Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz alt\u0131 haftan\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnde, size t\u0131kanm\u0131\u015f H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131’n\u0131n haritalar\u0131n\u0131 sunduk. Yakla\u015f\u0131k 800 geminin K\u00f6rfez’de mahsur kald\u0131\u011f\u0131na inan\u0131l\u0131yor; bunlar\u0131n \u00e7o\u011fu petrol ve gaz ta\u015f\u0131yor ve a\u00e7\u0131k denizlere \u00e7\u0131kmakta isteksiz veya yetersiz kal\u0131yorlard\u0131. Bu s\u00fcre zarf\u0131nda, d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck trafik s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan y\u00fckselen benzin ve dizel fiyatlar\u0131na, artan u\u00e7ak biletlerine ve d\u00fcnya genelinde \u015fi\u015fen konut kredisi faiz oranlar\u0131na do\u011frudan bir ba\u011flant\u0131 olu\u015ftu. Bir\u00e7ok \u00fclke, b\u00f6lgedeki rafinerilerde \u00fcretilen di\u011fer petrokimyasal \u00fcr\u00fcnlerin \u00f6nemli tedarikleri i\u00e7in de bu sulara ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131. Bunlar aras\u0131nda jet yak\u0131t\u0131, dizel, g\u00fcbre bile\u015fenleri ve mikro\u00e7ip \u00fcretimi i\u00e7in hayati \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131yan helyum gibi end\u00fcstriyel \u00fcr\u00fcnler bulunuyor.<\/p>\n
\u0130yi haber \u015fu ki, gece boyunca s\u00fcren ate\u015fkes, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n daha fazla t\u0131rmanmas\u0131n\u0131 durduruyor ve gerilimi azaltma ile bar\u0131\u015f i\u00e7in bir yol sunuyor. Bu nedenle piyasalar, petrol ve gaz piyasa fiyatlar\u0131nda %15’lik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler ve borsalarda bir ralli ile olumlu tepki verdi. Ancak, bu hassas anda ekonomik etkiler konusunda dikkatli olmak i\u00e7in bir\u00e7ok neden var. \u0130ran, ABD ve \u0130srail’den m\u00fczakerelerin temeline ili\u015fkin farkl\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamalar geliyor. Bunun testi, y\u00fcz y\u00fcze m\u00fczakerelerin ger\u00e7ekten ger\u00e7ekle\u015fip ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmeyece\u011fidir.<\/p>\n
Ard\u0131ndan Bo\u011faz’daki fiziksel durum var. ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump’\u0131n \u00f6nerdi\u011fi gibi trafik serbest\u00e7e akacak m\u0131? Yoksa \u0130ran D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakan\u0131’n\u0131n \u00f6nerdi\u011fi gibi “\u0130ran Silahl\u0131 Kuvvetleri ile koordinasyon ve teknik s\u0131n\u0131rlamalar dikkate al\u0131narak” m\u0131 akacak? Bu sadece petrol ve gaz i\u00e7in de\u011fil, ayn\u0131 zamanda jet yak\u0131t\u0131, k\u00fck\u00fcrt, \u00fcre ve dizel i\u00e7in de hayati \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131yor. Ate\u015fkes ne kadar uzun s\u00fcrerse, enflasyondaki herhangi bir y\u00fckseli\u015fin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylarda azalmas\u0131 o kadar olas\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Ayn\u0131 zamanda herhangi bir bar\u0131\u015f hakk\u0131nda temel bir soru ortaya \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor. \u0130ran \u015fimdi K\u00f6rfez’de yeni bir ger\u00e7eklik yaratt\u0131. Bir donanmas\u0131 ve hava kuvveti olmasa bile kilit deniz ge\u00e7i\u015f noktas\u0131n\u0131 kontrol edebilece\u011fini kan\u0131tlad\u0131. Hatta ge\u00e7i\u015f \u00fccreti toplamaya bile ba\u015flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu durum devam edecek mi? K\u00f6rfez \u00fclkeleri bunu kabul edecek mi? \u0130ran’\u0131n \u015fimdi Bo\u011faz’\u0131n kontrol\u00fcn\u00fc Umman ile ortakla\u015fa koordine edece\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki \u00f6nerisi ola\u011fan\u00fcst\u00fc. Sava\u015f, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131’n\u0131 bir\u00e7ok geminin milyon dolarl\u0131k ge\u00e7i\u015f \u00fccretleri \u00f6dedi\u011fi d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en kazan\u00e7l\u0131 gi\u015fesine mi d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcrd\u00fc? A\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7as\u0131, bunlar\u0131n hi\u00e7biri sava\u015ftan \u00f6nce s\u00f6z konusu de\u011fildi.<\/p>\n
Altyap\u0131ya, \u00e7o\u011funlukla Katar’daki altyap\u0131ya verilen do\u011frudan hasar nedeniyle k\u00fcresel gaz \u00fcretiminin birka\u00e7 y\u0131l boyunca zarar g\u00f6rmesi muhtemel. \u00dcretimi yeniden ba\u015flatmak haftalar, bu \u00fcretimin sava\u015f \u00f6ncesi kapasitesine d\u00f6nmesi ise y\u0131llar alacak. Avrupa do\u011fal gaz stoklar\u0131n\u0131 yeniden doldurmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131rken, faturalardaki art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 kontrol alt\u0131na almak i\u00e7in K\u00f6rfez’den yaz aylar\u0131na kadar s\u00fcrekli bir s\u0131v\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f do\u011fal gaz (LNG) tankeri ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 olmas\u0131 gerekecek. Temmuz ay\u0131nda Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k’taki hane halk\u0131 enerji faturalar\u0131nda m\u00fctevaz\u0131 bir art\u0131\u015f neredeyse kesin olsa da, Ekim ay\u0131nda korkulan \u00f6nemli ek art\u0131\u015f \u015fimdi ortadan kalkabilir. S\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcl\u00fcrse, enflasyondaki daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bir y\u00fckseli\u015f de faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131n\u0131 engellemeye yard\u0131mc\u0131 olacakt\u0131r. Piyasalar, \u0130ngiltere dahil Avrupa h\u00fck\u00fcmetlerinin \u00f6dedi\u011fi etkin faiz oranlar\u0131nda \u00f6nemli bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Be\u015f y\u0131ll\u0131k devlet tahvili faizi, \u00e7eyrek puanl\u0131k bir faiz indirimi e\u015fde\u011feri kadar d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Bu ate\u015fkes, sabit konut kredisi faiz oranlar\u0131ndaki belirgin y\u00fckseli\u015fi durdurmaya yard\u0131mc\u0131 olacak. S\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcl\u00fcrse, konut kredisi faiz oranlar\u0131 burada ve d\u00fcnya genelinde tekrar d\u00fc\u015fmeye ba\u015flayacak.<\/p>\n
Bu sava\u015f\u0131n ekonomisi her zaman merkezi bir fakt\u00f6r olmu\u015ftur, bir yan \u00fcr\u00fcn de\u011fil. \u0130ranl\u0131lar bu Bo\u011faz’da k\u00fcresel bir ekonomik kald\u0131ra\u00e7 bi\u00e7imi olu\u015fturdu ve bunun kullan\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi. Temel diplomasi hakk\u0131nda hala \u00e7ok fazla belirsizlik var. Fiyatlar, faiz oranlar\u0131 ve hassas b\u00fcy\u00fcme \u00fczerindeki etkisi hakk\u0131nda daha fazlas\u0131 belirsizli\u011fini koruyor. D\u00fcn, olaylar bu hafta i\u00e7inde petrol\u00fcn varil ba\u015f\u0131na 200 dolara \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131na ve di\u011fer t\u00fcm zincirleme etkilere yol a\u00e7abilirdi. \u015eimdi ise varil ba\u015f\u0131na 60 ila 70 dolara geri d\u00f6nme, kontrol alt\u0131na al\u0131nm\u0131\u015f enflasyon, daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck benzin fiyatlar\u0131 ve daha sakin faiz oranlar\u0131 i\u00e7in bir yol g\u00f6rmek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn. Bu nedenle, daha fazla t\u0131rmanman\u0131n olmamas\u0131, maliye bakanlar\u0131 \u00f6nemli IMF toplant\u0131lar\u0131 i\u00e7in Washington DC’ye u\u00e7arken k\u00fcresel ekonomi i\u00e7in kesin bir rahatlama kayna\u011f\u0131d\u0131r. Bu \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n gaz arz\u0131 ve d\u00fcnyan\u0131n kilit ekonomik arterlerinden birinin kontrol\u00fc \u00fczerindeki yara izlerinin derinli\u011fi a\u00e7\u0131k bir soru olmaya devam ediyor.<\/p>\n
#H\u00fcrm\u00fczBo\u011faz\u0131 #\u0130ran #Ekonomi #PetrolFiyatlar\u0131 #Do\u011falgaz #Enflasyon #FaizOranlar\u0131 #K\u00fcreselEkonomi #Ate\u015fkes #Jeopolitik<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz alt\u0131 haftan\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnde, size t\u0131kanm\u0131\u015f H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131’n\u0131n haritalar\u0131n\u0131 sunduk. Yakla\u015f\u0131k 800 geminin K\u00f6rfez’de mahsur kald\u0131\u011f\u0131na inan\u0131l\u0131yor; bunlar\u0131n \u00e7o\u011fu petrol ve gaz ta\u015f\u0131yor ve a\u00e7\u0131k denizlere \u00e7\u0131kmakta isteksiz veya yetersiz kal\u0131yorlard\u0131. Bu s\u00fcre zarf\u0131nda, d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck trafik s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan y\u00fckselen benzin ve dizel fiyatlar\u0131na, artan u\u00e7ak biletlerine ve d\u00fcnya genelinde \u015fi\u015fen konut kredisi faiz […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":727,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[24],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-726","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-iran_haberler"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/726","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=726"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/726\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/727"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=726"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=726"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=726"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}