For Gulf states, Hormuz uncertainty casts shadow over US-Iran ceasefire

The Gulf region collectively breathed a sigh of relief late on Tuesday after Iran and the United States agreed to a two-week truce, pausing over a month of escalating violent attacks and inflammatory rhetoric. Hours earlier, US President Donald Trump had threatened to wipe out an “entire civilization,” while Tehran warned of further attacks across the Gulf and beyond. However, 90 minutes before the deadline Trump had imposed for Iran to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz or “be sent back to the Stone Ages,” the US president announced an agreement to halt attacks for two weeks. This was contingent on the resumption of maritime transit in the vital waterway, through which 20 percent of the world’s oil and natural liquefied gas is typically shipped. Iran had brought traffic through the chokepoint to a near standstill in response to joint US-Israeli attacks since February 28. In a separate message, Trump described a 10-point plan proposed by Iran as “a workable basis on which to negotiate.” According to Iranian state media, one of Iran’s key points is for Tehran to maintain control over the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated that passage during the two-week period would only be possible “in coordination” with the Iranian military. While negotiations are slated to begin in Pakistan’s capital, Islamabad, over the weekend, experts suggest that Gulf nations remain apprehensive that the US, eager for a swift exit, might agree to terms granting Iran some control over the Strait of Hormuz. “There is a quiet but palpable concern that President Trump, eager for a quick political victory, could tolerate some Iranian leverage over the strait in exchange for a fragile truce, prioritizing optics over Gulf realities,” said Hesham Alghannam, a Saudi Arabia-based scholar at the Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center. In a flurry of statements, the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries raised alarms after enduring almost daily Iranian missile and drone attacks. While using varying language, they all welcomed the ceasefire but emphasized that the Strait of Hormuz must reopen and any agreement must lead to a permanent, long-term arrangement. The alternative – a scenario where a weakened, yet hardened and intact Iranian leadership dictates terms on the strait – would be a nightmare for the energy-rich Gulf countries, leaving them under constant threat of disruption and economic blackmail, Alghannam noted. “It makes future war more likely over time, while forcing the GCC to live under Iranian strategic pressure indefinitely. That suspended tension is what makes it so unacceptable,” he added. In remarks early on Wednesday that shocked many, Trump suggested a joint US-Iran venture could be formed to establish tolls in the Strait of Hormuz. “It’s a way of securing it – also securing it from lots of other people,” he stated. The White House later clarified that the US president had considered the idea but added that his near-term priority “is the reopening of the strait without any limitations, whether in the form of tolls or otherwise.” Another unfavorable scenario for the Gulf states would be the war concluding with Iran still possessing the capability to strike at will. Despite US boasts of a military victory and claims that 90 percent of Iran’s firing capacity had been destroyed, the weakened Iranian forces were still able to launch precise strikes against their targets when desired – including vital energy infrastructure. On Wednesday, following the ceasefire announcement, dozens of Iranian missiles and drones were launched at the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia. Since the war’s inception, GCC countries have refrained from entering the conflict, maintaining a defensive posture against Iranian salvos directed towards them. However, Bahrain and the UAE are among the nations that have increasingly adopted harsher rhetoric, including warnings that patience is not “limitless.” Concerns are also widespread across the Gulf regarding Iran’s future influence over the Strait of Hormuz. A Bahrain-sponsored resolution at the UN Security Council on Tuesday called for the authorization of countries to use defensive missions to keep the maritime chokepoint open. The initiative was supported by Qatar, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Jordan. Russia and China, however, vetoed the resolution. “No country should have the power to shut down the arteries of global commerce. The Security Council had a responsibility to act, and it failed. The Strait of Hormuz cannot become a bargaining chip for Iran, nor a lever in wider global politics,” stated Mohamed Abushahab, the UAE’s permanent representative to the UN. A further escalation could have devastating consequences for GCC economies, undoing decades of work to establish the region as a safe hub for finance, tourism, and culture – efforts already impacted by the war. Analysts suggest this was one of the reasons GCC countries intensified diplomatic efforts in the lead-up to the conflict. However, officials throughout the region have repeatedly warned that Iran should not mistake their inaction as a sign of weakness. Should Tehran and Washington fail to find a solution that includes a return to free navigation in the Gulf, the strategic calculus could shift. “The Gulf will leave no stone unturned if Iran continues to pursue aggression,” said Hamad Althunayyan, a political analyst and professor at Kuwait University. “The Gulf expects its interests to be represented and included in any deal with Iran,” he added. Even if the GCC’s concerns are considered, there are no guarantees that Iran and the US will agree to a permanent ceasefire in the upcoming talks. While the fate of the Strait of Hormuz has garnered global attention, one of Trump’s justifications for striking Iran was to dismantle the Iranian nuclear program. In the latest round of talks, Iran showed readiness to discuss its limitations but consistently ruled out complete dismantling, as Trump desired. That sticking point remains. “The president’s red lines, namely the end of Iranian enrichment in Iran, have not changed,” stated White House spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt. #USIranTensions #StraitOfHormuz #GulfSecurity #Ceasefire #MiddleEastDiplomacy #OilTransit #GCC #IranNuclearProgram #Geopolitics #InternationalRelations