Uluslararas\u0131 Para Fonu (IMF), ABD ile \u0130ran aras\u0131ndaki gerilimin k\u00fcresel enerji ve g\u0131da maliyetlerini art\u0131rmas\u0131yla k\u00fcresel ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminini a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekti.<\/p>\n
IMF Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamada, k\u00fcresel ekonominin bu y\u0131l y\u00fczde 3,1 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesini bekledi\u011fini belirtti. Bu oran, ABD ve \u0130srail’in 28 \u015eubat’ta \u0130ran’a kar\u015f\u0131 sava\u015fa ba\u015flamas\u0131ndan \u00f6nce yay\u0131mlanan y\u00fczde 3,3’l\u00fck \u00f6nceki tahmine g\u00f6re bir yava\u015flamay\u0131 temsil ediyor.<\/p>\n
O zamandan beri \u0130ran, petrol ve gaz tedarikleri i\u00e7in kritik bir ge\u00e7i\u015f noktas\u0131 olan H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131’n\u0131 kapatarak ve b\u00f6lgedeki enerji altyap\u0131s\u0131na sald\u0131rarak misilleme yapt\u0131. Bu geli\u015fmeler, petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fckseltti ve petrol ile gaz tedarikini s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131ya sokarak, bu ithalatlara en \u00e7ok ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 \u00fclkeleri \u00f6zellikle sert vurdu.<\/p>\n
Yeni rapor ayr\u0131ca, ekonominin y\u00fczde 3,4 b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc ge\u00e7en y\u0131la g\u00f6re de bir yava\u015flamaya i\u015faret ediyor. IMF, baz\u0131 b\u00f6lgelerin ve \u00fclkelerin di\u011ferlerinden daha sert etkilenece\u011fini vurgulad\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u00d6rne\u011fin, \u0130ran’\u0131n g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc \u00fclke d\u00fczeyindeki en b\u00fcy\u00fck revizyonlardan birini g\u00f6rd\u00fc; 2026 i\u00e7in ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7ta \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahmini 7,2 puan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fclerek y\u00fczde 6,1’lik bir daralma tahminiyle sonu\u00e7land\u0131.<\/p>\n
IMF ayr\u0131ca Suudi Arabistan i\u00e7in GSY\u0130H b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminlerini y\u00fczde 4,5’ten y\u00fczde 3,1’e d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc.<\/p>\n
IMF, D\u00fcnya Ekonomik G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc raporunda, “Orta Do\u011fu’daki mevcut d\u00fc\u015fmanl\u0131klar, enflasyonla m\u00fccadele ile b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi koruma ve artan ya\u015fam maliyetinden etkilenenleri destekleme ile mali tamponlar\u0131 yeniden in\u015fa etme aras\u0131nda acil politika ikilemleri yarat\u0131yor” dedi.<\/p>\n
Ba\u015f Ekonomist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas bir a\u00e7\u0131klamada, “Bu durum \u00fclkeler aras\u0131nda son derece dengesiz olacak; \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma b\u00f6lgesindeki \u00fclkeleri, emtia ithal eden d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck gelirli \u00fclkeleri ve geli\u015fmekte olan piyasa ekonomilerini en sert \u015fekilde vuracak” ifadelerini kulland\u0131.<\/p>\n
Orta Do\u011fu ve Kuzey Afrika i\u00e7in 2026 b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahmini 2,8 puan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fclerek y\u00fczde 1,1’e \u00e7ekildi. IMF, Orta Do\u011fu ve Orta Asya i\u00e7in 2026 tahminini 2 puan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrerek y\u00fczde 1,9’a indirdi.<\/p>\n
Bu arada, Euro b\u00f6lgesinde b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin bu y\u0131l y\u00fczde 1,4’ten y\u00fczde 1,1’e yava\u015flamas\u0131 ve Ocak ay\u0131nda tahmin edilen y\u00fczde 1,3’\u00fcn alt\u0131nda kalmas\u0131 bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
D\u00fc\u015f\u00fck tahminler, petrol, gaz ve g\u00fcbre maliyetlerinin artmas\u0131 ve d\u00fcnya petrol ve s\u0131v\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f do\u011fal gaz tedarikinin yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 20’sinin ge\u00e7ti\u011fi H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131’ndaki trafi\u011fin yava\u015flamas\u0131yla birlikte yay\u0131mland\u0131.<\/p>\n
Boston College’da strateji, inovasyon ve teknoloji alan\u0131nda dekan yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 Aleksandar Tomic, Al Jazeera’ye yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamada, “Bu, bildi\u011fimiz bir \u015feyin daha teyidi: Orta Do\u011fu’daki sava\u015f, k\u0131sa vadede b\u00fcy\u00fcme y\u00f6r\u00fcngesini de\u011fi\u015ftiriyor ve e\u011fer geni\u015flerse, uzun vadede de de\u011fi\u015ftirebilir” dedi.<\/p>\n
**Enflasyonist Bask\u0131lar**<\/p>\n
IMF, k\u00fcresel enflasyonun y\u00fczde 4,4’e y\u00fckselmesini bekledi\u011fini, bunun Ocak ay\u0131ndaki tahmininden 0,6 puan daha y\u00fcksek oldu\u011funu belirtti.<\/p>\n
Gourinchas, fonun, geli\u015fmekte olan piyasalarda daha s\u0131k\u0131 finansal ko\u015fullar i\u00e7in tipik bir iletim kanal\u0131 oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in, daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n geli\u015fmekte olan ekonomilerdeki enflasyon \u00fczerindeki etkisini izledi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
IMF, ABD’nin bu y\u0131lki b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc Ocak ay\u0131na g\u00f6re sadece onda bir puan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrerek y\u00fczde 2,3’e indirdi.<\/p>\n
Uzmanlar, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131’ndaki s\u00fcrekli gerilimlerin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylarda enflasyonist bask\u0131lar\u0131 k\u00f6t\u00fcle\u015ftirebilece\u011fini savundu.<\/p>\n
American University’de uluslararas\u0131 i\u015fletme profes\u00f6r\u00fc Babak Hafezi, Al Jazeera’ye verdi\u011fi deme\u00e7te, “Petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki her 10 dolarl\u0131k s\u00fcrekli art\u0131\u015f [varil ba\u015f\u0131na], GSY\u0130H b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinde yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 0,4’l\u00fck bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklemeliyiz. Bu da, ortalama fiyat\u0131n \u00fczerinde s\u00fcrekli 60 dolarl\u0131k bir art\u0131\u015f\u0131n ABD’yi kesinlikle resesyon b\u00f6lgesine sokaca\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na geliyor” dedi.<\/p>\n
G\u00fcnl\u00fck benzin fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 takip eden Amerikan Otomobil Birli\u011fi’ne g\u00f6re, ABD’de benzin fiyatlar\u0131 y\u00fckselmeye devam etti; bir galon (3,78 litre) ortalama fiyat\u0131, ABD ve \u0130srail’in \u0130ran’a sald\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 28 \u015eubat’taki 2,98 dolardan 4,11 dolara \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Ancak petrol fiyatlar\u0131 \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131lar hafifleyebilir. \u0130ran’\u0131n sava\u015f\u0131 sona erdirmek i\u00e7in ABD ile g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelere devam edece\u011fi umutlar\u0131yla petrol fiyatlar\u0131 Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Brent ham petrol vadeli i\u015flemleri y\u00fczde 4,37 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle varil ba\u015f\u0131na 95,02 dolara geriledi. Bat\u0131 Teksas ham petrol\u00fc ise 7,27 dolar veya y\u00fczde 7,32 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 91,84 dolara indi. Ancak bu fiyatlar, \u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131 \u00f6ncesi seviyelerden hala \u00e7ok daha y\u00fcksek.<\/p>\n
#IMFG\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fcmeTahmini #K\u00fcreselEkonomi #H\u00fcrm\u00fczBo\u011faz\u0131 #ABD\u0130ranGerilimi #PetrolFiyatlar\u0131 #Enflasyon #OrtaDo\u011fu\u00c7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 #EnerjiPiyasalar\u0131 #EkonomikB\u00fcy\u00fcme #JeopolitikRiskler<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Uluslararas\u0131 Para Fonu (IMF), ABD ile \u0130ran aras\u0131ndaki gerilimin k\u00fcresel enerji ve g\u0131da maliyetlerini art\u0131rmas\u0131yla k\u00fcresel ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminini a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekti. IMF Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamada, k\u00fcresel ekonominin bu y\u0131l y\u00fczde 3,1 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesini bekledi\u011fini belirtti. Bu oran, ABD ve \u0130srail’in 28 \u015eubat’ta \u0130ran’a kar\u015f\u0131 sava\u015fa ba\u015flamas\u0131ndan \u00f6nce yay\u0131mlanan y\u00fczde 3,3’l\u00fck \u00f6nceki tahmine g\u00f6re bir yava\u015flamay\u0131 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":593,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[28],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-592","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-orta-dogu-haberleri"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/592","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=592"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/592\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/593"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=592"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=592"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=592"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}