Trump’s Lebanon Ceasefire Takes Israel by Surprise

Ceasefire Announcement Catches Israel Off Guard Amidst Rocket Fire

As news of the ceasefire spread through Israel’s northern communities, sirens blared three times this evening warning of incoming rockets from Lebanon. In the sky above the northern city of Nahariya, Israel’s air defence interceptors shot up to block them, triggering loud explosions. Ambulance crews reported that at least three people were wounded by shrapnel in the hours before the ceasefire took effect, including two seriously.

Skepticism and Disappointment Among Israelis

On the ground in Israel, there is widespread scepticism about why the nation’s leader has agreed to the truce. Gal, a student in Nahariya, expressed frustration: “I feel like the government lied to us. They promised that this time it would end differently, but it seems like we’re once again heading toward a ceasefire agreement that solves nothing.” Maor, a 32-year-old truck driver whose house was hit by a rocket last year, added, “We gave the Lebanese government a chance and they failed to uphold the agreement; they didn’t disarm Hezbollah. If we don’t do it, no one will. It’s a shame they stopped. It seemed like there were significant achievements this time.”

Israel currently has five army divisions in southern Lebanon, and only yesterday its chief army spokesman stated they would continue advancing.

Netanyahu’s Security Cabinet Meeting and US Pressure

The ceasefire announcement reportedly took Israel by surprise, even within the government’s own security cabinet. A respected Israeli news outlet described Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu convening a security cabinet meeting with just five minutes’ notice shortly before the announcement. Leaks from that meeting suggest ministers were not given a vote on the ceasefire.

For many, this is seen as another instance of Netanyahu yielding to US President Donald Trump’s demands to halt fighting, even when the terms or timing are not in Israel’s preferred interest. Gadi Eisenkot, former IDF Chief of Staff and Yashar party chief, commented, “A ceasefire must come from a position of strength in order to service the national interests of Israel. A pattern has developed in which ceasefires are imposed upon us – in Gaza, in Iran, and now in Lebanon. Netanyahu does not know how to convert military achievements into diplomatic gains.”

Netanyahu’s Stance on Concessions and Trump’s Intervention

Netanyahu framed the ceasefire as “an opportunity to make a historic peace agreement with Lebanon” but also made clear he was making few concessions on the ground. He stated that Hezbollah had insisted on two conditions: the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Lebanon and a principle of “quiet for quiet.” Netanyahu asserted, “I agreed to neither the former, nor the latter. These two conditions are not being met. We are remaining in Lebanon in a thickened security zone […]. We are there, and we are not leaving.”

After initially describing Israel’s military campaign against Hezbollah in Lebanon as “a separate skirmish,” Trump later said he was trying to create “a little breathing room between Israel and Lebanon,” particularly as US negotiations with Iran falter and another truce period approaches.

Both Netanyahu and Israel’s military leaders have recently emphasized that the ceasefire Trump agreed with Tehran did not extend to Lebanon.

Public Opinion and Future Outlook

Public sentiment in Israel appears to lean against the ceasefire. A poll by Israel’s Channel 12 news network last week found that almost 80% of respondents supported continued strikes on Hezbollah. Furthermore, three separate surveys indicated that a majority of Israelis also opposed the two-week ceasefire Trump agreed with Iran.

Moshe Davidovich, head of the Mateh Asher Regional council, told Israeli media, “Agreements may be signed with a tie in Washington, but the price is paid in blood and destroyed homes” in northern Israel. He added, “Residents of the north are not extras in an international public relations show.”

The truce Israel has agreed to in Lebanon explicitly states that Israel “preserves its right to take all necessary measures in self-defence, at any time, against planned, imminent or ongoing attacks” – similar to the last ceasefire in November 2024, during which Israel continued regular strikes against perceived threats.

Few Israelis view this truce as a definitive solution to the conflict with Hezbollah. Instead, many see it as further evidence that their leader is under pressure to align with Washington’s interests, and that the war goals of their key US ally do not always coincide with their own.

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