The conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran is not an abrupt escalation but rather the culmination of a long-standing Israeli strategy to violently reconfigure the Middle East, according to Sheikh Hamad bin Jassim Al Thani, former Qatari Prime Minister and Foreign Minister, in an interview with Al Jazeera.
During a candid and extensive discussion on Al Jazeera’s Al Muqabala program, the seasoned diplomat offered a stark assessment of the region’s rapidly evolving geopolitical landscape. He highlighted the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz as the most perilous outcome of the recent conflict, cautioned against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s ambitions for a “Greater Israel,” and urged the immediate establishment of a unified Gulf defense pact.
“We are witnessing a major restructuring of the region,” Sheikh Hamad stated, emphasizing that the current geopolitical shifts are poised to define the Middle East for decades to come.
Netanyahu’s ‘Illusion’ and the US Misstep
Sheikh Hamad had previously warned of an impending conflict last year, advocating for Gulf states to pursue a diplomatic resolution with Iran to prevent military actions. He attributed the push for conflict with Iran to a “hardline faction” within Israel, led by Netanyahu, who he claimed had been attempting to draw the US into a war over Tehran’s nuclear program since the Clinton administration in the 1990s.
While previous US administrations, including President Donald Trump’s first term, had hesitated to launch a full-scale war on Iran, Sheikh Hamad argued that Netanyahu ultimately succeeded by presenting Washington with an “illusion.” He explained, “He convinced the US administration that the war would be short and swift and that the Iranian regime would fall within weeks,” drawing parallels to unsuccessful US attempts to change Venezuela’s government.
The former Qatari premier criticized Washington’s over-reliance on military strength, asserting, “America’s true power has always been in its ability to avoid using force, not in deploying it.” He suggested that an additional two weeks of Oman-led diplomatic talks in Geneva earlier this year could have entirely averted the catastrophe, noting that the current war has ultimately forced all parties back to the negotiating table.
Sheikh Hamad observed that Netanyahu has emerged as the primary beneficiary of the war, using the ensuing chaos to promote his vision of forced regional alliances and a “Greater Israel,” a plan among Israel’s right wing to expand the country’s borders deeper into neighboring Arab states.
The Strait of Hormuz: A New Global Flashpoint
Analyzing Tehran’s strategy, Sheikh Hamad noted that Iran successfully absorbed the initial military strikes and subsequently delayed a settlement after realizing it could leverage a new strategic advantage: the Strait of Hormuz. He described the weaponization of this vital waterway as the “most dangerous outcome” of the war, warning that Iran is now treating the international chokepoint as its own sovereign territory. This, he contended, poses a more immediate and severe threat to global economies than the Iranian nuclear program.
Sheikh Hamad stated that the Gulf states, rather than Washington, have borne the brunt of this crisis. He strongly condemned Iran’s attacks on Gulf energy, industrial, and civilian infrastructure, which he said were carried out under the guise of targeting US interests, despite these Gulf nations having explicitly opposed the war. Consequently, Tehran has significantly depleted its political capital in the Gulf, generating widespread public anger due to the economic and security disruptions caused by its actions. However, Sheikh Hamad emphasized that geography necessitates coexistence and called for a frank, collective Gulf dialogue with Tehran, rather than fragmented unilateral communications, to establish a realistic framework for the future.
A Call for a ‘Gulf NATO’
In one of his most direct assessments, Sheikh Hamad declared that the greatest threat to the Gulf is neither Iran, Israel, nor foreign military bases, but rather internal Gulf disunity. To counter this, he proposed the creation of a “Gulf NATO,” a joint political and defense initiative beginning with a core group of strategically aligned Gulf nations, with Saudi Arabia naturally serving as its backbone. He drew a comparison to the European Union, which started with a small number of states before expanding, suggesting a similar model governed by strict institutionalized laws respected by all members.
Regarding the US military presence, Sheikh Hamad acknowledged that US bases have provided crucial deterrence for decades. However, he cautioned that Washington’s strategic pivot towards Asia and the containment of China means the Gulf can no longer rely indefinitely on the US security umbrella. He urged Gulf states to develop long-term, interest-based strategic partnerships with regional powers such as Turkiye, Pakistan, and Egypt.
Gaza, Normalization, and a Late-1990s Secret
Addressing the issue of Palestine, Sheikh Hamad condemned the killing of civilians on all sides but accused Israel of committing a “moral and political disaster” in Gaza, where over 72,500 Palestinians have been killed since Israel’s war began in October 2023. He warned of an Israeli plot to depopulate the strip, citing intelligence that money is being offered to encourage Palestinians to leave the enclave, effectively turning Gaza into a real estate project.
While acknowledging the unprecedented global sympathy the Palestinian cause has garnered since October 7, 2023, particularly in the West, he cautioned Palestinian factions, including Hamas, to carefully consider the devastating human cost. He firmly rejected any discussion of disarming Hamas without a guaranteed political horizon for an independent Palestinian state and praised Saudi Arabia’s steadfast refusal to normalize relations with Israel without a roadmap for this – a stance, he said, that deeply disrupted Netanyahu’s regional calculations.
Reflecting on recent regional shifts, Sheikh Hamad expressed relief at the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria, revealing that he had personally advised the former president early in the revolution to listen to his people. He praised the pragmatism of the new Syrian leadership in avoiding Israeli provocations and urged it to focus on economic and institutional rebuilding after nearly 14 years of war and mismanagement by al-Assad’s government.
The interview also unveiled a piece of hidden diplomatic history. Sheikh Hamad disclosed that in the late 1990s, the Qatari leadership dispatched him to Tehran to deliver a message from the Clinton administration. The US demanded that Iran hand over its nascent nuclear program to Russia or submit to international arrangements. While Qatar acted strictly as a messenger, Tehran at the time viewed Doha as aligned with the American stance, he noted.
#MiddleEast #Geopolitics #Qatar #Netanyahu #Iran #StraitOfHormuz #GulfSecurity #GreaterIsrael #Palestine #USForeignPolicy
Leave a Reply