u0131yor.”
\n
“Bence Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k ‘primi’ ilgin\u00e7. D\u00f6viz kuru hi\u00e7 hareket etmiyor.”
\n
“Bu, de\u011ferlendirme yaparken bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m bir \u015fey: ‘Burada \u00f6zel bir Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k hikayesi var m\u0131? Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k di\u011fer \u00fclkelerden bir \u015fekilde farkl\u0131 m\u0131?'”
\n
“D\u00f6viz kuru, deneyimlerime g\u00f6re, asl\u0131nda bunun i\u00e7in hi\u00e7 de k\u00f6t\u00fc bir g\u00f6sterge de\u011fil ve pek hareket etmedi. Asl\u0131nda Brexit’ten bu yana i\u00e7inde bulundu\u011fu band\u0131n \u00fcst s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor.”
\n
Ekonominin ilk \u00e7eyrekte diren\u00e7 g\u00f6sterdi\u011fine dair baz\u0131 i\u015faretler var. Ancak \u015fimdi, olabilecekler hakk\u0131nda h\u00fcz\u00fcnl\u00fc bir bak\u0131\u015f atmak i\u00e7in zaman yok.<\/p>\n
K\u00f6rfez’deki durumun yak\u0131nda \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclece\u011fine dair hala bir umut var. Merkez Bankas\u0131’ndan gelen mesaj ise, hanelerin ve i\u015fletmelerin durumun birka\u00e7 ay s\u00fcrmesi halinde ne olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ak\u0131llar\u0131nda tutmalar\u0131 gerekti\u011fidir<\/b>.<\/p>\n
#Birle\u015fikKrall\u0131kEkonomisi #MerkezBankas\u0131 #FaizOranlar\u0131 #Enflasyon #PetrolFiyatlar\u0131 #EnerjiKrizi #KonutKredileri #K\u00fcreselBelirsizlik #H\u00fcrm\u00fczBo\u011faz\u0131 #EkonomikG\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Hi\u00e7bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131, bir petrol tankerini H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131’ndan ge\u00e7meye zorlayamaz veya “tehlikeli may\u0131nl\u0131 alan\u0131” temizleyemez. \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131, son toplant\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n tutanaklar\u0131nda ve yeni verilerinde, b\u00fcy\u00fck resmin -en az\u0131ndan Britanya’da- kimsenin kontrol\u00fcnde olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 defalarca vurgulad\u0131. Ancak, faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131 sabit tutma karar\u0131 etraf\u0131ndaki m\u00fczakerelerde ve tahminlerde \u00f6nemli bir mesaj vard\u0131. Faiz indirimleri kesinlikle g\u00fcndemden kalkt\u0131, bir t\u00fcr […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":5609,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[40],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5608","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-dunya-haberleri"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5608","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=5608"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5608\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/5609"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=5608"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=5608"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=5608"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}