Ceasefire brings some relief for Iranians but economic outlook remains grim

Tehran, Iran – This week, more Iranians are returning to work as a ceasefire offers temporary relief from bombardments by the United States and Israel. However, the economic outlook remains bleak for the majority of the population.
In Tehran’s Grand Bazaar, a bustling commercial hub characterized by its narrow corridors, workshops, and warehouses, more shops were open for extended hours on Saturday, the first day of the working week, compared to the period before the ceasefire was announced overnight into Wednesday.
Nevertheless, merchants reported that sales continued to be sluggish compared to the pre-war period.
“It’s almost complete stagnation,” stated a vendor specializing in metal goods, tools, and light industrial items within the bazaar.
He informed Al Jazeera, “We received new price listings for some products from wholesalers today; everything is about 20-30 percent more expensive” compared to late January prices. He added that due to the ongoing war, it is uncertain when, if, how much, or at what prices new goods could be imported in the future.
The January prices, he noted, already reflected a similar increase compared to previous months, exacerbated by rampant inflation following weeks of nationwide protests where thousands were killed, and the state imposed a 20-day near-total internet blackout across the country.
Since the war began on February 28, the Islamic Republic has implemented another near-total internet shutdown, eliminating countless income streams for families struggling to survive bombardments on their cities and a deteriorating economy.
A young woman in Tehran commented, “I don’t understand how none of the authorities seem to consider the internet as crucial civilian infrastructure, similar to the power plants threatened by the US,” referring to last week’s anxieties fueled by President Donald Trump’s apocalyptic rhetoric.
She, an online English teacher who previously tutored students via Google Meet, is now compelled to use rudimentary local state-run intranet platforms, which prevent services from collapsing entirely in the absence of global internet access.
She expressed concerns that local messaging services and other platforms are unsafe from a security and data encryption perspective. Furthermore, most of them only grant access to users connecting via an Iranian Internet Protocol (IP), thereby excluding her foreign-based students who have left Iran seeking a better life.
The Grand Bazaar vendor also reported that their online sales have plummeted to almost zero. This is because customers can only find their website through prior knowledge or by using local internet browsers, which rarely provide accurate search results.
President Masoud Pezeshkian’s government, which had pledged to lift the draconian internet restrictions that predated and worsened the war and January protests, has stated that these limits will persist due to “security considerations.”
Last week, ICT Minister Sattar Hashemi announced that his ministry would offer “goal-oriented and integrated support,” including loans and improved internet connections, to a select number of digital businesses. However, it remains unclear how these businesses, or the millions who will not receive government assistance, are expected to operate while their customers remain offline.
Several telecommunication carriers have also revealed plans for “Internet Pro,” as the state aims to implement a long-term vision of creating a tiered internet system with varying levels of connectivity for different individuals and professions.
Widespread Lay-offs
The situation for Iran’s struggling economy could further deteriorate, as the escalating impact of attacks on civilian infrastructure is expected to become more evident in the coming weeks and months.
The US and Israel have bombed and incapacitated Iran’s major steel factories, petrochemical manufacturers, aluminum producers, airports and civilian aircraft, ports and customs authorities, bridges and railway networks, and oil and gas facilities.
Even if the war concluded today, Iran would require years to rebuild. This comes as the country faced a significant budget crisis even before the conflict and still sees no immediate prospect of the harsh sanctions imposed by the US and the United Nations over its nuclear program being lifted to attract foreign investments.
Iranian, US, and Israeli authorities continue to present conflicting demands and declare victory while engaging in negotiations mediated by Pakistan in Islamabad.
Currently, over 50,000 US troops are deployed in the region, alongside aircraft carriers and various other military assets. Washington has threatened that some of these could be used to launch ground attacks on Iranian soil to further destroy its oil and gas facilities and forcibly reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
Meanwhile, all sectors of the Iranian economy have been severely affected by a detrimental combination of local mismanagement and corruption, sanctions, two major wars in less than a year, and over two months of a near-total nationwide internet shutdown.
Technology firms are now only signing contracts spanning several months, major carmakers have laid off thousands of workers, and numerous journalists have been dismissed by both state-run and private sector media outlets.
A video game critic and online content producer from Tehran informed Al Jazeera that he and many others have long exhausted their meager savings. He mentioned trying to sell professional equipment and other belongings, but some items are not finding buyers even at below-market prices.
“With or without the war, it feels like we’ve been dead for a long time. Not only are our voices silenced, but we also have to fight just to meet our basic needs,” he concluded.
#IranEconomy #Ceasefire #EconomicCrisis #InternetShutdown #Sanctions #MiddleEastConflict #HumanitarianCrisis #TehranBazaar #CivilianImpact #Geopolitics