If a photograph emerges this weekend of US Vice-President JD Vance alongside Iran’s Parliamentary Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf in Islamabad, it will undoubtedly mark a historic moment. This potential meeting would represent the highest-level face-to-face discussions between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States of America since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, an event that profoundly altered their strategic relationship.
The Weight of History and Distrust
The encounter may not feature smiles or handshakes, and it is unlikely to instantly ease the troubled relationship. However, it would signal a mutual desire to de-escalate a conflict with global repercussions, avert further dangerous escalation, and pursue diplomatic solutions. Despite US President Donald Trump’s optimistic forecast of a “peace deal” within the current two-week ceasefire – a truce already contested and reportedly broken – the path ahead remains challenging. The willingness of Iranian officials to attend, amid Israeli insistence on no ceasefire in Lebanon, kept observers guessing until the last moment.
Should serious and sustained talks commence, it would also signify the most significant diplomatic push since Trump withdrew from the landmark nuclear deal in 2018. That agreement, a key foreign policy achievement of the Obama administration, was dismissed by Trump as the “worst deal in history.” Previous high-level meetings, such as those between then-US Secretary of State John Kerry and Iran’s then-Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, spanned nearly 18 months of breakthroughs and setbacks. Subsequent efforts, including during President Joe Biden’s term, yielded limited progress. Ali Vaez of the International Crisis Group notes that the involvement of more senior officials and the high stakes of failure could open new possibilities, though he cautions that the current situation is “exponentially harder.” The deep distrust and wide gaps between the two nations persist, particularly for Tehran, following previous negotiations in June 2025 and February this year that were disrupted by the onset of a US-Israeli conflict.
Contrasting Approaches to Diplomacy
The negotiating styles of the two sides are notably different. President Trump has highlighted his team of dealmakers, including special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. However, Iran, viewing these envoys as too closely aligned with Israel, reportedly insisted on elevating the level of engagement to Vance, who holds a formal position within the US administration and is perceived as a significant skeptic of the current military campaign within Trump’s team.
Iran’s approach has also emphasized indirect negotiations, primarily through Oman, a trusted mediator. While some direct conversations reportedly occurred during indirect exchanges in Geneva in February, Iranian hardliners, wary of this track, are said to have limited their negotiators’ flexibility to avoid potentially hostile exchanges. Witkoff’s previous style of often negotiating alone and without taking notes reportedly fueled Iranian suspicion. The current context contrasts sharply with negotiations a decade ago, which involved strong contingents of experienced diplomats and experts from both the US and Iran, bolstered by senior European diplomats and foreign ministers from other UN Security Council permanent members.
In the February rounds this year, progress was reportedly made with the technical assistance of International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) head Rafael Grossi and seasoned international mediators. They are said to have narrowed some gaps, particularly on the nuclear file, where Iran offered concessions including the dilution of highly enriched uranium, before hostilities resumed.
Shifting Security Calculus and Regional Demands
The recent hostilities have fundamentally altered the security calculations for all parties. Even before this conflict, hardline voices within Iran’s security establishment advocated for developing a nuclear weapon. Iran is now expected to insist on retaining its ballistic missile arsenal for self-defense and maintaining influence over the Strait of Hormuz, which provides significant leverage and a vital economic lifeline.
However, most Gulf states, who initially opposed the 2015 nuclear deal but later achieved a cautious rapprochement with Iran, are now demanding that the missiles that struck their territories be included in negotiations. Israel, particularly Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, is also expected to press for its deep-seated concerns regarding Iran’s threats to be addressed.
Echoes of Past Diplomacy and Current Realities
This moment echoes a historic period thirteen years ago when Iran’s late Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei reluctantly permitted intensified nuclear talks with the US, a policy termed “heroic flexibility.” Despite his distrust of the US, Iran’s then-newly elected reformist president, Hassan Rouhani, convinced him that severe economic conditions necessitated efforts to lift international sanctions.
Now, Mojtaba Khamenei, who reportedly rose to power after his father’s assassination early in this war, has reportedly authorized his negotiators to meet US envoys in Islamabad. However, his injury in the attack raises questions about the extent of his involvement and authority. Hardliners, especially the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, are now seen as holding significant sway. Iran’s economy faces a deeper crisis, and the nation is grappling with significant domestic dissent following widespread protests in January that resulted in many casualties.
A nation shaken by this grievous war now strives for economic and social change, and for some, fundamental transformation. President Trump has asserted that these six weeks of conflict achieved “regime change,” describing Iran’s new leaders as “less radical, much more reasonable.”
The moment of truth may be approaching for all sides. Thirteen years ago, as talks began, statements highlighted the “far apart” positions of the two sides. Iran demanded recognition of its “right” to enrich uranium, which the US rejected due to suspicions of Iran seeking a nuclear weapon. For now, the US appears to be acknowledging that right, provided there is no enrichment within Iran. History may not repeat itself, but it often rhymes.
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