Orta Do\u011fu’daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc ay\u0131na girmesiyle birlikte, Ba\u015fbakan Narendra Modi, Hintlilerden pandemiden bu yana g\u00f6r\u00fclmemi\u015f bir \u015fekilde kemer s\u0131kmalar\u0131n\u0131 istiyor.<\/p>\n
Modi, m\u00fcmk\u00fcnse evden \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmaya, gereksiz yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131 seyahatlerden ka\u00e7\u0131nmaya, daha az alt\u0131n almaya ve daha az yak\u0131t t\u00fcketmeye \u00e7a\u011f\u0131rd\u0131. Pazar g\u00fcn\u00fc Haydarabad’da d\u00fczenlenen halka a\u00e7\u0131k bir etkinlikte yap\u0131lan bu \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131, ba\u015fbakan\u0131n ulusal bir dava etraf\u0131nda \u00fclkeyi bir araya getirmek i\u00e7in sembolik kitle kat\u0131l\u0131m\u0131na g\u00fcvendi\u011fi Covid y\u0131llar\u0131n\u0131 an\u0131msatt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Bu kez kolektif misyon, ekonomik hayatta kalma<\/b>: dolar tasarrufu. Mesaj\u0131n Hindistan’\u0131n finans piyasalar\u0131nda bir panik dalgas\u0131 yaratmas\u0131 \u015fa\u015f\u0131rt\u0131c\u0131 de\u011fil.<\/p>\n
K\u0131demli Hint bankac\u0131 Uday Kotak, bu hafta sanayi liderleri toplant\u0131s\u0131nda, “Benim g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm, olaydan \u00f6nce paranoyaya haz\u0131rlanmal\u0131y\u0131z” dedi ve ekledi: “En k\u00f6t\u00fcye haz\u0131rlanmal\u0131y\u0131z.” Kotak, “Orta Do\u011fu’daki sava\u015f\u0131n enerji fiyatlar\u0131 \u00fczerindeki etkisini son iki ayda g\u00f6rmedik\u2026 Geliyor ve b\u00fcy\u00fck geliyor ve t\u00fcketiciler hen\u00fcz bask\u0131y\u0131 hissetmedi” diye konu\u015ftu.<\/p>\n
Hindistan’\u0131n k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131\u011f\u0131 olduk\u00e7a a\u00e7\u0131k. \u00dclke, ham petrol\u00fcn\u00fcn yakla\u015f\u0131k %90’\u0131n\u0131 ve gaz ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131n yar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 ithal ediyor. D\u00fcnyan\u0131n petrol\u00fcn\u00fcn b\u00fcy\u00fck bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131n ge\u00e7ti\u011fi dar bo\u011faz olan H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131’n\u0131n sava\u015f nedeniyle iki aydan fazla kapal\u0131 kalmas\u0131yla, Hindistan’\u0131n ithalat faturas\u0131 milyarlarca dolar artt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Havaalan\u0131 \u00fccretleri, havayollar\u0131n\u0131n yak\u0131t maliyetlerini yans\u0131tmas\u0131yla y\u00fckseldi. Yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131 tatiller daha pahal\u0131 hale geliyor. D\u0131\u015f d\u00f6viz \u00fczerinde kronik bir y\u00fck olan alt\u0131n ithalat\u0131<\/b>, h\u00fck\u00fcmetin alt\u0131n ve g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f \u00fczerindeki ithalat vergilerini %15’e keskin bir \u015fekilde art\u0131rmas\u0131yla yeni bir hedef haline geldi.<\/p>\n
Mumbai merkezli Indira Gandhi Kalk\u0131nma Ara\u015ft\u0131rmalar\u0131 Enstit\u00fcs\u00fc’nden ekonomi do\u00e7enti Rajeswari Sengupta, “Ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7ta ge\u00e7ici bir \u015fok olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclen durum, \u015fimdi uzun s\u00fcreli bir krize d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015febilir. E\u011fer bu olursa, Hindistan en k\u00f6t\u00fc etkilenen ekonomiler aras\u0131nda yer alabilir” diyor.<\/p>\n
Modi’nin al\u0131\u015f\u0131lmad\u0131k derecede do\u011frudan \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n arkas\u0131nda Delhi’de daha derin bir endi\u015fe yat\u0131yor: Hindistan’\u0131n 1991’deki \u00f6demeler dengesi krizinde oldu\u011fu gibi dolars\u0131z kalmas\u0131 de\u011fil, dolar talebinin rahats\u0131z edici bir h\u0131zla arz\u0131 a\u015fmaya ba\u015flamas\u0131.<\/p>\n
O zamanlar Hindistan’\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7 haftal\u0131k ithalat\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131layacak kadar rezervi vard\u0131. Bug\u00fcn ise yakla\u015f\u0131k 690 milyar dolar (510 milyar sterlin) rezervi var; bu, d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fckleri aras\u0131nda ve Hindistan’\u0131n mal ithalat\u0131n\u0131 11 ay finanse etmeye yeterli. Yak\u0131n bir temerr\u00fct riski yok. Ancak bask\u0131lar yine de ger\u00e7ek.<\/p>\n
Petrol, gaz, g\u00fcbre ve alt\u0131n ithalat\u0131, yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131m giri\u015fleri zay\u0131flarken, ihracat yava\u015flarken ve jeopolitik belirsizlik piyasalar\u0131 sarsarken dolar talebini art\u0131r\u0131yor. Hindistan’\u0131n d\u00f6viz rezervleri, Orta Do\u011fu’daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n ba\u015flamas\u0131ndan bu yana 38 milyar dolar d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; bu, b\u00f6lgedeki en keskin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flerden biri.<\/p>\n
Petrol Bakan\u0131 Hardeep Singh Puri, yak\u0131t s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131s\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirterek gergin sinirleri yat\u0131\u015ft\u0131rmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Ancak varil ba\u015f\u0131na 100 dolarl\u0131k petrol, h\u00fck\u00fcmetin maliyesini zorluyor.<\/p>\n
Japon arac\u0131l\u0131k \u015firketi Nomura’dan Aurodeep Nandi ve Sonal Varma’ya g\u00f6re, “Modi’nin yorumlar\u0131, h\u00fck\u00fcmetin maliyesi \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131n\u0131n bir d\u00f6n\u00fcm noktas\u0131na ula\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, daha fazla rupi de\u011fer kayb\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 daha az i\u015ftah oldu\u011funu ve ayarlama y\u00fck\u00fcn\u00fcn t\u00fcketicilerle kademeli olarak payla\u015f\u0131labilece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.”<\/p>\n
Nomura’ya g\u00f6re, Hindistan’\u0131n mali a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u2013 h\u00fck\u00fcmet harcamalar\u0131 ile gelirleri aras\u0131ndaki fark \u2013 Mart 2027’ye kadar gayri safi yurt i\u00e7i has\u0131lan\u0131n (GSY\u0130H) %4,6’s\u0131na geni\u015flemesi bekleniyor, bu da %4,3’l\u00fck b\u00fct\u00e7e hedefinin \u00fczerinde. \u00dclkeye giren ve \u00e7\u0131kan para ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 takip eden \u00f6demeler dengesi a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 ise 70 milyar dolar\u0131 a\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n
Hindistan’\u0131n ba\u015f ekonomi dan\u0131\u015fman\u0131 V Anantha Nageswaran, yak\u0131n zamanda yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamada, Hindistan’\u0131n d\u0131\u015f dengelerini kontrol alt\u0131nda tutarken rupinin daha fazla zay\u0131flamas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nlemenin bu y\u0131lki “temel makroekonomik zorluk” olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. Ancak ekonomistler, rupinin sorunlar\u0131n\u0131n sava\u015ftan \u00f6nceye dayand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve yaln\u0131zca kemer s\u0131kma politikalar\u0131yla \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclemeyece\u011fini savunuyor.<\/p>\n
Yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, k\u00fcresel ticaretin yava\u015flamas\u0131, ABD’nin tarife tehditleri ve Hindistan’\u0131n yapay zeka, bataryalar ve elektrikli ara\u00e7lar gibi geli\u015fmekte olan end\u00fcstrilerde rekabet etme yetene\u011fi konusundaki endi\u015feler nedeniyle son aylarda Hint hisse senetlerinden yakla\u015f\u0131k 22 milyar dolar \u00e7ekti.<\/p>\n
Sengupta, “Hindistan yapay zeka, yenilenebilir enerji veya yar\u0131 iletkenler konusunda pek bir \u015fey yapmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n Asya’n\u0131n ba\u015fka yerlerinde g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc t\u00fcrden bir heyecan veya uzun vadeli getiri sa\u011flayan \u00e7ok fazla end\u00fcstri yok” diyor. “Ekonomi %6-6,5 b\u00fcy\u00fcse bile, daha geni\u015f yat\u0131r\u0131m hikayesi daha az ikna edici g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.”<\/p>\n
Net do\u011frudan yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131m durgunla\u015ft\u0131 ve bu y\u0131l rupiyi Asya’n\u0131n en k\u00f6t\u00fc performans g\u00f6steren para birimlerinden biri haline getirdi, \u015fimdiye kadar yakla\u015f\u0131k %6-7 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.<\/p>\n
K\u00fcresel yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 ve yazar Ruchir Sharma, yak\u0131n zamanda Indian Express gazetesi taraf\u0131ndan d\u00fczenlenen bir konu\u015fmada, “30 y\u0131ll\u0131k yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131l\u0131k hayat\u0131mda Hindistan’a kar\u015f\u0131 bu kadar [yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131] kay\u0131ts\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6rmedim” dedi.<\/p>\n
Bir\u00e7ok ekonomist, bunun Hindistan’a baz\u0131 ekonomik ac\u0131lar\u0131 kabul etmekten ba\u015fka se\u00e7enek b\u0131rakmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor: y\u00fcksek petrol fiyatlar\u0131 gibi d\u0131\u015f \u015foklar ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz olarak maliyetleri art\u0131r\u0131r, para birimlerini zay\u0131flat\u0131r ve t\u00fcketici talebini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcr.<\/p>\n
Benzin pahal\u0131la\u015f\u0131rsa insanlar daha az araba kullan\u0131r. LPG fiyatlar\u0131 y\u00fckselirse haneler tasarruf eder. Zay\u0131f bir rupi ithalat\u0131 daha pahal\u0131 hale getirir ve ihracat\u0131 daha rekabet\u00e7i k\u0131lar, bu da zamanla cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 daraltmaya yard\u0131mc\u0131 olur.<\/p>\n
Ancak bir\u00e7ok ekonomist, Hindistan’\u0131n para birimi de\u011fer kayb\u0131n\u0131 sadece ekonomik bir ayarlama olarak de\u011fil, ayn\u0131 zamanda ulusal prestij meselesi olarak g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. Politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar, keskin bir \u015fekilde zay\u0131flayan rupinin “siyasi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc” konusunda derinden rahats\u0131zlar. Dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda 100 rupiye do\u011fru bir kay\u0131\u015f, ekonomik zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir sembol\u00fc haline gelecektir.<\/p>\n
2013’te Modi’nin kendisi, o zamanki Kongre liderli\u011findeki federal h\u00fck\u00fcmeti rupinin dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc nedeniyle ele\u015ftirmi\u015f, “ne ekonomiyle ne de d\u00fc\u015fen rupiyle ilgileniyorlar” ve sadece “koltuklar\u0131n\u0131 kurtarmakla” me\u015fguller demi\u015fti. \u015eimdi, sadece fiyatlar\u0131n talebi k\u0131s\u0131tlamas\u0131na izin vermek yerine, Modi ahlaki iknaya y\u00f6neldi \u2013 Hintlilerden ulusal \u00e7\u0131kar do\u011frultusunda g\u00f6n\u00fcll\u00fc olarak daha az t\u00fcketmelerini istiyor.<\/p>\n
Ekonomistlere g\u00f6re mesaj a\u00e7\u0131k: arz art\u0131r\u0131lam\u0131yorsa, talep k\u0131s\u0131tlanmal\u0131d\u0131r. Soru \u015fu ki, vatansever kemer s\u0131kma politikalar\u0131 piyasalar\u0131n daha sert aritmeti\u011finin yerine ge\u00e7ebilir mi?<\/p>\n
Ekonomik Kalk\u0131nma Vakf\u0131’n\u0131n kurucu direkt\u00f6r\u00fc Rahul Ahluwalia, BBC’ye verdi\u011fi deme\u00e7te, “T\u00fcketiciler k\u00fcresel arz \u015foklar\u0131ndan tamamen izole edilemez ve edilmemelidir, \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc bu daha sonra daha fazla ac\u0131ya neden olacakt\u0131r” dedi. T\u00fcketicileri \u015fimdi koruman\u0131n daha sonra k\u0131tl\u0131klar\u0131 k\u00f6t\u00fcle\u015ftirebilece\u011fini, enerji ge\u00e7i\u015fini yava\u015flatabilece\u011fini ve h\u00fck\u00fcmetin maliyesi \u00fczerinde daha fazla bask\u0131 olu\u015fturabilece\u011fini ekledi. Devlet petrol \u015firketleri, artan kay\u0131plar\u0131 absorbe etme kapasitelerini zaten t\u00fcketiyor.<\/p>\n
As\u0131l tart\u0131\u015fma, fiyatlar\u0131n y\u00fckselip y\u00fckselmemesi de\u011fil, ac\u0131y\u0131 kimin \u00e7ekece\u011fidir. H\u00fck\u00fcmet, iki ay boyunca fiyat \u015fokunu absorbe etmi\u015f ve bir dizi eyalet se\u00e7imi \u00f6ncesinde pompa fiyat\u0131 art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 ertelemi\u015fti. Ancak Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc Hindistan, d\u00f6rt y\u0131l sonra ilk kez benzin ve dizel fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131; Delhi perakendecileri, daha y\u00fcksek k\u00fcresel ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndan kaynaklanan kay\u0131plar\u0131 dengelemek i\u00e7in litre ba\u015f\u0131na \u00fc\u00e7 rupi (0,03 dolar) \u2013 %3’ten fazla \u2013 oran\u0131nda art\u0131\u015f yapt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Sengupta gibi ekonomistler, herkesi yapay olarak ucuz yak\u0131tla koruman\u0131n s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclemez oldu\u011funu savunuyor. Bunun yerine, \u00f6zellikle yemeklik gaz i\u00e7in yoksul hanelere y\u00f6nelik sava\u015f zaman\u0131 tarz\u0131 s\u00fcbvansiyonlar gibi hedeflenmi\u015f yard\u0131mlar sa\u011flanmas\u0131n\u0131 ve di\u011fer herkes i\u00e7in fiyatlar\u0131n y\u00fckselmesine izin verilmesini savunuyorlar.<\/p>\n
Hindistan’\u0131n enflasyonu zaten y\u00fckseli\u015fte. HSBC, en son enflasyon rakam\u0131n\u0131 “t\u0131rman\u0131\u015f \u00f6ncesi sakinlik” olarak adland\u0131rd\u0131; “\u00e7ift enerji ve Ni\u00f1o [atmosfere daha fazla \u0131s\u0131 salan bir hava olay\u0131] \u015foklar\u0131” nedeniyle fiyatlar\u0131n artaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131 bor\u00e7lanma maliyetini art\u0131rmaya zorlayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti.<\/p>\n
Y\u0131llard\u0131r Hindistan’\u0131n ekonomi y\u00f6neticileri her \u015foku yumu\u015fatmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Ancak petrol piyasalar\u0131 ac\u0131mas\u0131zd\u0131r. Sonunda fatura gelir \u2013 ve fiyatlar ne kadar uzun s\u00fcre geri \u00e7ekilirse, ayarlama o kadar zorla\u015f\u0131r.<\/p>\n
#HindistanEkonomisi #NarendraModi #Alt\u0131n\u0130thalat\u0131 #DolarKuru #EnerjiFiyatlar\u0131 #EkonomikKriz #Rupi #D\u0131\u015fTicaret #Enflasyon #OrtaDo\u011fu\u00c7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Orta Do\u011fu’daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc ay\u0131na girmesiyle birlikte, Ba\u015fbakan Narendra Modi, Hintlilerden pandemiden bu yana g\u00f6r\u00fclmemi\u015f bir \u015fekilde kemer s\u0131kmalar\u0131n\u0131 istiyor. Modi, m\u00fcmk\u00fcnse evden \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmaya, gereksiz yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131 seyahatlerden ka\u00e7\u0131nmaya, daha az alt\u0131n almaya ve daha az yak\u0131t t\u00fcketmeye \u00e7a\u011f\u0131rd\u0131. Pazar g\u00fcn\u00fc Haydarabad’da d\u00fczenlenen halka a\u00e7\u0131k bir etkinlikte yap\u0131lan bu \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131, ba\u015fbakan\u0131n ulusal bir dava etraf\u0131nda […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":8714,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[24],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-8713","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-iran_haberler"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8713","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=8713"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8713\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/8714"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=8713"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=8713"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=8713"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}