\u0130ran ile ABD aras\u0131ndaki y\u0131pratma sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131n t\u0131rman\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n son sembol\u00fc, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131’n\u0131n \u00f6tesine uzanan iki k\u0131rm\u0131z\u0131 \u00e7izginin yer ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 yeni bir harita oldu.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131 Ordusu (IRGC) Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc, Birle\u015fik Arap Emirlikleri (BAE) k\u0131y\u0131 \u015feridinin uzun b\u00f6l\u00fcmlerini de kapsayan geni\u015fletilmi\u015f bir deniz kontrol alan\u0131n\u0131 i\u015faretleyen bir harita yay\u0131nlad\u0131. Bat\u0131da, \u0130ran’\u0131n Ke\u015fm Adas\u0131’n\u0131n en bat\u0131 ucundan BAE’nin Umm el Kuvveyn emirli\u011fine uzanan bir \u00e7izgi bulunurken, do\u011fuda ise ikinci bir \u00e7izgi \u0130ran’\u0131n M\u00fcbarek Da\u011f\u0131 ile BAE’nin F\u00fcceyre’sini birbirine ba\u011fl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu a\u00e7\u0131klama, ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump’\u0131n hayati enerji ge\u00e7i\u015f noktas\u0131n\u0131 yeniden a\u00e7ma \u00e7abalar\u0131n\u0131 ba\u015flatmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan geldi. 28 \u015eubat’ta ABD-\u0130srail’in \u0130ran’a kar\u015f\u0131 sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015flamas\u0131ndan bu yana b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde kapal\u0131 olan bu bo\u011faz, \u201c\u00d6zg\u00fcrl\u00fck Projesi\u201d ad\u0131 verilen bir kampanya kapsam\u0131nda donanman\u0131n mahsur kalan tankerlere e\u015flik etmesiyle yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Gerilimin daha da artmas\u0131yla, BAE Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc insans\u0131z hava arac\u0131 ve f\u00fcze sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 bildirdi. F\u00fcceyre’deki b\u00fcy\u00fck bir enerji merkezinde yang\u0131na neden olan bu sald\u0131r\u0131lar, 8 Nisan’daki ABD-\u0130ran ate\u015fkesinden bu yana bir K\u00f6rfez \u00fclkesinde ya\u015fanan ilk olaylar oldu. BAE sald\u0131r\u0131lardan \u0130ran’\u0131 sorumlu tuttu. Tahran sald\u0131r\u0131y\u0131 resmi olarak do\u011frulamasa da, Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n arkas\u0131nda oldu\u011funu kabul ederken, ABD’yi ve b\u00f6lgedeki eylemlerini sorumlu tuttu.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran Meclis Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Muhammed Bak\u0131r Galibaf Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc sosyal medya payla\u015f\u0131m\u0131nda, \u201cMevcut durumun devam\u0131 Amerika Birle\u015fik Devletleri i\u00e7in dayan\u0131lmazd\u0131r, oysa biz daha ba\u015flamad\u0131k bile\u201d ifadelerini kulland\u0131.<\/p>\n
Ancak analistler, bu g\u00fcven g\u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn ard\u0131nda, \u0130ran’\u0131n ABD ve \u0130srail ile devam eden sava\u015f\u0131nda hayati bir kald\u0131ra\u00e7 olarak H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00fczerindeki kontrol\u00fcne giderek daha fazla ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 oldu\u011funu belirtiyor. Ate\u015fkesin sadece bir ara verdi\u011fi bu sava\u015fta, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz kontrol\u00fc \u0130ran i\u00e7in kritik \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131yor. Uzmanlar, bu kald\u0131ra\u00e7tan \u0130ran’\u0131n kolayca vazge\u00e7emeyece\u011fini vurguluyor.<\/p>\n
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131’ndaki deniz trafi\u011fini aksatarak \u2013 ki bu bo\u011faz k\u00fcresel deniz yoluyla petrol ticaretinin yakla\u015f\u0131k d\u00f6rtte biri ile \u00f6nemli miktarda s\u0131v\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f do\u011falgaz ve g\u00fcbre ge\u00e7i\u015fine ev sahipli\u011fi yap\u0131yor \u2013 \u0130ran, ABD’ye ve d\u00fcnyan\u0131n geri kalan\u0131na ekonomik maliyetler y\u00fckleyebiliyor. Uzmanlar, bunun \u0130ran’a, Washington’\u0131n Tahran’\u0131n n\u00fckleer program\u0131n\u0131 fiilen sona erdirmesi gibi taleplerine kar\u015f\u0131 koyarken m\u00fczakere g\u00fcc\u00fc sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtiyor.<\/p>\n
Bunun sonucunda ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan dalgalanma etkileri, enerji piyasalar\u0131n\u0131, deniz ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve k\u00fcresel tedarik zincirlerini etkiledi; tanker trafi\u011fi \u015eubat ay\u0131ndaki ortalama 129’dan neredeyse durma noktas\u0131na geldi.<\/p>\n
Marburg \u00dcniversitesi Yak\u0131n ve Orta Do\u011fu \u00c7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 Merkezi (CNMS) Orta Do\u011fu Ekonomisi Profes\u00f6r\u00fc Muhammed R\u0131za Farzanegan, \u0130ran’\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00fczerindeki kontrol\u00fcn\u00fc \u201cstratejik bir dengeleyici<\/strong>\u201d olarak tan\u0131mlad\u0131.<\/p>\n Hamburg \u0130leri Ara\u015ft\u0131rmalar Enstit\u00fcs\u00fc’nde (HIAS) ara\u015ft\u0131rma g\u00f6revlisi olarak da g\u00f6rev yapan Farzanegan, Al Jazeera’ye verdi\u011fi deme\u00e7te, \u201cBu, \u0130ran’a uygulanan bask\u0131n\u0131n sadece \u0130ran’la s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131n sinyalini vermesini sa\u011fl\u0131yor\u201d dedi.<\/p>\n Farzanegan s\u00f6zlerine \u015f\u00f6yle devam etti: \u201c\u0130ran, ABD’nin deniz ve hava g\u00fcc\u00fcne simetrik olarak kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k veremez, ancak co\u011frafya onun yan\u0131nda. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz dar, kalabal\u0131k ve ekonomik olarak hayati. B\u00f6yle bir alanda, \u0130ran’\u0131n maliyet dayatmak i\u00e7in b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7ekli bir \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmaya ihtiyac\u0131 yok. May\u0131nlar, f\u00fczeler, insans\u0131z hava ara\u00e7lar\u0131, h\u0131zl\u0131 botlar, elektronik bozulmalar ve se\u00e7ici hedefleme tehdidi, tam bir kapanma olmasa bile ge\u00e7i\u015fi riskli hale getirebilir.\u201d<\/p>\n Asl\u0131nda, \u0130ran’\u0131n sava\u015f\u0131n ekonomik hesab\u0131n\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirmek i\u00e7in ABD Donanmas\u0131’n\u0131 yenmesine gerek yok. Farzanegan, \u201cSadece sigortac\u0131lar\u0131n, nakliyecilerin ve enerji t\u00fcccarlar\u0131n\u0131n, \u0130ran \u00fczerindeki askeri bask\u0131n\u0131n k\u00fcresel piyasalar i\u00e7in maliyetler do\u011furaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 anlamalar\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flamas\u0131 yeterli. Bu belirsizlik tek ba\u015f\u0131na petrol ve LNG fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fckseltebilir, nakliye maliyetlerini art\u0131rabilir ve \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 enflasyona, g\u0131da g\u00fcvenli\u011fine ve finans piyasalar\u0131na ta\u015f\u0131yabilir\u201d diye ekledi.<\/p>\n \u0130ran’\u0131n petrol tankerlerini veya LNG ta\u015f\u0131y\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 cayd\u0131rmak i\u00e7in temel gereksinimi, neredeyse her t\u00fcrl\u00fc patlay\u0131c\u0131 mermi ile sa\u011flanabilir. \u00c7at\u0131\u015fma boyunca \u0130ran, tek y\u00f6nl\u00fc sald\u0131r\u0131 dronlar\u0131, gemisavar seyir f\u00fczeleriyle donat\u0131lm\u0131\u015f h\u0131zl\u0131 sald\u0131r\u0131 botlar\u0131, roketatarlar ve hatta yeralt\u0131 k\u0131y\u0131 tesislerinden f\u0131rlat\u0131labilecek tanksavar g\u00fcd\u00fcml\u00fc f\u00fczeler de dahil olmak \u00fczere geli\u015fmi\u015f bir cephaneli\u011fe sahip oldu\u011funu g\u00f6stermi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n Ancak \u0130ran’\u0131n bu aksakl\u0131klar\u0131 y\u00fcksek bir maliyetle geliyor. ABD, 13 Nisan’dan bu yana t\u00fcm \u0130ran limanlar\u0131na ve gemilerine deniz ablukas\u0131 uygulayarak, \u0130ran’\u0131n petrol ihra\u00e7 etme, temel mallar\u0131 ithal etme ve d\u00f6viz giri\u015flerini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrme yetene\u011fini s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131. Fiyatlar f\u0131rlad\u0131 ve Tahran’daki yetkililer taraf\u0131ndan uygulanan neredeyse tam bir internet kesintisi ortas\u0131nda milyonlarca i\u015f kaybedildi veya ask\u0131ya al\u0131nd\u0131.<\/p>\n Farzanegan, \u201cH\u00fcrm\u00fcz, bu a\u015famada muhtemelen \u0130ran’\u0131n kilit kald\u0131ra\u00e7 noktas\u0131d\u0131r, ancak tehlikeli bir varl\u0131kt\u0131r. Tamamen kullan\u0131lmas\u0131 herkese zarar verece\u011fi i\u00e7in \u0130ran’a tam da bu nedenle pazarl\u0131k g\u00fcc\u00fc veriyor\u201d dedi.<\/p>\n ABD ile \u0130ran aras\u0131ndaki k\u0131r\u0131lgan ate\u015fkes, Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc BAE’nin \u0130ran’\u0131 \u00fclkenin F\u00fcceyre petrol rafinerisine sald\u0131rmakla su\u00e7lamas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan gerginle\u015fti. F\u00fcceyre rafinerisi, g\u00fcnl\u00fck 1.7 milyon varilden fazla ham petrol ve rafine yak\u0131t ihra\u00e7 ederek d\u00fcnya g\u00fcnl\u00fck talebinin yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 1.7’sini kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n Pazartesi g\u00fcnk\u00fc sald\u0131r\u0131, ABD ordusunun iki ABD ticaret gemisinin Donanma g\u00fcd\u00fcml\u00fc f\u00fcze destroyerlerinin deste\u011fiyle bo\u011fazdan ge\u00e7ti\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan geldi. \u0130ran bu ge\u00e7i\u015fleri reddederken, nakliye \u015firketi Maersk, ABD bayrakl\u0131 Alliance Fairfax’\u0131n ABD askeri eskortu alt\u0131nda K\u00f6rfez’den \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 do\u011frulad\u0131.<\/p>\n Ek olarak, ABD ordusu b\u00f6lgedeki g\u00fc\u00e7lerinin alt\u0131 k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck \u0130ran botunu imha etti\u011fini iddia etti; Tahran bunu reddetti ve ABD’nin \u0130ran gemilerine yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 sald\u0131r\u0131larda be\u015f sivili \u00f6ld\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc iddia etti.<\/p>\n Doha Lisans\u00fcst\u00fc \u00c7al\u0131\u015fmalar Enstit\u00fcs\u00fc Uluslararas\u0131 Politika ve G\u00fcvenlik Yard\u0131mc\u0131 Profes\u00f6r\u00fc Muhanad Seloom, F\u00fcceyre sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n, \u0130ran’\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131’nda do\u011frudan ABD ticaret gemilerine sald\u0131rmas\u0131na gerek olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, k\u00fcresel piyasalar \u00fczerinde ekonomik bask\u0131y\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmek i\u00e7in K\u00f6rfez \u00fclkelerini de vurabilece\u011fini hat\u0131rlatt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti.<\/p>\n Seloom, Al Jazeera’ye verdi\u011fi deme\u00e7te, \u201c[\u0130ran], K\u00f6rfez \u0130\u015fbirli\u011fi Konseyi (K\u0130K) \u00fclkelerine (Suudi Arabistan, BAE, Katar, Kuveyt, Umman ve Bahreyn) ‘e\u011fer ABD bize sald\u0131r\u0131rsa, t\u00fcm altyap\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 yok ederiz’ ve ekonomik bir \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015fe neden oluruz demeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor\u201d ifadelerini kulland\u0131.<\/p>\n Sava\u015f boyunca, b\u00f6lgedeki yedi Arap \u00fclkesine en az 6.413 f\u00fcze ve insans\u0131z hava arac\u0131 f\u0131rlat\u0131ld\u0131, bunlar\u0131n \u00e7o\u011fu BAE’yi hedef ald\u0131. Abu Dabi, 2020’deki \u0130brahim Anla\u015fmalar\u0131 arac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131yla ili\u015fkileri normalle\u015ftirdikten sonra, ABD’nin \u0130ran’a kar\u015f\u0131 sava\u015f\u0131ndaki m\u00fcttefiki \u0130srail ile stratejik ortakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 derinle\u015ftirdi. BAE ayr\u0131ca ge\u00e7en ay fiilen Suudi Arabistan liderli\u011findeki OPEC ve OPEC+ petrol kartellerinden ayr\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n Seloom’a g\u00f6re, \u0130ran bu b\u00f6lgesel dinami\u011fi kullan\u0131yor. Seloom, \u201c\u015eimdi daha b\u00fcy\u00fck soru, bunun K\u0130K \u00fclkeleri i\u00e7in ne anlama geldi\u011fi ve stratejik sab\u0131rlar\u0131n\u0131 ne kadar s\u00fcrd\u00fcrecekleri?\u201d diye sordu ve \u201cBir noktada, bunu varolu\u015fsal bir tehdit olarak g\u00f6rebilirler\u201d uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu.<\/p>\n #H\u00fcrm\u00fczBo\u011faz\u0131 #\u0130ran #ABD #BAE #Ortado\u011fu #Jeopolitik #EnerjiG\u00fcvenli\u011fi #PetrolPiyasalar\u0131 #DevrimMuhaf\u0131zlar\u0131 #K\u00f6rfezGerilimi<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" \u0130ran ile ABD aras\u0131ndaki y\u0131pratma sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131n t\u0131rman\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n son sembol\u00fc, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131’n\u0131n \u00f6tesine uzanan iki k\u0131rm\u0131z\u0131 \u00e7izginin yer ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 yeni bir harita oldu. \u0130ran Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131 Ordusu (IRGC) Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc, Birle\u015fik Arap Emirlikleri (BAE) k\u0131y\u0131 \u015feridinin uzun b\u00f6l\u00fcmlerini de kapsayan geni\u015fletilmi\u015f bir deniz kontrol alan\u0131n\u0131 i\u015faretleyen bir harita yay\u0131nlad\u0131. Bat\u0131da, \u0130ran’\u0131n Ke\u015fm Adas\u0131’n\u0131n en bat\u0131 ucundan […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":6980,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[28],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6979","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-orta-dogu-haberleri"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6979","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=6979"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6979\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/6980"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=6979"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=6979"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=6979"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}B\u00f6lgesel G\u00fc\u00e7 Dengesi ve Gerilimler<\/h3>\n