The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has recently revised its global growth forecast for 2026 downwards, from 3.3 percent to 3.1 percent. This adjustment is primarily attributed to the economic repercussions of the United States-Israeli conflict involving Iran and the subsequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which has significantly impacted the world economy. The conflict has led to considerable damage to energy infrastructure across the Gulf region, while crucial exports such as oil, gas, chemicals, and fertilizer remain largely stalled due to Iran’s shutdown of the strait and the ensuing U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports. The IMF warns that in a prolonged war scenario, global growth could plummet to 2.5 percent in 2026, with low-income and developing economies bearing the brunt of soaring commodity and energy prices. The global shipping and logistics industry is also grappling with a distinct crisis.
However, amidst every economic downturn, there are always sectors that find opportunities. Despite the grim macroeconomic outlook, certain segments of the global economy are not just surviving but thriving amidst the prevailing uncertainty. Here’s a closer look at five industries that are performing exceptionally well, either in spite of or directly because of the darkening economic landscape.
Wall Street Investment Banks Flourish Amid Volatility
Global investors have experienced a turbulent period since the commencement of U.S. President Donald Trump’s second term last year. The president’s unpredictable decision-making, often characterized by issuing ultimatums one day and altering them the next, has led traders to coin the term “TACO trade” – an acronym for “Trump Always Chickens Out”. While this recent volatility has caused anxiety among some investors, it has proven to be a significant boon for investment banks. According to Sean Dunlap, a director of equity research at Morningstar Research Services, these banks are earning millions in commissions and revenue from the surging volume of trade. “Clients want to reposition, so they trade frequently,” Dunlap explained to Al Jazeera. “Spreads tend to increase, which increases the profitability for trade intermediaries like banks.”
First-quarter results for 2026, released this week, underscore this trend. Morgan Stanley reported a profit of $5.57 billion, marking a 29 percent year-on-year increase, while Goldman Sachs posted a profit of $5.63 billion, up 19 percent. JP Morgan Chase also saw substantial gains, with first-quarter earnings reaching $16.49 billion, a 13 percent rise year-on-year. All these banks cited high levels of trading, deal-making, and “robust client engagement” as key drivers for their soaring profits. However, Dunlap cautioned that this boom for banks could reverse if volatility persists for too long, as investors might become increasingly cautious and less inclined to borrow for trades.
Prediction Markets See Unprecedented Growth
As mainstream Wall Street banks reap significant profits, crypto-based prediction platforms are also experiencing a surge. Polymarket, a prominent platform, has been generating upwards of $1 million daily since the beginning of the month by enabling users to place peer-to-peer bets on a wide array of events, from sports tournaments to elections. Polymarket’s success has been particularly notable since the start of the war, leading it to revise its fee structure on March 30 to further capitalize on its growing popularity. Rival platforms such as Kalshi, Novig, and Robinhood operate on a similar business model, but Polymarket has emerged as the standout winner of 2026, notably for its controversial allowance of users to bet on the outcomes of conflicts like the Iran war.
The fee structure change has already brought in over $21 million in fees for the platform since April 1, a significant jump from $11.6 million for all of March and $6.23 million for all of February, as reported by DefiLlama, a data analysis website for decentralized finance platforms. If this trend continues, DefiLlama’s analysis suggests Polymarket could accumulate $342 million in fees this year alone. While anonymous users have made millions by accurately predicting major events like the U.S.-Iran ceasefire, returns for typical users are often less impressive. A recent report analyzing 70 million trades from 2022 to 2025 revealed that the top 1 percent of Polymarket users captured 84 percent of all trading gains. These exceptionally high returns have prompted U.S. federal regulators to pledge a crackdown on insider trading within prediction markets, following suspiciously well-timed bets on Iran war outcomes.
Aerospace and Defence Industries Soar
Unsurprisingly, the aerospace and defence industries are experiencing a significant boom this year. Major global conflicts in Ukraine, Iran, Sudan, Gaza, and Lebanon, coupled with a worldwide surge in defence spending, are the primary drivers. Over the past five years, approximately half of the world’s nations have increased their military budgets, according to an April report from the IMF. This translates into unprecedented demand for everything from drones to missiles. Demand is particularly robust in Europe, where NATO countries have committed to elevating defence spending to 5 percent of their Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by 2035.
Consequently, the defence industry has seen substantial gains in the stock market. The MSCI World Aerospace and Defence Index, which tracks aerospace and defence stocks across 23 global markets, reported net returns of 32 percent year-on-year by the end of March. This performance significantly outpaced the broader MSCI World Index, which tracks 1,300 large and mid-cap companies across the same markets, reporting net returns of 18.9 percent over the identical period.
Artificial Intelligence Shows Resilience and Growth
Last year, the United Nations Trade and Development (UNCTAD) office projected that the Artificial Intelligence (AI) industry would expand dramatically from $189 billion in 2023 to $4.8 trillion by 2033. The ongoing Iran war appears to have done little to dampen this optimistic outlook. “Despite the shocks from the Iran war, we’re still seeing resilience in a lot of sectors like artificial intelligence and renewable energy,” noted Nick Marro, lead analyst for global trade at the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU).
One key indicator of the AI boom is the consistently high volume of semiconductor chips being exported from East Asia. Taiwan, a global chipmaking powerhouse, stands at the forefront, reporting record-breaking merchandise exports of $80.2 billion in March, a remarkable 61.8 percent increase year-on-year, according to EIU analysis. This surge was primarily driven by exports to the U.S., which grew by an astounding 124 percent year-on-year. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), the world’s leading chipmaker, further solidified this trend by posting a net income of 572.8 billion New Taiwan Dollars ($18.1 billion) for the first three months of 2026, representing a 58 percent year-on-year increase in NTD. Another metric, initial public offerings (IPOs), also reflects the industry’s current confidence, with leading companies like Anthropic and OpenAI both planning to go public this year.
Renewable Energy Gains Momentum
The Iran war has starkly underscored the critical need to transition away from fossil fuels, not only for environmental sustainability but also for robust energy security. This conflict marks the third major energy shock of the decade, following the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. According to Nick Marro of the EIU, the Iran war has “boosted” renewable energy “given the urgency to switch away from fossil fuels and diversify towards renewable sources.”
Even before the current conflict, the International Energy Agency (IEA) reported that governments worldwide were actively investing in renewable energy for geopolitical reasons. An IEA report released this month indicates that “150 countries have active policies to advance renewable and nuclear deployment, 130 have energy efficiency and electrification policies, and 32 have policies to incentivise supply chain resilience and diversification across critical minerals and clean energy technologies.” The Iran war has spurred another wave of policymaking, particularly in Asia, a region that typically imports 80 to 90 percent of the oil and gas transiting through the Strait of Hormuz. Since the strait’s shutdown, the region has struggled to secure alternative energy sources, compelling governments to implement emergency measures such as fuel rationing and price caps. Countries like South Korea, Thailand, India, Cambodia, Indonesia, Vietnam, and the Philippines have announced various initiatives, ranging from tax breaks for home solar panels to commissioning new renewable energy projects and even restarting nuclear reactors. This surge in policymaking has significantly benefited the renewable energy industry. The S&P Global Clean Energy Transition Index, which tracks 100 companies involved in solar, wind, hydro, biomass, and other renewable energy sources across emerging and developed markets, is up an impressive 70.92 percent year-on-year.
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