{"id":8991,"date":"2026-05-20T10:13:01","date_gmt":"2026-05-20T06:43:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/?p=8991"},"modified":"2026-05-20T10:13:01","modified_gmt":"2026-05-20T06:43:01","slug":"bm-ortadogu-krizi-nedeniyle-kuresel-buyume-tahminini-dusurdu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/?p=8991&lang=tr","title":{"rendered":"BM, Ortado\u011fu Krizi Nedeniyle K\u00fcresel B\u00fcy\u00fcme Tahminini D\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc"},"content":{"rendered":"

Birle\u015fmi\u015f Milletler, \u0130ran’\u0131 da etkileyen Ortado\u011fu’daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 gerek\u00e7e g\u00f6stererek k\u00fcresel ekonomi i\u00e7in b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc.<\/p>\n

BM Ekonomik ve Sosyal \u0130\u015fler Departman\u0131’n\u0131n Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc yay\u0131mlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 son tahmine g\u00f6re, k\u00fcresel gayri safi yurt i\u00e7i has\u0131lan\u0131n (GSY\u0130H) bu y\u0131l y\u00fczde 2,5<\/b> ve 2027’de y\u00fczde 2,8<\/b> b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n

BM ekonomistleri Ocak ay\u0131nda 2026 i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 2,7 ve bir sonraki y\u0131l i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 2,9 b\u00fcy\u00fcme \u00f6ng\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.<\/p>\n

B\u00fcy\u00fcme Tahmininin D\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fclme Nedenleri<\/h3>\n

BM’nin ekonomik birimi, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131’n\u0131n kapanmas\u0131 nedeniyle artan enerji fiyatlar\u0131<\/b> ve finans piyasalar\u0131ndaki dalgalanmalar\u0131 bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn nedenleri olarak g\u00f6sterdi.<\/p>\n

Departman\u0131n ekonomik analiz direkt\u00f6r\u00fc Shantanu Mukherjee, Amerika Birle\u015fik Devletleri ve \u0130srail’in 28 \u015eubat’ta ba\u015flatt\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalarla \u201cenerji piyasalar\u0131na bir darbe\u201d olarak ba\u015flayan durumun, \u201cd\u00fcnya \u00e7ap\u0131nda yay\u0131lan, kapsam\u0131, b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc ve s\u00fcresi belirsiz daha geni\u015f bir arz \u015fokuna\u201d d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc belirtti.<\/p>\n

Mukherjee, tahminlerin petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015fmeye ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve h\u00fck\u00fcmetlerin yak\u0131t rezervlerini kullanarak \u015fokun bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 hafifletebilece\u011fini varsayd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n

Olas\u0131 En K\u00f6t\u00fc Senaryo<\/h3>\n

Mukherjee, \u201columsuz bir senaryoda\u201d k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin sadece y\u00fczde 2,1’e<\/b> yava\u015flayabilece\u011fini, bunun COVID-19 pandemisi ve 2007-2009 k\u00fcresel finans krizi d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki bu y\u00fczy\u0131l\u0131n en k\u00f6t\u00fc performanslar\u0131ndan biri olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 vurgulad\u0131.<\/p>\n

Mukherjee bir bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131nda, \u201c\u015eu anki rakamlar\u0131m\u0131z \u00f6nemli miktarda belirsizlikle geliyor,\u201d dedi ve ekledi: \u201cVe belirsizlik… kendi ba\u015f\u0131na ekonomi \u00fczerinde \u00f6nemli bir bask\u0131d\u0131r.\u201d<\/p>\n

Mukherjee, geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkelerin en a\u011f\u0131r darbeyi ald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, bu y\u0131lki b\u00fcy\u00fcmelerinin pandemi \u00f6ncesi ortalaman\u0131n 1,3 puan alt\u0131nda, k\u00fcresel ekonominin geneli i\u00e7in ise 0,7 puanl\u0131k bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle beklendi\u011fini ifade etti.<\/p>\n

B\u00f6lgelere G\u00f6re Durum<\/h3>\n

Bat\u0131 Asya’n\u0131n 2026’da herhangi bir b\u00f6lgeye g\u00f6re en keskin yava\u015flamay\u0131 g\u00f6rmesi bekleniyor; BM, b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminini y\u00fczde 4,1’den y\u00fczde 1,4’e<\/b> d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc.<\/p>\n

Karayipler, Bat\u0131 Afrika, Orta Afrika, G\u00fcneydo\u011fu Avrupa ve Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k’\u0131n bu y\u0131lki tahminleri 0,4-0,5 puan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcld\u00fc.<\/p>\n

D\u00fcnyan\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck iki ekonomisi olan ABD ve \u00c7in i\u00e7in bu y\u0131lki g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmler s\u0131ras\u0131yla y\u00fczde 2 ve y\u00fczde 4,6’l\u0131k \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyle de\u011fi\u015fmedi.<\/p>\n

H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131’ndaki Durum<\/h3>\n

ABD ve \u0130ran’\u0131n 8 Nisan’da ate\u015fkes konusunda anla\u015fmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen, \u0130ran’dan kaynaklanan sald\u0131r\u0131 tehdidi nedeniyle H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131’nda deniz ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 fiilen durma noktas\u0131nda<\/b> ve k\u00fcresel petrol ve do\u011fal gaz tedarikinin b\u00fcy\u00fck bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 felce u\u011frat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Denizcilik istihbarat firmas\u0131 Windward’a g\u00f6re, Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc su yolundan sadece 10 ticari gemi ge\u00e7ti; bu, sava\u015f ba\u015flamadan \u00f6nce g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalama 130 geminin \u00e7ok k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck bir k\u0131sm\u0131.<\/p>\n

BM, k\u00fcresel ekonomik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcren en son uluslararas\u0131 kurulu\u015f oldu; Uluslararas\u0131 Para Fonu (IMF) da Nisan ay\u0131nda tahminini y\u00fczde 3,3’ten y\u00fczde 3,1’e \u00e7ekmi\u015fti.<\/p>\n

#K\u00fcreselEkonomi #BM #B\u00fcy\u00fcmeTahmini #Ortado\u011fuKrizi #H\u00fcrm\u00fczBo\u011faz\u0131 #EnerjiFiyatlar\u0131 #EkonomikYava\u015flama #Geli\u015fmekteOlan\u00dclkeler #Uluslararas\u0131Ticaret #JeopolitikRiskler<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Birle\u015fmi\u015f Milletler, \u0130ran’\u0131 da etkileyen Ortado\u011fu’daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 gerek\u00e7e g\u00f6stererek k\u00fcresel ekonomi i\u00e7in b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc. BM Ekonomik ve Sosyal \u0130\u015fler Departman\u0131’n\u0131n Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc yay\u0131mlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 son tahmine g\u00f6re, k\u00fcresel gayri safi yurt i\u00e7i has\u0131lan\u0131n (GSY\u0130H) bu y\u0131l y\u00fczde 2,5 ve 2027’de y\u00fczde 2,8 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi bekleniyor. BM ekonomistleri Ocak ay\u0131nda 2026 i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 2,7 ve bir […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":8992,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[28],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-8991","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-orta-dogu-haberleri"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8991","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=8991"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8991\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/8992"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=8991"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=8991"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanak.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=8991"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}