U.S. President Donald Trump has declared the war on Iran “very close to over,” even as Israel and Lebanon engaged in unprecedented direct talks in Washington, D.C., amidst ongoing Israeli assaults in Lebanon. Trump also hinted at a potential second round of negotiations with Iran in the near future, despite Washington’s continued naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has cautioned that any further escalation could plunge the global economy into recession. Here’s a summary of the latest developments:
**In Iran**
**Red Cross Delivers Aid:** The International Committee of the Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies announced that a shipment of medical supplies and humanitarian aid entered Iran on Sunday, marking the first such delivery since the conflict began.
**US to End Iranian Oil Sanctions Waiver:** The U.S. Treasury stated it would not renew a temporary sanctions waiver that permitted the sale of Iranian oil stuck at sea. This measure is set to expire in the coming days.
**Tensions in Tehran:** Minor explosions have caused limited damage and injuries, underscoring ongoing instability within the capital.
**Rising Economic Toll:** Iran estimates its war losses at $270 billion and intends to pursue reparations.
According to Reuters, International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General Rafael Grossi commented that the duration of any moratorium on uranium enrichment, to which Iran would be bound under a U.S. agreement, remains a political decision.
**War Diplomacy**
**Rare US-Brokered Talks:** Lebanese and Israeli ambassadors engaged in direct discussions in Washington. Beirut is seeking a ceasefire, while Israel is pressing for the disarmament of Hezbollah.
**Potential Resumption of Iran-US Talks:** President Trump indicated that negotiations with Iran could restart in Pakistan “within days.” However, uranium enrichment remains a primary point of contention, with the U.S. reportedly seeking a 20-year halt and Iran proposing five. Disputes concerning the Strait of Hormuz also continue.
**Mixed Signals on Progress:** Vice President JD Vance voiced optimism regarding progress with Iran. Conversely, Iranian analyst Hamid Reza Gholamzadeh suggested that Tehran’s ability to withstand U.S. pressure has bolstered its negotiating position.
**In the US**
**Senate to Vote on War Powers:** The Senate is expected to vote as early as Wednesday on a Democratic-led initiative to restrict President Trump’s war powers, with lawmakers committed to advancing the issue.
**US Blockade Intensifies Pressure on Trump:** Former U.S. defense official David Sedney asserted that Iran has “called Trump’s bluff,” claiming the Hormuz blockade is counterproductive, increasing pressure on Washington as global partners face disruptions and domestic U.S. support wanes. Meanwhile, CENTCOM Commander Admiral Brad Cooper affirmed that “a blockade of Iranian ports has been fully implemented” and U.S. forces maintain maritime superiority in the Middle East.
President Trump criticized Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, a close ally, for her perceived lack of courage in not joining the U.S. in attacking Iran. “I’m shocked at her. I thought she had courage, but I was wrong,” Trump told the Italian newspaper Corriere della Sera.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced that the U.S. would block Chinese tankers transporting Iranian oil in the Strait of Hormuz. “They’re not going to be able to get their oil. They can get oil. Not Iranian oil,” Bessent informed reporters in Washington, D.C.
**In Israel**
**Israel Proposes Long-Term Presence in Lebanon:** Israeli media outlets have reported a proposal for a long-term Israeli troop presence in southern Lebanon, extending up to 8km into the country, until Hezbollah is dismantled.
**Ongoing Military Operations:** Israel persists with air strikes across southern Lebanon, including a focused effort to encircle the symbolically and strategically significant town of Bint Jbeil.
**Diverging US-Israel Priorities on Iran:** Former U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Jeffrey Feltman highlighted a widening divergence between the U.S. and Israel concerning the war on Iran. He observed that Israel’s concern over Iran’s ballistic missile program significantly outweighs that of the U.S., leading to a split in their strategic outlook.
**Italy Fallout:** Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni suspended the automatic renewal of a long-standing defense agreement with Israel, a decision influenced by increasing domestic pressure from Italian civil society. Israeli opposition leader Yair Lapid criticized Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Foreign Minister Gideon Saar for the suspension, labeling it “yet another embarrassing failure” to advance Israel’s interests with its allies.
**In Lebanon**
**Continued Israeli Attacks:** According to the official National News Agency (NNA), Lebanese civil defense teams and paramedics recovered four bodies after an Israeli raid in the Qadmus area of southern Lebanon. Additionally, five individuals were killed in an Israeli air attack in the southern Lebanese town of Ansariyah.
**Hezbollah Fires Rockets:** Israel’s Channel 12 reported that 20 rockets were launched from Lebanon into Israel’s Galilee region this morning. Some were intercepted, while others landed in open areas.
**Mixed Reactions in Lebanon:** Reactions to the Israel-Lebanon talks are varied; some hope for peace, while others reject negotiations with Israel following over 2,100 deaths. Hezbollah has explicitly rejected these negotiations.
**Lebanese Villages Razed ‘Like Gaza’:** Israeli soldiers informed the Haaretz newspaper that the Israeli military is demolishing villages in southern Lebanon using “methods similar to those employed in the Gaza Strip.”
**Civilian Infrastructure Targeted:** Strikes have impacted homes, farmland, and critical infrastructure, including Tebnin’s last operational hospital, as the death toll rises and essential services face immense pressure.
**Global Economy**
**IMF Warns of Global Recession:** The International Monetary Fund has cautioned that a further escalation in the war on Iran and sustained disruption to oil markets could push the world to the brink of recession.
**IMF Cuts Regional Forecast:** The IMF reduced its 2026 growth forecast for the Middle East and North Africa to 1.1 percent from 3.9 percent, attributing the revision to war-related disruptions affecting Gulf oil and gas exports.
**Stocks Rise, Oil Slips:** Stock markets saw gains and oil prices fell on Tuesday, fueled by renewed hopes for a resolution to the Middle East conflict and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
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