The Gulf region collectively breathed a sigh of relief late on Tuesday after Iran and the United States agreed to a two-week truce, temporarily halting over a month of escalating violent attacks and inflammatory rhetoric. Just hours prior, US President Donald Trump had threatened to “wipe out an entire civilization,” while Tehran warned of further attacks across the Gulf and beyond.
However, 90 minutes before the deadline Trump had imposed for Iran to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz or “be sent back to the stone ages,” the US president announced an agreement to cease attacks for two weeks. This was contingent on the resumption of maritime transit in the vital waterway, through which 20 percent of the world’s oil and natural liquefied gas typically passes. Iran had brought traffic through this critical chokepoint to a near standstill in response to joint US-Israeli attacks since February 28.
In a separate message, Trump described a 10-point plan proposed by Iran as “a workable basis on which to negotiate.” According to Iranian state media, one of Iran’s key points is for Tehran to maintain control over the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated that passage over the two weeks would only be possible “in coordination” with the Iranian military.
While negotiations are slated to begin in Pakistan’s capital, Islamabad, over the weekend, experts suggest that Gulf nations remain apprehensive that the US, eager for an exit, might agree to terms granting Iran some control over the Strait of Hormuz.
Hesham Alghannam, a Saudi Arabia-based scholar at the Malcolm H Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center, noted, “There is a quiet but palpable concern that President Trump, eager for a quick political victory, could tolerate some Iranian leverage over the strait in exchange for a fragile truce, prioritizing optics over Gulf realities.”
In a series of statements, the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries raised alarms after enduring almost daily Iranian missile and drone attacks. With varying language, they all welcomed the ceasefire but emphasized that the Strait of Hormuz must reopen and any deal must result in a permanent, long-term arrangement.
Alghannam described an alternative scenario – where a weakened, yet hardened and intact Iranian leadership dictates terms on the strait – as a “nightmare” for the energy-rich Gulf countries, leaving them under constant threat of disruption and economic blackmail. “It makes future war more likely over time, while forcing the GCC to live under Iranian strategic pressure indefinitely. That suspended tension is what makes it so unacceptable,” he added.
In remarks early on Wednesday that surprised many, Trump suggested a joint US-Iran venture could be formed to establish tolls in the Strait of Hormuz. “It’s a way of securing it – also securing it from lots of other people,” he said. The White House later clarified that the US president had considered the idea but added that his near-term priority “is the reopening of the strait without any limitations, whether in the form of tolls or otherwise.”
Another unfavorable scenario for the Gulf states would be ending the conflict with Iran still capable of striking at will. Despite US claims of military victory and assertions that 90 percent of Iran’s firing capacity had been destroyed, the weakened Iranian forces were still able to launch precise strikes against their targets, including vital energy infrastructure. On Wednesday, following the ceasefire announcement, dozens of Iranian missiles and drones were launched at the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia.
Since the war’s outset, GCC countries have largely avoided direct involvement, maintaining a defensive stance against Iranian salvos. However, Bahrain and the UAE are among those that have increasingly adopted harsher rhetoric, including warnings that patience is not “limitless.”
Concerns about Iran’s future influence over the Hormuz Strait are widespread across the Gulf. A Bahrain-sponsored resolution at the UN Security Council on Tuesday called for authorization for countries to use defensive missions to keep the maritime chokepoint open. This bid was supported by Qatar, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Jordan, but Russia and China vetoed the resolution.
Mohamed Abushahab, the UAE’s permanent representative to the UN, stated, “No country should have the power to shut down the arteries of global commerce. The Security Council had a responsibility to act, and it failed. The Strait of Hormuz cannot become a bargaining chip for Iran, nor a lever in wider global politics.”
Further escalation could have devastating consequences for GCC economies, undoing decades of work to establish the region as a safe hub for finance, tourism, and culture – efforts already impacted by the war. Analysts suggest this was one reason GCC countries intensified diplomatic efforts leading up to the conflict.
However, officials throughout the region have repeatedly cautioned that Iran should not mistake their inaction for weakness. If Tehran and Washington fail to find a solution that includes a return to free navigation in the Gulf, the strategic calculus could change.
Hamad Althunayyan, a political analyst and professor at Kuwait University, warned, “The Gulf will leave no stone unturned if Iran continues to take the path of aggression. The Gulf expects its interests to be represented, and included, in any deal with Iran.”
Even if the GCC’s concerns are addressed, there are no guarantees that Iran and the US will agree to a permanent ceasefire in the upcoming talks. While the fate of the Strait of Hormuz has captured global attention, one of Trump’s initial justifications for striking Iran was to dismantle the Iranian nuclear program. In the latest round of talks, Iran showed readiness to discuss limitations but consistently ruled out complete dismantling, as Trump desired. That sticking point remains. White House spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt affirmed, “The president’s red lines, namely the end of Iranian enrichment in Iran, have not changed.”
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